Are you talking about the rope at the back entrance. That rope saved my ass many times in the last three decades. Especially when I staggered out after a few too many.
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Taos in Jan/Feb? - Page 8post #211 of 63911/2/14 at 8:00pm
Gear mentioned in this thread:post #212 of 63911/3/14 at 1:54pmpost #213 of 63911/3/14 at 2:31pmpost #214 of 63911/3/14 at 5:33pmpost #215 of 63911/6/14 at 4:32pm
So everyone seems to be in agreement that we will be seeing an El Nino start to develop this fall/winter, albeit a weak one. So that's all fine and dandy, but then I read long range forecasts and they say that the northern US should continue getting frequent storms every few days while the southern US experiences mainly dry weather for the foreseeable future (Nov. 12-22).
We're getting pretty close to the season starting, and I'm beginning to worry.. Can anyone explain what's going on?post #216 of 63911/7/14 at 11:23am
The MEI measure of El Nino weakened further to +.360 for SEP/OCT. At this point there is really no basis for trusting any kind of long range forecast. The best assumption is (what's happened so far this season ) + (what's the long term experience for the resort in question for the rest of the season).
"What's happened so far this season" is much warmer and drier than normal over nearly all of western North America. But it's Nov. 7, so there's really no cause for angst so early in the season. Since most October snow melts off, it's hard to make the case that we're more than a week "behind schedule" in building a normal winter snowpack.
As for "What's the long term experience for the resort in question," I stand by my usual recommendation of Taos for February through closing date.post #217 of 63911/7/14 at 11:43am
It is extra warm and dry here in the panhandle but Taos is looking good for 11/7. Hang in there, we get whacked next Tuesday with strong cold and have faith the hill will fill!post #218 of 63911/7/14 at 11:51ampost #219 of 63911/14/14 at 1:01pmpost #220 of 63911/15/14 at 1:31pm
"Can anyone explain what's going on?" - ck675 one week ago regarding the weather.
I'm in Louisiana at the moment. A lifeguard at an unheated outdoor military swimming pool that remains open for training purposes. The weather here has turned from pleasant mid 70's in the daytime to near freezing day, 20's at night. Near constant overcast. Winds much of the time somewhat easterly - feeding the lows that have been consistently developing over the Midwest.
My take on what is happening - the Jet Stream's flow out of the north and directly southward is over the high plains, not over the Rockies. Whatever moisture lingers around the southern deserts of Western New Mexico and eastern Arizona from the weak El Nino can not develop into any significant precipitation in the Sangre de Cristos because there is no triggering mechanism - as in an infusuion of cold air from the jet stream. The jet stream trigger is to the east in the high plains, and it is causing storms with heavy precip to happen over the eastern plains. These consistent easterlies in Louisiana feed the plains storms. I feared this situation developing a month ago. My skepticism about snowfall at Taos grows with each day.
The big eastern resorts will have more snow than a number of Western resorts. An absolutely stellar season is predicted for Europe.
Devote close attention to this current disturbance. It will indicate snowfall likelihood over the next 60 days in my opinion. I think Taos will get less than 3 inches. It will break my heart if I'm right.post #221 of 63911/15/14 at 2:52pmpost #222 of 63911/15/14 at 5:11pmQuote:
Sure hope you're wrong... Winter Storm Warning says 6-12" from tonight through tomorrow.post #223 of 63911/15/14 at 5:22pmpost #224 of 63911/15/14 at 5:42pmpost #225 of 63911/15/14 at 7:24pmpost #226 of 63911/15/14 at 8:34pmQuote:
I've skied Taos at different time ranging from early Jan to closing day. Always have a blast of a time. Never had a bad day.
But then I was told by a bear at the bird last year what I call good snow is actually what she called crap.
My reply was just ignore the rocks & bushes since we don't plan to ski over them anyway. The snow in between looked just fine to me.
I never pay attention to base depth. A 6 foot base won't cover a 7 foot rock. I've learned not to ski over rocks and bushes - not a very pleasant feel. Just focus and enjoy the snow in between.post #227 of 63911/16/14 at 12:00amQuote:
Yep, the trip I had last year on a 38" base was amazing. I got to hike a bunch and had access to a ton of expert terrain. Even Kachina.post #228 of 63911/16/14 at 7:43am
Storm went by. Less than two inches.
The surf at Cape Hatteras might be a better option. The secondary storm from this system is seriously building here in the deep south. I'm really glad I trenched out the swampy side of my house this year. Over 4 inches of rain in 6 hours and still coming down in sheets. A tertiary system will form over the Atlantic off the Carolinas within the next 36 hrs. 10 to 15 foot swells offshore that will wrap into the South Carolina bight. Always good to have options.
As Baba Ram Dass would say, time to "Be here now" somewhere else.post #229 of 63911/16/14 at 9:49ampost #230 of 63911/16/14 at 1:31pmpost #231 of 63911/16/14 at 1:39pmpost #232 of 63911/16/14 at 5:22pmpost #233 of 63911/17/14 at 8:47ampost #234 of 63911/24/14 at 9:30ampost #235 of 63911/24/14 at 10:42am
Thanks for the "Head's up". I checked noaa radar after the Patriot's game and I saw a distinct band of precip over Ski Santa Fe with this tiny little blue blip just se of Wheeler Peak.
Scooore!!post #236 of 63912/6/14 at 3:09pm
Big storm in the forecast next weekend for TSV and northern NM with significant snow, per snowforecast.com.post #237 of 63912/6/14 at 3:20pm
Let's see how this thing will pan out. Appreciate the head's up once again. Temps still in the 70's in Louisiana. I'm still lingering on the tennis court. Time to find all my ski crap.post #238 of 63912/13/14 at 1:55pmpost #239 of 63912/13/14 at 2:56pm
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- Taos in Jan/Feb?
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