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Going to Aspen Snowmass...[early season, flying from Toronto] - Page 2

post #31 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ARISFRRI View Post

Tony Crocker, I stopped reading your excessive and repulsive answer a couple sentences in. I am a student, litter bug and i appreciate the response, I feel like T.C. is retired.... and a bit too serious for me, pulling dates from 1995--- I was like 3 years old, I asked a simple question.... I don't want to know about April skiing because I am already going somewhere else. 
Don't sweat it, and try not to take it personally, cuz you're just running into epicski culture--most active members who post during the summer are the toe who ski whatever they can find locally, but have more or less become experts at designing trips so as to get the best conditions possible with the least competition for great terrain and fresh snow while still traveling on a budget. That's why paying $1300 for a a 7 day trip doesn't seem like the point to them, and why they're critiquing the whole premise of your trip: they're looking at it from their own point of view. Heck, last season I tagged along with one such person on a week long road trip to Bridger, Targhee, and Big Sky by sharing gas, driving (I love road trips), and comfortable motel and condo lodging, for a total of about $750 in lift tickets, lodging, and fuel.

So like I said, take the advice with a grain of salt, and just sift through it to find the answers that apply to you. And now you know where to come to find out how to get the maximum fun for your buck once you've got the flexibility to get creative.
post #32 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ARISFRRI View Post

Tony Crocker, I stopped reading your excessive and repulsive answer a couple sentences in. I am a student, litter bug and i appreciate the response, I feel like T.C. is retired.... and a bit too serious for me, pulling dates from 1995--- I was like 3 years old, I asked a simple question.... I don't want to know about April skiing because I am already going somewhere else. 

Classic Millennial attitude.

Don't worry though... Its good that you locked into a trip that early. Nice job on finding that deal. If I could make a suggestion, I'd like to nominate ARIS to be the Epicski Senior Executive Consultant in charge of finding preseason deals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz0o9clVQu8
post #33 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeSchmoe View Post


Classic Millennial attitude.

Don't worry though... Its good that you locked into a trip that early. Nice job on finding that deal. If I could make a suggestion, I'd like to nominate ARIS to be the Epicski Senior Executive Consultant in charge of finding preseason deals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz0o9clVQu8

I’ll give you credit, that video was funny.  But let’s not start stereotyping and insulting different generational groups.

 

I don’t think any malice was intended by Tony or others but there were certainly comments that were not “facts” that could be found insulting, for example:

 

"If you get a December like 2011 or 2012 you will be VERY unhappy...."  Non-fact, assumes a lot about the OP, shouts, etc.  I skied CO in Dec 2011 and 12 and enjoyed it a lot despite the poor snow conditions.  As long as the OP gets the facts/risks, let him make his own determination.

 

"I'll know I've performed a successful educational service when…"  Non-fact, arrogant, insulting to the reader.  Again, as long as the OP gets the facts/risks, let him make his own determination.

 

I’m sure I’ve inadvertently insulted someone on this board too.  I hope by pointing out the above, we can be a more friendly community. 

 

ARISFFRI, have fun on your trip.  You got a real good price.  Good luck with the snow and enjoy whatever conditions you get.

post #34 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post
 

I have the percent of all terrain open (that's probably acreage) for the past 12 years ~Dec. 15.  No breakdown for blue/black/double black, but we know the double black will be toughest to open. 

Average percent open is 65%

75th percentile (top quarter of seasons) is 74% open.

Best season was 2007-08 at 88% open.

Thanks for the stats Tony.  Sounds like my prediction was a little optimistic for mid Dec and more in line with late Dec.  Accordingly I'd adjust my estimated projections to:

 

Mid Dec:

    percent runs open in mid Dec
Scenario odds of scenario blues blacks double blacks
1 10% 50% 0% 0%
2 20% 70% 20% 0%
3 40% 90% 50% 10%
4 20% 100% 70% 25%
5 10% 100% 100% 60%

 

Late Dec

    percent runs open in late Dec
Scenario odds of scenario blues blacks double blacks
1 10% 70% 0% 0%
2 20% 90% 50% 0%
3 40% 100% 90% 30%
4 20% 100% 100% 75%
5 10% 100% 100% 100%
post #35 of 53
Quote:
Tony Crocker, I stopped reading your excessive and repulsive answer a couple sentences in. I am a student, litter bug and i appreciate the response, I feel like T.C. is retired.... and a bit too serious for me, pulling dates from 1995--- I was like 3 years old, I asked a simple question.... I don't want to know about April skiing because I am already going somewhere else. 

