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2014-15 Colorado Weather Discussion - Page 107  

post #3181 of 4070
Thread Starter 
@ski otter

Snow is supposed to come in later as some energy rotates around the low.



And this weekend...

OVER THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD DRAW UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
AND THEN GENERATE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE -4 TO -8
DEGREE RANGE...SO THIS SHOULD BRING THE SNOW LEVELS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH WILL ALSO HELP OUT THE
HYDROLOGY SITUATION TEMPORARILY.

Pretty interesting for this time of year to see the forecasters talking about lower snow levels helping the hydrology situation...meaning flash flooding risk. Flash flood watches are up for I-70 in the foothills so be careful out there.
Edited by NayBreak - 5/5/15 at 2:15pm
post #3182 of 4070

Ah so that's who was doing all that terrific mogul skiing. no wonder!

 

I saw a bunch of kids this year straight-lining moguls by just brushing the tops of them with their tails as described above. Grant you it was 8" fresh snow but there were still definitely hard bumps under it. It was one of my only decent powder days this season in February at Monarch and it was the young crew who'd come over from Silverton. About five or six guys and one or two gals all skimming the tops of the moguls all the way down hooting and hollering and giggling. What a great sight it was!

post #3183 of 4070

It is obvious by the comments posted that everyone agrees fats changed the way people ski moguls.  Now that leads to the question of where mogul progression on fat skis is today?  I honestly can't answer that.  There are definitely people out there getting rowdy on the fats and trying various techniques as described in some of the posts above.  The day I see someone skiing bumps like the guys in Fistful of Moguls but on some 130s is the day I'll say the sideways progression is complete.

post #3184 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

 The day I see someone skiing bumps like the guys in Fistful of Moguls but on some 130s is the day I'll say the sideways progression is complete.

 

Well, Geoff Stump lives in Basalt--we need to get him to A Basin this weekend. :)

post #3185 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by bounceswoosh View Post



Pics or it didn't happen! I want proof!

lol I hear you. I've had a few of which I'd love to have video myself.
post #3186 of 4070
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post

It is obvious by the comments posted that everyone agrees fats changed the way people ski moguls.  Now that leads to the question of where mogul progression on fat skis is today?  I honestly can't answer that.  There are definitely people out there getting rowdy on the fats and trying various techniques as described in some of the posts above.  The day I see someone skiing bumps like the guys in Fistful of Moguls but on some 130s is the day I'll say the sideways progression is complete.

Well...not many people can mach butters across mogul tops on 30*+ pitches. What is being posted isn't about waist width as much as people who are on more center mounted all mountain skis that are at home in the park. It's not about the evolution of waist width in the bumps. It's about using bumps as freestyle terrain features rather than attempting to take a 186cm ski that is 45% tail down lines that were carved by something else entirely.

The interesting bit in all of this is the extent to which skiers are generally unable to get out of other people's tracks, which is why bumps exist in the first place. Wide skis have had precisely zero impact on this, because skiers follow other skiers any time the terrain limits their choices.

It's a group level plateau of sorts 😈.
post #3187 of 4070

Just to clear things up here (as if that's possible),  The 7 hours of the Banana, or its substitute, is run by the Adaptive Sports Center at Crested Butte.  It's a fund raiser for their programs.  2014-15 was a low snow year at Mount Crested Butte.  A couple of days  before the event was scheduled the area did get a decent dump of snow, however when the woman who runs the event (an Adaptive Sports employee) went out to ski the Banana she found it still not well covered, the patrol didn't have time for control work before the event was to start, so in her opinion the Banana was just not safe for the competitors.  Rather than call off the event, it was moved to Resurrection.  Too bad it had to be moved, but that's the way it worked out.  There's always next year.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimmyt View Post
 

 

Oh was that why? I thought it was poor conditions but i guess that makes sense because I skied it the day before (well, flatiron) and there was a bunch of exposed rocks and then they got all that snow so it was probably avy concerns, huh. 

 

 

post #3188 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by JTNSKIS View Post
 

So, did Wendy win as usual?  She purportedly puts everyone in their place...

 

Mike

post #3189 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by NayBreak View Post


Well...not many people can mach butters across mogul tops on 30*+ pitches.

 

I will mach some butters across mogul tops next season if I can.  There is nothing cooler than being like "yeah, I'm not even going to acknowledge this bump as a bump and I will ski it as I please." 

post #3190 of 4070

Did someone post this already? Holy crap. Unfortunately, the rain predicted here in the Front Range is entirely more than I'm comfortable with. Ever since the floods, standing water makes me very nervous. It's good for the baby tree we just planted, though, since I won't be there to water it.

