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B*tch about early season temps too hot, not enough snow - Page 10

post #271 of 295
Quote:
I know it is taboo to mention climate change on this forum but at what point do we say hey it is happening?

At what point did we decide that climate should be static?

post #272 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

 I know it is taboo to mention climate change on this forum but at what point do we say hey it is happening?

 

Well, it is happening. I'm not going to jump full bore into the rabbit hole by discussing why, but most people agree the climate is warming. We don't have a 300 foot ice sheet over the Great Lakes anymore, that should be one irrefutable indication that we are in a warming period...

 

But I think what you mean is, at what point do we have consensus that climate change is affecting skiing?

 

At this moment, we haven't seen much that hasn't happened before. As Tony loves to point out, snowfall hasn't declined and has instead gotten more consistent in the past 20 years or whatever. This season is weird and warm, but that has happened in the past too.

 

So basically, it is possible we could look back 20 years from now and point at this season as the one where things departed from the previous normal. Or we could look back and see that this one was really fluky like a handful of other ski seasons.

 

Who knows...

post #273 of 295
Thread Starter 

When do we stop saying "outlier" and "anomaly" and start saying "new normal."  When do we panic for our sport?  We have some dire predictions being made talking about ski areas going out of business in the next 10-30 years due to climate change so this isn't something that is 50 or 100 years away, this will happen in our lifetimes (most of us anyway).  I guess I'll keep being Chicken Little until we get a decent season again out here to quell my paranoid and negative thoughts on this matter.

post #274 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

So Front Range folks aren't allowed to complain I guess.  These maps scare the hell out of me because all the temperature related craziness we're seeing this season is indicative of worst case climate change scenario.  I hope this season is just an anomaly and not the new normal but I think it would be dumb to not be slightly concerned.  I know it is taboo to mention climate change on this forum but at what point do we say hey it is happening?

 

It's not an indicator. It is a data point. This season's warm temps could be part of a worst case climate change scenario, but it could just as well be part of very typical deviations from norm. And I suspect I'm not the only one who, whenever there's a big snow season, tends to act like that's the norm and then be disappointed when skiing is just average.

post #275 of 295

Quote:

Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

When do we stop saying "outlier" and "anomaly" and start saying "new normal."  When do we panic for our sport?  We have some dire predictions being made talking about ski areas going out of business in the next 10-30 years due to climate change so this isn't something that is 50 or 100 years away, this will happen in our lifetimes (most of us anyway).  I guess I'll keep being Chicken Little until we get a decent season again out here to quell my paranoid and negative thoughts on this matter.

Do not confuse a bad season with a drought, and don’t confuse drought with climate change.

You just happen to live in the desert SW and are especially prone to the butthurt.

post #276 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

When do we stop saying "outlier" and "anomaly" and start saying "new normal."  When do we panic for our sport?  We have some dire predictions being made talking about ski areas going out of business in the next 10-30 years due to climate change so this isn't something that is 50 or 100 years away, this will happen in our lifetimes (most of us anyway).  I guess I'll keep being Chicken Little until we get a decent season again out here to quell my paranoid and negative thoughts on this matter.


The sad fact is that ski areas will already be out of business before solid enough data exists to say that the warm and/or dry seasons are really a change, and not just a bad string of warm and dry seasons like the ones that forced out ski areas in the past.

post #277 of 295
I think that the CO weather thread is a great example of people getting freaked by average snowfall coming in atypical amounts and atypical intervals. It is often dry in January - that is the statewide driest month of the year. Let's take this from Al @ A-Basin:



And by February 5th, A-Basin was already reporting 19" for the month, or some 40% of monthly average. It's almost as if the snow coming in big dumps instead of regular small refreshers has freaked everybody out into thinking it isn't snowing, when we so often are not fortunate enough to get full coverage so early.

How many big days does the I-70 corridor typically get in a season? How many have we already had? Would people trade a 15" day for 5 typical 3" days? Think we might right now due to low level anxiety smile.gif, but nobody would say that in Dec.

For my part, my two youngest are off school and one has a 5th grade pass, so those two are going to get their first ever A-basin day tomorrow on a warmish and breezy day. Should suck biggrin.gif.
post #278 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

When do we stop saying "outlier" and "anomaly" and start saying "new normal."  When do we panic for our sport?  We have some dire predictions being made talking about ski areas going out of business in the next 10-30 years due to climate change so this isn't something that is 50 or 100 years away, this will happen in our lifetimes (most of us anyway).  I guess I'll keep being Chicken Little until we get a decent season again out here to quell my paranoid and negative thoughts on this matter.


Those predictions are crap based upon the past 40 years actual data from ski areas.  When the outlier best season of our lifetimes was only 4 years ago, with 2007-08 being in the top 4, that's not exactly ancient history.

 

As noted before, this ski season is headed for 3rd worst behind 1976-77 and 1980-81.  In 1977 more people were worried about a new ice age than about global warming.

The above pic is from the Smithsonian in D.C., taken in October 2007!  Presumably this exhibit had not been updated since the 1970's.

 

Quote = anachronism:
So basically, it is possible we could look back 20 years from now and point at this season as the one where things departed from the previous normal. Or we could look back and see that this one was really fluky like a handful of other ski seasons.