I should have caveated my comments since ARISFRRI is a new poster and has not seen the never-ending inquiries every season from people who insist upon skiing in sketchy early season conditions but turn up their noses at the wall-to-wall coverage with often excellent conditions (especially in Colorado) in the late season.  For a student with a constrained schedule Spring Break is a much safer bet for skiing, but if ARISFRRI is already doing that and wants to take a shot at another ski trip I can understand that.

 

Yes I'm retired now.  However I was married to a teacher and raised 2 kids so had nearly 2 decades of schedule-constrained ski trips.  16 of them were at spring break (only one with bad conditions), 2 during Christmas week (both seriously degraded by crowd issues) and 2 before Christmas, both scheduled late when I knew there was snow.

 

I stand by my

Quote:
"I'll know I've performed a successful educational service when…"

comments as a general recommendation, but I can see how a new poster might be offended as being personally directed.


Edited by Tony Crocker - 7/24/14 at 12:05pm
post #36 of 53
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeSchmoe View Post


Classic Millennial attitude.

I am not one to let my emotions get the best of me and I apologize to anyone who has given me great advice: Nathan, litterbug and even Tony Crocker. But JoeSchmoe your an electrical engineer, you have that typical decorum of an engineer. No one likes you. No one liked you in university when you wore that stupid leather jacket around campus thinking you were cool.Throughout your whole university career you probably spoke to one girl, and chances are you are married to her now. And now you just go on forums like this one,and come into threads like this not adding any value what so ever. You are right my generation is quite messed up, but who raised us? 

 

Millennial Attitude

 

(And I know, you have probably picked out 15 spelling mistakes in my post, don't worry I get it. Your an engineer) 

 

Once again, I am sorry to anyone else that has posted in the thread, I have received the information I need. (Nathan, litterbug, i truly apologize)

post #37 of 53

I guess I think Tony was spot on in the first place. It seems that rather than asking "a simple question", you asked three questions. If all you wanted was affirmation for your booking, you did not need to ask those questions. Tony gave you the straight scoop. Including an answer to the third (seemingly meant in jest) question of whether you should cancel or not.

 

Odds are you can and will have fun. If you are realistic. CO rarely has what I consider a deep snowpack - even peak season. So if I were going when you are, I'd expect to enjoy a bunch of groomers on a great mountain or two. And enjoy some good eating (assuming there is budget for doing that in Aspen). And I'd hope for some luck wrt snow so there's perhaps some off piste skiing. And I'd at least have the notion of a backup run to Loveland/A-Basin in my back pocket...

 

Personally, I am with Tony. With a twist. I might be willing to book this early - but I'd do it knowing that the odds are not in my favor for great off piste skiing. And I'd be comfortable and flexible with that - including skiing blue cruisers with a smile on my face. And generally I'd go places that offered other things or brought me together with old friends so that the entire trip was not hinged on the weather gods favoring me. And if I did get lucky, all the better.

 

Bottom line - every year this sort of thing pops up regarding early season trips. And every year, an assortment of seasoned hands point out the risks with early season bookings. It is what it is. As with many other weather driven activities - if you are good with whichever way the dice roll, you can have a fun time. 

post #38 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ARISFRRI View Post
 

I am not one to let my emotions get the best of me and I apologize to anyone who has given me great advice: Nathan, litterbug and even Tony Crocker. But JoeSchmoe your an electrical engineer, you have that typical decorum of an engineer. No one likes you. No one liked you in university when you wore that stupid leather jacket around campus thinking you were cool.Throughout your whole university career you probably spoke to one girl, and chances are you are married to her now. And now you just go on forums like this one,and come into threads like this not adding any value what so ever. You are right my generation is quite messed up, but who raised us? 

 

Millennial Attitude

 

(And I know, you have probably picked out 15 spelling mistakes in my post, don't worry I get it. Your an engineer) 

 

Once again, I am sorry to anyone else that has posted in the thread, I have received the information I need. (Nathan, litterbug, i truly apologize)


people have been trying to answer  your question, no need to be insulting them.


Edited by Bill Miles - 7/24/14 at 6:47pm
post #39 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ARISFRRI View Post

I am not one to let my emotions get the best of me and I apologize to anyone who has given me great advice: Nathan, litterbug and even Tony Crocker. But JoeSchmoe your an electrical engineer, you have that typical decorum of an engineer. No one likes you. No one liked you in university when you wore that stupid leather jacket around campus thinking you were cool.Throughout your whole university career you probably spoke to one girl, and chances are you are married to her now. And now you just go on forums like this one,and come into threads like this not adding any value what so ever. You are right my generation is quite messed up, but who raised us? 

