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Super El Nino next season? - Page 19

post #541 of 555
Quote:
Originally Posted by qcanoe View Post

We are in the classic New England "bad" pattern right now. Tonight it will be below zero F. for much of the state, with clear skies and radiational cooling. Wicked cold. Hard to imagine it possibly raining. Tomorrow the precipitation comes, starting as snow, but ultimately bringing a strong southerly flow with it. 36 hours out temps will be in the forties in many places and we will be back to rain on top of the new wet snow. Then right back in the deep freeze.

Productive of gloom and angst.
post #542 of 555
Quote:
Originally Posted by qcanoe View Post
 
We are in the classic New England "bad" pattern right now. Tonight it will be below zero F. for much of the state, with clear skies and radiational cooling. Wicked cold. Hard to imagine it possibly raining. Tomorrow the precipitation comes, starting as snow, but ultimately bringing a strong southerly flow with it. 36 hours out temps will be in the forties in many places and we will be back to rain on top of the new wet snow. Then right back in the deep freeze.

 

I call those "heartbreaker storms" because they lead you on, and then....

 

Back in the old days, back before cell phones and weatherbug everywhere, back when all real ski bars tuned the TV to The Weather Channel exclusively, it was easier to get fooled.  About 30 years ago a co-worker and I went up from Boston to Vermont to sneak in a ski day before Christmas.  We drove separately because he was going directly from there to his girlfriend's parents' house in New Jersey.  It was a great day.  It snowed heavily all day.  We couldn't give that up.

 

At the end of the ski day, we found a bank of pay phones.  I called Central Reservations to find a room, while he called his girlfriend to break the news that he wouldn't be spending Christmas Eve with her family.  What could we do?  It was absolutely puking snow.  We went somewhere for happy hour (Weather Channel? check!) and then somewhere else for a long leisurely dinner.  About 11 pm we walked out of the restaurant  and it was raining.  Hard.

 

My friend just looked at me and in a low voice said "Goodbye.  I have to go to New Jersey" and drove away.

post #543 of 555
Quote:
Originally Posted by qcanoe View Post


We are in the classic New England "bad" pattern right now. Tonight it will be below zero F. for much of the state, with clear skies and radiational cooling. Wicked cold. Hard to imagine it possibly raining. Tomorrow the precipitation comes, starting as snow, but ultimately bringing a strong southerly flow with it. 36 hours out temps will be in the forties in many places and we will be back to rain on top of the new wet snow. Then right back in the deep freeze.

sounds like tahoe also

post #544 of 555
I don't know if weather statistics would back me up down here in SW Pa. But it sure seems like we have less sustained periods of cold and snowy weather in the last 10 years . We yo-yo from cold and occasionally snowy to warm , mild and wet all winter . The good ski weather and conditions get wiped out constantly and the local areas have to pretty much start almost all over again to achieve decent conditions.

I give Seven Springs credit , despite the forecast of rain and mild temps Sat and Sunday they were blowing snow fast and furious all week. It's a shame and frustrating how skier cruel the weather can be.
post #545 of 555
Quote:
Originally Posted by roundturns View Post

But it sure seems like we have less sustained periods of cold and snowy weather in the last 10 years . We yo-yo from cold and occasionally snowy to warm , mild and wet all winter . The good ski weather and conditions get wiped out constantly and the local areas have to pretty much start almost all over again to achieve decent conditions.

Yep. Herein lies the problem with using historical data in multiple regression models to forecast a future with climate change. Besides general trend upward, so systematic error, more yo-yos, e.g., variance, lumpier distribution, so more noise in prediction. Which is why - have you noticed - local forecasts are mostly underestimating highs and overestimating lows, but also have tended to be caught by surprise more; lots of "anomalous events." If I were a climatologist, I'd upgrade my meds, immediately. 

post #546 of 555
Quote:
Herein lies the problem with using historical data in multiple regression models to forecast a future with climate change.

Sorry, not buying that for western ski areas, which show zero trend in snowfall since the consensus cooler 1970's.  Upper New England does not show a declining snowfall trend either.  It's  fact of life that some storms in the Northeast are sourced in the Gulf of Mexico with a rain/snow line as high as 8,000 feet and will thus deliver rain all the way to the Quebec City ski areas. 

 

It is certainly possible that the rain/snow balance has been moved some in marginal regions like the mid-Atlantic.   But I wouldn't assume that in view of snowfall not declining in Washington State and Vermont ski areas that have always had plenty of both rain and snow in the winter.

post #547 of 555
Well FWIW snowfall in WA is about 50% of normal/historical levels for this time of year. It was similar last year, where some areas haven't (Snoqualmie Summit) haven't opened yet. We have been in a series of cycles with snow, then rain and more rain. Then really really cold. Rinse, repeat.

Here's an interesting post from atmospheric scientist Cliff Mass. Do not mess with Hawaiian deities.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/01/rain-in-our-mountains-revenge-of-lono.html?m=1
post #548 of 555
We're running ahead in Montana.

mt_swepctnormal_update.png


And about to get MORE!
post #549 of 555
Quote:
We're running ahead in Montana.

Just another demonstration of how worthless forecasts are 3 months in advance. So doesn't that pre-season angst seem silly now in retrospect?  

post #550 of 555
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post
 

Just another demonstration of how worthless forecasts are 3 months in advance. So doesn't that pre-season angst seem silly now in retrospect?  

 

Not here in the PNW it doesn't. ;)

post #551 of 555
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

Quote:
We're running ahead in Montana.
Just another demonstration of how worthless forecasts are 3 months in advance. So doesn't that pre-season angst seem silly now in retrospect?  

I'm going with the carrying an umbrella theory. Preparing for the worst means you're ready for it and thrilled when it turns out wrong. And it has definitely been warmer than usual, and way warmer than last year.

Now, hopefully my roof doesn't collapse tonight... The snow on the deck railing was at a record high days ago and still hasn't fallen over or blown off, telling me it's dense and moisture laden. I'm starting to wish we had a trapeze installed to climb up there. Hopefully, the builder followed the architectural plans.

Edit: deck railing this AM:
10911405_10152937985372488_7618623702246773304_o.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoibCJ9
Edited by sibhusky - 1/5/15 at 7:41am
post #552 of 555
But I will say, this snow is making it tough to evaluate the new front side skis... Not such a bad problem to have.
post #553 of 555
post #554 of 555

I am gonna rip the sh** outta bachelor cause there is no snow in Tahoe

Maybe drink some 10 barrel too

We need snow dammit
post #555 of 555
So much for El Niño. More like El Nada
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