 

post #3191 of 4070
I'm the same way regarding the rains Monique. When I saw the flash flood watch today I got a little freaked.
post #3192 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

It is obvious by the comments posted that everyone agrees fats changed the way people ski moguls.  Now that leads to the question of where mogul progression on fat skis is today?  I honestly can't answer that.  There are definitely people out there getting rowdy on the fats and trying various techniques as described in some of the posts above.  The day I see someone skiing bumps like the guys in Fistful of Moguls but on some 130s is the day I'll say the sideways progression is complete.

 

Nope.  Fat skis suck in the bumps.  There is a reason bump skis are skinny.  

 

Fat skis are just not fast enough edge to edge to turn on every bump, at least not when the bumps are tight and and you are skiing fast.  

 

Here'a a great video showing examples of different bump styles:

 

 

The problem with fat skis is they force you to make longer turns in the bumps.  As a result you can't deal with each bump individually, as Blake describes.  

 

My take: The fatter the ski, the more limited your style of skiing bumps.  Personally I think 90mm is a nice compromise.   It's narrow enough to ski a zipper line at a nice speed (for me), but still wide enough for other parts of the mountain.   I think you can get away with a wider ski in soft bumps, say 100mm for spring soft or a few inches new.   With even more snow, say a foot new, I'm happy on my 110mm skis in the bumps.  On firm bumps fat skis are just miserable in so many ways.

 

I haven't owned a dedicated bump ski in almost a decade, but I'm really thinking about adding one.   On the fat side I'm really happy with my 110mm Sickles, and I've got zero, zippo, zilch interest in adding a 130mm ski.

post #3193 of 4070
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bounceswoosh View Post

Did someone post this already? Holy crap. Unfortunately, the rain predicted here in the Front Range is entirely more than I'm comfortable with. Ever since the floods, standing water makes me very nervous. It's good for the baby tree we just planted, though, since I won't be there to water it.



Some flavor to that forecast. The foothills are supposed to get snow...levels down to 7K feet or lower...so it doesn't all come down at once. But a dynamic forecast for sure.

THEN...ON SATURDAY...WE BRING THE NEXT MAJOR NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH LOOKS VIGOROUS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A LOT OF LIFT...AND GENERATE A LOT OF INTENSE
CONVECTION...IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. PROBLEM IS...NOT
EXACTLY SURE WHAT TRAJECTORY THIS THING IS GOING TO TAKE AS IT
EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND THE OLD 00Z ECMWF
TRACK IT FARTHER NORTH THAN SOME OF THE 06Z RUNS...GENERALLY
YIELDING LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT...IF THE 06Z RUNS TURN OUT
TO BE MORE TRUE TO FORM...WATCH OUT.

This storm was supposed to be north into Wyoming 36 hours ago. Now it's coming out of the southwest with a ton of moisture to work with and energy our current storm is lacking...

Not sure where the totals are coming from Thu and Fri nights, though...
post #3194 of 4070

I was waiting for you to chime in, @NayBreak. Thanks!

 

This is Joel's summary 12 hours ago:

 

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/colorado

 

Summary

  • Moderate to heavy precipitation from Tuesday through midday Wednesday
  • Snow level around 11,000 feet
  • Somewhat drier on Thursday & Friday (but not totally dry)
  • Heavier precipitation Saturday and Sunday
  • Snow level drops to 7,000 feet Saturday night & Sunday in northern Colorado
  • Sunday AM could be a legitimate powder day
post #3195 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by tball View Post
 

 

Nope.  Fat skis suck in the bumps.  There is a reason bump skis are skinny.  

 

Fat skis are just not fast enough edge to edge to turn on every bump, at least not when the bumps are tight and and you are skiing fast.  

 

Here'a a great video showing examples of different bump styles:

 

 

The problem with fat skis is they force you to make longer turns in the bumps.  As a result you can't deal with each bump individually, as Blake describes.  

 

My take: The fatter the ski, the more limited your style of skiing bumps.  Personally I think 90mm is a nice compromise.   It's narrow enough to ski a zipper line at a nice speed (for me), but still wide enough for other parts of the mountain.   I think you can get away with a wider ski in soft bumps, say 100mm for spring soft or a few inches new.   With even more snow, say a foot new, I'm happy on my 110mm skis in the bumps.  On firm bumps fat skis are just miserable in so many ways.

 

I haven't owned a dedicated bump ski in almost a decade, but I'm really thinking about adding one.   On the fat side I'm really happy with my 110mm Sickles, and I've got zero, zippo, zilch interest in adding a 130mm ski.