Millennial Attitude

(And I know, you have probably picked out 15 spelling mistakes in my post, don't worry I get it. Your an engineer) 

Once again, I am sorry to anyone else that has posted in the thread, I have received the information I need. (Nathan, litterbug, i truly apologize)

No leather jackets here. I was a varsity athlete and didn't have Engineer friends... I barely went to class. I actually got voted joint social chair for the men's/women's team without even going to the agm.

I'm still in my 30's and don't have kids in the workforce. Haha!

I did okay with the ladies in my day, and didn't settle down with my beautiful wife until my late 20's.

Haha! Welcome to epicski!
post #40 of 53
Quote:
Including an answer to the third (seemingly meant in jest) question of whether you should cancel or not.

Yes, my answer was:

Quote:
I'm not saying the OP should cancel if there are penalties in doing so, which is nearly always the case where the airlines are involved.

Because I've been reading Shredhead's posts for few years, and Aspen seems to ski fairly well on a modest snowpack, even if not that much of the extreme terrain is ready for prime time.  And as spindrift notes, Aspen is one of those places where there are lots of other attractions if the snow is not great. 

 

I'll also point out that if the OP had scheduled into Taos or Crested Butte in this same time frame, I WOULD have told him to cancel, because the odds are so stacked against even half of terrain being open. 

 

So my intent (which should have been clearer originally) was:

1) The OP is rolling the dice here.  Most of the time it should work out OK but there's a small ~15% risk it could be very bad.  Not enough risk to bail out if there are costs incurred in doing so.

2) Next time you might want to wait until November to commit $ so you can choose a place that already has snow.  Don't make a habit of advance booking in this time frame because you will eventually get burned. 

3) If you're constrained by $ or schedule to one destination trip a year, the late season is safer than the early season at most places.


Edited by Tony Crocker - 7/25/14 at 1:29pm
post #41 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post
 

................................ and 2 before Christmas, both scheduled late when I knew there was snow.

 

 

This is the approach I have taken with early season trips to  Summit County & Vail for the past 16 years or so.  Vail typically had better snow earlier than most of Summit County. There has never been a problem with booking late as long as you don't plan to stay later than Dec 26.  Then things get a little tough.

post #42 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ARISFRRI View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeSchmoe View Post


Classic Millennial attitude.

 

JoeSchmoe your an electrical engineer, you have that typical decorum of an engineer. No one likes you. No one liked you in university when you wore that stupid leather jacket around campus thinking you were cool.Throughout your whole university career you probably spoke to one girl, and chances are you are married to her now. And now you just go on forums like this one,and come into threads like this not adding any value what so ever. You are right my generation is quite messed up, but who raised us? 

 

Millennial Attitude

 

(And I know, you have probably picked out 15 spelling mistakes in my post, don't worry I get it. Your an engineer) 

 

This kind of tone and personal attack may be how it's done elsewhere on the net. It is not cool here.

post #43 of 53

Its ALL about managing expectations. I just booked a xmas trip as well. My goal with this trip is to take a family vacation with my wife and two girls (age 7 and 3) all beginner skiers and get some warm up for me. I wanted to find a low crowd environment so I chose Solitude before xmas (Dec 18-23). The kids love swimming and there is a heated pool right in front of our condo as well as a game room. So my expectation is to ski some groomers, get the kids and wife in lessons so as to further their development and love of skiing, not miss too many school days, and spend some quality family time. If Utah has a nice early season and I get a big dump while I am there would just be icing on the cake. If its WROD Id be a little bummed

post #44 of 53
Quote:
I just booked a xmas trip as well. My goal with this trip is to take a family vacation with my wife and two girls (age 7 and 3) all beginner skiers and get some warm up for me. I wanted to find a low crowd environment so I chose Solitude before xmas (Dec 18-23).

This is an even safer speculation than the OP's.  The "very bad/WROD" scenario with Solitude is probably under 10%.  I still wonder why the compulsion to book in July though.  Will Solitude Dec. 18-23 sell out in advance?  The OC is within drive distance of Salt Lake for a one week trip (I always drive to my Snowbird timeshare week), so no need to put yourself at the mercy of airline inflexibility IMHO.  And with 4 people it's going to be a lot cheaper to drive than fly.

post #45 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post
 
Quote:
I just booked a xmas trip as well. My goal with this trip is to take a family vacation with my wife and two girls (age 7 and 3) all beginner skiers and get some warm up for me. I wanted to find a low crowd environment so I chose Solitude before xmas (Dec 18-23).

[snip] I still wonder why the compulsion to book in July though. [snip]

 

Tony, not everyone has family that is as gung-ho about skiing as your family. Often there is a long campaign at one level of stealth or another, with more or less reluctant participants, to get explicit or implicit buy-in to spending a good chunk of family time and budget on skiing. When and if that happens you need to LOCK IT IN WITHOUT FURTHER ADO before someone changes her mind and decides it would be more fun to go to the Vineyard next month or re-pave the driveway.

post #46 of 53
Quote:
Often there is a long campaign at one level of stealth or another, with more or less reluctant participants, to get explicit or implicit buy-in to spending a good chunk of family time and budget on skiing.