Climate science is in its infancy IMHO.  I would not be so presumptuous to rule out climate change by an abrupt discontinuity, which many scientists think occurred at the start and end of ice ages.  So the above hypothesis, while I think is unlikely, can't be ruled out.

 

But this season on the downside so far is less extreme than 2010-11 was on the upside and it's not over yet. So the most likely scenario is that both 2010-11 and 2014-15 are relatively rare weather extremes that might occur once every 20-30 years.

 

Quote = COBillsFan:

Do not confuse a bad season with a drought, and don’t confuse drought with climate change.

You just happen to live in the desert SW and are especially prone to the butthurt.

People tend to focus on their own regions and ignore the overall picture.  The PNW, as awful as it is this year, has been conspicuously better the past ~20 years than the 20 years before that.  The past ~15 years of negative PDO tend to be good for the NW and bad for the SW.

 

As for I-70 Colorado, this season is so close to average that anyone from there who is complaining about ski conditions should perhaps take up a less weather dependent sport.

 

I live in a region that is its worst 4 year stretch for skiing since I began skiing 39 years ago.  But when I look at North America as a whole, I don't see the gloom and doom.


Edited by Tony Crocker - 2/12/15 at 11:16pm
post #279 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

 

Climate science is in its infancy IMHO.  I would not be so presumptuous to rule out climate change by an abrupt discontinuity, which many scientists think occurred at the start and end of ice ages.  So the above hypothesis, while I think is unlikely, can't be ruled out.

 

 

My point was that there is no way to tell in the moment exactly what is happening.  

post #280 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

As for I-70 Colorado, this season is so close to average that anyone from there who is complaining about ski conditions should perhaps take up a less weather dependent sport.

Any thoughts on that early Alps (Austrian?) snowpack correlating to this North American season? IIRC, last time the Alps (Austrian?) went big the east coast had a record season and the west had record or near record low seasons.

Are we seeing something similar in 2014-15?
post #281 of 295

If there is no long term correlation positive or negative between eastern and western North America, it's hard to imagine any between the Alps and any part of North America.  I have some Alps data, so tested monthly data from Tignes against a couple of North American areas, getting meaningless correlations of +7% for Killington and -8% for Winter Park.

post #282 of 295
^^^^It was this post that I was remembering.

post #283 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by NayBreak View Post

The interesting question for us folk on the favorable edge of the ridge is whether this warm season is going to generate some big spring dynamics. It's been quiet relatively these past few Spring seasons with a weak cool ENSO. You ask me, eastern CO is due to go off, favoring that continental divide microclimate and the eastern resorts as the season progresses. But then wishful thinking matters not smile.gif.

Hey, look at our forecast for the next week biggrin.gif
post #284 of 295
OK, time to resurrect this thread. It needs to spark another pattern change. biggrin.gif
post #285 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by NayBreak View Post

OK, time to resurrect this thread. It needs to spark another pattern change. biggrin.gif


Well, it made it above zero here last week for the first time since January..coldest February on record..and it's 50F here today.  So hopefully that shifts some cold and snow your way!!  Good luck!!

post #286 of 295
Yea...this split flow pattern has to go now.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME...WITH SNOW
LEVELS HOLDING AROUND 7K FEET OR HIGHER. JUST NOT A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR MARCH SNOWS THIS YEAR.
post #287 of 295
Thread Starter 

Winter ended in January this season.

post #288 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post

Winter ended in January this season.

I can't bring myself to thumbs up this post =/
post #289 of 295
Thread Starter 

Mr. Ridge is our new friend.  He likes to hang around and heat things up.

post #290 of 295
Hah - we had a good Feb.

Just need two more cycles where the ridge shifts offshore again. Starting next Monday would be just fine since it's spring break for my kids and I'll be in the mountains Mon-Fri. biggrin.gif
post #291 of 295

Just got back from Vail...baking hot Saturday and Sunday...easily mid 50s at the top!  Snowpack was still holding up since they have good coverage but rain this week and unrelenting sun and warm-temps will bring the dirt through quickly.  I keep hoping for winter's last gasp but she's going out meekly.  Ugh...what a disappointing season. 

post #292 of 295
What is this "winter" of which you speak? I'm not familiar with the term. But then I live in PNW..
post #293 of 295
Thread Starter 

Lackluster March everywhere except the ice coast.  I wonder how long Abay will make it this season.  Timberline too for that matter. 

post #294 of 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

Lackluster March everywhere except the ice coast.  I wonder how long Abay will make it this season.  Timberline too for that matter. 

 

I suppose, but Wednesday was a legit midwinter powder day, and today I had some orgasmic runs on Whale's Tail. Granted, at the end of the day, the lower part of the mountain was entirely too sticky, but that's a minor complaint when I skied such beauteous runs in Horseshoe and then as stated, went whaling with such success.

post #295 of 295
Yea...I had three great days this week, and today was good early.

Monday - excellent slush lower mountain
Wednesday - powder day...all day...
Thursday - great leftovers, winter conditions all day

Today - really nice chalk up high, but a bit sticky by 2. Guessing tomorrow is going to be rough (sticky) since the surface will be in transition again, but I'm not skiing again until next week, at which point it will be too warm without enough snow smile.gif.
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