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Too many dead skiers... - Page 16  

post #451 of 459
Quote:
Originally Posted by crgildart View Post

I think Peters looks at the science first, forecasts, weather, wind, temp trend, etc.. then if he decides to actually make the hike then goes by his gut when he actually sees the terrain and conditions in person.

As do I, as well as any responsible backcountry skier, CTKook's ridiculous assertions aside. And I would wager dollars to donuts that I have a great deal more science and experience at my disposal than CTKook. I just don't go on about it like he does.
post #452 of 459

16 Page Summary.   For the thread that got off  track.

 

TRAINING, EDUCATION and EXPERIENCE  they all count and together they become very important.  Save your life or someone else -sure  do if you don't ignore one or all. 

post #453 of 459

Sorry for pouring a beaker of confusion onto this crystal clear thread.  I can see where my science-versus-gut comment could be taken as pooh-poohing the science part.  That really wasn't my intent.

 

As others have pointed out, the "science" part legitimately includes all kinds of things such as recent winds and snowfall amounts and water content and temperature ranges and whatnot.  All of those definitely should be taken into account when making a snow safety judgement.

 

I have the luxury of skiing every day in the same general area so I have a "feel" for what the snowpack is doing through the season.  I don't think of that accumulation of impressions necessarily as being science, but I recognize that the basic ingredients can certainly be interpreted as such.

 

What I intended as the most important part of my post was being willing not to ski something that FEELS hinky, even if the science (pit evaluations, etc) indicates it should be safe.  

post #454 of 459
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Peters View Post
 

Sorry for pouring a beaker of confusion onto this crystal clear thread.  I can see where my science-versus-gut comment could be taken as pooh-poohing the science part.  That really wasn't my intent.

 

As others have pointed out, the "science" part legitimately includes all kinds of things such as recent winds and snowfall amounts and water content and temperature ranges and whatnot.  All of those definitely should be taken into account when making a snow safety judgement.

 

I have the luxury of skiing every day in the same general area so I have a "feel" for what the snowpack is doing through the season.  I don't think of that accumulation of impressions necessarily as being science, but I recognize that the basic ingredients can certainly be interpreted as such.

 

What I intended as the most important part of my post was being willing not to ski something that FEELS hinky, even if the science (pit evaluations, etc) indicates it should be safe.  

 

Excellent clarification and expansion, in response to my and another poster's questions and observations regarding in part survivorship bias and bad decisions with good outcomes.  Thanks. 

 

And, using gut as a possible veto but never a green light is a good structural articulation of how to avoid some of this.  You probably knew if not skied with "WOW" during your SLC days, and I like his Dirty Harry articulation of this point.

 

As far as the other Bob's continued expansion of his points,

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Lee View Post


No, it wasn't. Now please try to figure out how to read posts without filtering them through your own peculiar persecution complex/compulsion to seem correct, and stop putting words in my mouth with ridiculous extrapolations like that. Thanks in advance for making the effort.

 

I'm glad he's not trying to make this at all personal.  Thumbs Up  I'd apologize for  the bad feeling created by my correctly noting trees as requiring extra caution, not providing an extra margin of safety, as a general matter, except that, really, better bad feeling on the web than broken spines or fractured skulls when someone gets slid through "safer" trees.  And, likewise for people being aware of the risks of social proof and relying on "learning" derived from past bad decisions with good outcomes.

post #455 of 459

Jesus H. Christ.  I really didn't want to post in this stupid thread again, but here goes...

 

I have never, ever (at least before this thread) heard or read of someone talking about going with their gut or trusting their instincts in an aggressive type of manner.  Being oblivious is not by any means going with your gut, it just makes you an ignorant idiot who may or may not get lucky.  The only time I've ever heard it used is conservatively, as in, let's turn around because it doesn't feel right, or let's not ski this face and go with something more mellow because I have a bad feeling about it.  Who the hell ever said anywhere that they would ever use their gut instinct to trump basic observations and snow science?

post #456 of 459
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayT View Post
 

Jesus H. Christ.  I really didn't want to post in this stupid thread again, but here goes...

 

I have never, ever (at least before this thread) heard or read of someone talking about going with their gut or trusting their instincts in an aggressive type of manner.  Being oblivious is not by any means going with your gut, it just makes you an ignorant idiot who may or may not get lucky.  The only time I've ever heard it used is conservatively, as in, let's turn around because it doesn't feel right, or let's not ski this face and go with something more mellow because I have a bad feeling about it.  Who the hell ever said anywhere that they would ever use their gut instinct to trump basic observations and snow science?

 Happens all the time.

 

For instance, all the people feeling comfy about taking sidecountry laps with no gear.  Even though they own it, and may in general meet a casual definition of "experienced."  But, in their gut, they know it's safe so the gear don't matter.  If, say, TPJ or Bob Peters haven't seen lots of experienced skiers trusting their "gut" in this regard in Jackson sidecountry,, I'll defer to their views.  But, I expect they know something about this phenomenon.

 

Or, your belief that in general the trees are safer.  Not only wrong, but you've seen very clear exposition in this thread of both the why trees in general demand a heightened level of caution, and also read direct quotes from a number of the best authorities to this effect.  But, your gut, as well as social proof, keep telling you something different.  So, I have every confidence that this year you'll go and treat the trees as, in general being safer.  Hard to believe for people who are clueful, but there it is.

 

Or, any number of accidents, where people went with a "gut" feel that trees would be islands of safety when any basic analysis would have shown that they weren't.  Or had a gut that a tree at the edge of a rollover would be a safe place to dig a pit.  That kind of thing.  Or one fatality in Jackson sidecountry last season, where the party was WARNED BY GUIDES that their objective was dangerous, and went with their gut anyway. 

 

Happens all the time. 

post #457 of 459
There's a rule in my house and maybe it applies here, I don't know. Can't see what you're doing. "You can rant or you can drink, but you may not do both at once." Why do I have that rule? Because ranting and drinking feed on each other. So, go get a good beer and stop. Applies to all.

Lots of good information is in the thread. Hopefully people will see something that clicks.
post #458 of 459

Wow.

 

In defense of the Jackson side country incident, which really should not have been dragged into this shit show, simply labeling that "gut" related is pure and utter nonsense.

 

http://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/tar/TAR32_4_Cover.pdf  - go to page 4, featuring a photo by Bob Peters, I should add.

 

Unless there was another incident I'm unaware of.


Edited by JayT - 11/6/14 at 9:23pm
post #459 of 459

mod note: personal attacks have been moderated and thread has been locked to attempt a peace.

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