An excellent point, to which I can relate.  My ski time increased 50% after I got divorced in 2004.:)  agreen also has kids at the ages where he might create new ski addicts who will eagerly support such trips in the future. 

post #47 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

My ski time increased 50% after I got divorced in 2004.smile.gif  

Ouch, that's a stat I'd be better off not knowing!
post #48 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by qcanoe View Post
 

 

Tony, not everyone has family that is as gung-ho about skiing as your family. Often there is a long campaign at one level of stealth or another, with more or less reluctant participants, to get explicit or implicit buy-in to spending a good chunk of family time and budget on skiing. When and if that happens you need to LOCK IT IN WITHOUT FURTHER ADO before someone changes her mind and decides it would be more fun to go to the Vineyard next month or re-pave the driveway.

 

That gender assumption strikes me as a bit presumptuous ( or should I simply say sexist? ) in the general case. Among the people I know, that assumption would be wrong quite often. I ski a bunch of places. Many at the initial instigation of my spouse (check out the Iceland TRs among others...). And I/we would ski even more places if I were as energetic as she is about packing up and trying out new places. Just sayin'...

 

I'd hate to have to play stealth games to lock in a ski trip.

post #49 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by spindrift View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by qcanoe View Post

 

Tony, not everyone has family that is as gung-ho about skiing as your family. Often there is a long campaign at one level of stealth or another, with more or less reluctant participants, to get explicit or implicit buy-in to spending a good chunk of family time and budget on skiing. When and if that happens you need to LOCK IT IN WITHOUT FURTHER ADO before someone changes her mind and decides it would be more fun to go to the Vineyard next month or re-pave the driveway.

That gender assumption strikes me as a bit presumptuous ( or should I simply say sexist? ) in the general case. Among the people I know, that assumption would be wrong quite often.

Totally guilty as charged. I intended the "her" part as a bit of a goof, but did not communicate that well. Also not talking in very specific terms about my family. More just wanting always to fight the habit some Bears have of assuming that we all have families that live and breathe skiing. Many of us don't.
post #50 of 53

In fairness to qcanoe, agreen did refer to "my wife" in the post that prompted the current discussion. 

 

Quote:
Ouch, that's a stat I'd be better off not knowing!

Those of you who met Liz at the recent Mammoth/Tahoe Gathering know that I now have a SO who enables rather than resists my ski addiction. :D

post #51 of 53

In this case, qcanoe was right on the mark. I actually booked the trip without even showing her the condo we were staying and only very limited casual discussion such as "maybe we can try out Utah for xmas this year?" She didn't emphatically say no so I took it as a yes.

 

Tony, my reasons for early booking is I really liked the condo and the price seemed low and I want good airfare times due to traveling with the little ones. Its the prime times that go first and then your stuck with late night flights or early am flights. There is no way I would do the 10 hour drive with the kiddos. The younger one has Get Me Out of the Car Seat syndrome and the older one has the common Are We There Yet syndrome. I do a lot of last minute trips but they are usually solo and most of my skiing is done Feb-April. This year I may try Crystal mtn in May

post #52 of 53
Quote:
There is no way I would do the 10 hour drive with the kiddos.

That makes life difficult in the OC considering Mammoth is the obvious weekend ski destination at ~6 hours drive distance.  My older son, the avid skier, tended to sleep in the car, particularly after dark.    In the more modern era, the built-in DVD/video game system is probably a good idea for long road trips with kids. 

 

In my family years the one-week destination trips at spring break were by air though they were also farther away than Salt Lake.  However, we also averaged about 3 weekends at Mammoth each season, so still lots of driving. 

post #53 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by agreen View Post
 

In this case, qcanoe was right on the mark. I actually booked the trip without even showing her the condo we were staying and only very limited casual discussion such as "maybe we can try out Utah for xmas this year?" She didn't emphatically say no so I took it as a yes.

 

Tony, my reasons for early booking is I really liked the condo and the price seemed low and I want good airfare times due to traveling with the little ones. Its the prime times that go first and then your stuck with late night flights or early am flights. There is no way I would do the 10 hour drive with the kiddos. The younger one has Get Me Out of the Car Seat syndrome and the older one has the common Are We There Yet syndrome. I do a lot of last minute trips but they are usually solo and most of my skiing is done Feb-April. This year I may try Crystal mtn in May

 

If and when you do ski Crystal in May, give a shout out or PM. 

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