That is a great video.  2:30 or thereabouts is the style I'm thinking of for fat skis.  Wide turns that get you 2-3 bumps down the hill at a time.  Fat skis almost seem like they would be more conducive to this, especially if you are skiing bumps with powder. 

post #3196 of 4070
Thread Starter 
Well, I'm gonna post this one here, too. I've stared at this framing of A-Basin so many times, tried a couple of short hikes to capture it, never had the pic turn out. Yesterday had light that changed the contours. I didn't really look at this in detail until tonight - such a cool outline of A-Basin's terrain.

post #3197 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

That is a great video.  2:30 or thereabouts is the style I'm thinking of for fat skis.  Wide turns that get you 2-3 bumps down the hill at a time.  Fat skis almost seem like they would be more conducive to this, especially if you are skiing bumps with powder. 

 

Yeah, fat skis are probably better at longer turns in the bumps, especially if they are also longer and stiffer.   Those same qualities, though, make them worse for the shorter turns you'll want in big firm bumps.  It's actually a lot easier to deal with bumps one at a time than 2-3 at a time.

 

And some bumps are so big and so deep and so tall, you cannot have fun on fat skis.  There is no way at all!  

post #3198 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by tball View Post

And some bumps are so big and so deep and so tall, you cannot have fun on fat skis.  There is no way at all!  

Dr. Seuss, is that you?

post #3199 of 4070
Thread Starter 
So....it's currently nuking at A-Basin according to webcams. They only reported 2" overnight, but the backside if the storm is coming through now. Looking forward...

THEN WE COME TO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DURING THE 24-48 HOURS THAT IT TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE STATE...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW
LEVELS TO THE LOWER FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. SOME SNOW MAY FALL
ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL
BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SNOW ACCUMULATES IN THE FOOTHILLS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT COULD TEMPORARILY EASE THE HYDROLOGY
SITUATION...BUT ONLY UNTIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN AND MELT THE YOUNG SNOWPACK. EACH OF THE SHORT
AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
post #3200 of 4070
I'm confused. Is this forecast saying they aren't sure if there will be accumulating snow around A-Basin Sat night? That'd go against what Joel is saying...
Quote:
Originally Posted by NayBreak View Post

So....it's currently nuking at A-Basin according to webcams. They only reported 2" overnight, but the backside if the storm is coming through now. Looking forward...

THEN WE COME TO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DURING THE 24-48 HOURS THAT IT TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE STATE...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW
LEVELS TO THE LOWER FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. SOME SNOW MAY FALL
ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL
BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SNOW ACCUMULATES IN THE FOOTHILLS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT COULD TEMPORARILY EASE THE HYDROLOGY
SITUATION...BUT ONLY UNTIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN AND MELT THE YOUNG SNOWPACK. EACH OF THE SHORT
AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
post #3201 of 4070
Thread Starter 
No, they are saying that if it falls as snow lower in the foothills then flooding (hydrology in the geek speak above) concerns will go down until it warms up and that new snowpack in the foothills quickly melts.

Pretty unusual to have this type of extended rain during snowpack runoff season and soils are saturated in many places, so heavy rain is a concern for flooding right now.

The question for A-Basin is how much snow falls with a strong storm basically passing directly overhead in a moist atmosphere from the SW. That's not a favorable orographics track - we want storms from the NW, hence why the wraparound flow from the backside of the current storm is finally producing at A-Basin - but this one is supposed to be stronger.

The NAM also wants to keep the track more southerly. If that happens, then focus probably really shifts to the foothills and up to the Divide where Loveland being closed is just wrong.
post #3202 of 4070

Copper being closed is just wrong too.  Not sure what it is like up top and there were some sketchy spots down low on Sat but the majority of it looks way too good to be closed.  And the forecast for this weekend is just adding more snow.

post #3203 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by ski otter View Post

 

I made a point of skiing Pali about a quarter to a third of each day I went the past three or so weeks before Pali closed.

 

There were a half dozen or more really top skiers charging the bumps at a good speed almost every day I was up there, though none taking big airs, that I saw.  About half of them were near-zippering, or close to it, a few airborn turn to turn.  These near-zipper guys would mostly stop a few times, stay within view.  

 

Still, a few skiers most days were taking faster, bigger, no stop lines, more like straight lining/sg turning. With control and authority, but only a bit of zippering.  I'd get to an overview point a third of the way down as fast as I could, and these guys would have been done gone around the bottom catwalk.  

