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meteostar is down...need a great long range forecast site.

post #1 of 8
Thread Starter 
I am trying to plan an Alta/Snowbird trip in the next few weeks and I need a good weather model site to plan.
Meteostar has been incredibly accurate in the past but has been down for the last few days.
Anyone know another site that has an accurate 16-20 day model?
post #2 of 8
I personally do not think that you can have much information from a forecast that is longer than 5-7 days. You might try Opensnow.

http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/utah

Mike
post #3 of 8
Thread Starter 
i used to think that as well. Until I got turned on to Meteostar from a post here on Epic about 5 years ago.
since then I have used it to plan 3 EPIC trips to Alta. Last trip it snowed most days and concluded with a
36"+ overnight dump with a bluebird opening.

I finally got into Meteo today... it shows a good front starting the 7th (which is what Powderchaser told me) and a biggie
coming in around the 14th.

It will be interesting to see if they pan out.....I hope so because my son and I are heading down on the 6 th for some Wasatch pow!
post #4 of 8

Those long term forecasts are a crapshoot. 48-72 hr is generally pretty accurate as far as snowfall totals these days and anyone else that claims longer is lying. I've seen NOAA drastically change snowfall predictions in the 12 hr time frame leading up to a storm.  These guys make a best guess even with all the technology out there. 5-10 day they can tell you at best if there is a good chance of snow or no chance of snow. The site got lucky if they predicted 10+ days out.  Opensnow.com is your best bet.  You can get a premium membership and actually ask the forecasters to look at your ski area and give you solid info.

post #5 of 8
I don't think any forecast is too reliable out past 8 days or so. I've been looking at computer models and have seen the storm on 7th(pretty reliable at this point) and the storm on the 14th or so. The mid March storm is definitely subject to change. The GFS computer model runs every 6 hours. Out past 7 days, you are basically looking for consistency and trends. You can generally be confident that details will change.
post #6 of 8
Thread Starter 
The trends thing makes sense. But At the very least they help point me to a general date range of probable snow.
I know from living in the mtns that the forecast can be wrong 24hrs out.
post #7 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbaird View Post

The trends thing makes sense. But At the very least they help point me to a general date range of probable snow.
I know from living in the mtns that the forecast can be wrong 24hrs out.

Actually forecast 24 hrs out are much more accurate that those that are long dated.  Beyond 5-7 days out, there isn't much information in the forecast. 

 

Joel Gratz has this 

 

http://www.slideshare.net/findOpensnow/when-to-call-in-sick-for-a-powder-day-14718414

 

Mike

post #8 of 8
Thread Starter 
Damn you guys ! You jinxed me.... Spent last few days at Alta and the storms kept moving around us...even the 12hr forecasts were off. They just kept leading us on..... 7' tonight....4"tomorrow..... blah..blah..blah... At least the worst conditions there are better than most good conditions everywhere else,
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