 

These dudes were almost all on fatter skis.  At least 100+, usually 110 or more, as near as I could tell.   Twin tips often.  Some examples:

 

One very young guy casually ignoring the Pali bumps as he turned/straight lined where he pleased in the fall line, was on ~110 slime greenish twin tip skis, at least 110(?).  Freestyler but in full control, if a bit lazy looking.  Just playing.  Pretty much straight lining at times, avoiding/ignoring the bumps more than skimming them.  

 

Another was carving, then smearing, really huge carves, at very fast speeds.  Most runs he was in the nearby trees, also going very fast.  I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it.  He was a young blond guy in his early twenties, seemed like.  He was on 110 ON3P Jeffreys 186.  I know because he came up and asked what my skis were.  He said 181 Jeffreys would probably work better in the trees.  Gad zooks.  

 

Another guy was making even more determined turns, at times huge gs turns with some air, but varied, and straight lining for stretches, on really fat skis.  It seemed to me he might be a pro.  I happened to go up the lift with him and found he was on the new 116 Liberty Origins, which he said are twin-tipped and stiff underfoot like my Pettitors (but probably much lighter weight).  He said he preferred his 121 Liberty Double Helixes, his favorite ski, because they had a stronger tail, more punch.  But he'd broken two pairs and was waiting on a third.  Wish I had a video....

 

Such fat ski chargng is a pattern I've noticed at Copper the last few years that has made me pretty permanently curious about all these fatter skis I haven't demoed.  Fat ON3P, Liberty and Moment are three of the brands that stand out, and that have the sort of shape I've seen on these guys.  

 

I'd really be interested in hearing your take on this pattern - I'm not just imagining it, am I? :) 

 

My take is all those wider (and many stiffer) skis are probably pretty good on Pali most days.  Contrary to popular billing, I don't think of Pali as a bump run.  Sure there are bumps everywhere, but there are lots of interesting lines that allow longer turns, and other than the bottom third there are few really good zipper lines.   As a result, I generally ski Pali with longer turns on the top 2/3rds then switch more into bump skiing mode at the bottom.   On the whole, I think a fatter ski can be a lot of fun on Pali, except at the bottom or when it's really firm.  

 

Here's a little video for illustration.  Pali last week was very amenable to big turn until the bottom third:

 

 

I'm on my 90mm Steadfasts there, but would have been pretty happy with my 110mm Sickles.

 

In contrast, here's Mine Dump at Copper closing weekend with much bigger bumps and a nice zipper line (90mm Steadfasts again):

 

 

I would not enjoy my Sickles there, and generally avoid Mine Dump when I'm on them.  If I did ski it, I'd probably be on the sides where the bumps are smaller rather than in that awesome zipper line.   What fun is that?

post #3204 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by NayBreak View Post


. SOME SNOW MAY FALL
ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL
BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.

 

 

This was the sentence that confused me--now I realize they are talking about the plains, and not the mountains.  I think I read it and I was like, "NO ACCUMULATION?!?!"

post #3205 of 4070
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by folkfan View Post


This was the sentence that confused me--now I realize they are talking about the plains, and not the mountains.  I think I read it and I was like, "NO ACCUMULATION?!?!"

smile.gif. I usually take the stuff out about the plains in the cut and paste, but figured I'd leave it in since flooding could factor into plans depending on how this thing evolves. Not at A-Basin of course, but in a between here and there way for us day trippers.
post #3206 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by NayBreak View Post


smile.gif. I usually take the stuff out about the plains in the cut and paste, but figured I'd leave it in since flooding could factor into plans depending on how this thing evolves. Not at A-Basin of course, but in a between here and there way for us day trippers.


Haha.  My fault for reading this on my iPhone right after I woke up in the bathroom this morning.  I was not fully awake, clearly!  But maybe the panic about the potential for no snow helped to wake me up.

post #3207 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by tball View Post
 

 

My take is all those wider (and many stiffer) skis are probably pretty good on Pali most days.  Contrary to popular billing, I don't think of Pali as a bump run.  Sure there are bumps everywhere, but there are lots of interesting lines that allow longer turns, and other than the bottom third there are few really good zipper lines.   As a result, I generally ski Pali with longer turns on the top 2/3rds then switch more into bump skiing mode at the bottom.   On the whole, I think a fatter ski can be a lot of fun on Pali, except at the bottom or when it's really firm.  

yup

post #3208 of 4070
Joel's forecast is up for the day, and has lots of juicy details. I like that he's still forecasting for resorts that are closed....
https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/colorado
post #3209 of 4070

Wait, they continue to clear snowstakes after the resorts have closed?

post #3210 of 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kimmyt View Post
 

Wait, they continue to clear snowstakes after the resorts have closed?


Well maybe not---but the snow would probably melt off the snowstake in a day or two, leaving it clear for the next storm?

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