or Connect
EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › On the Snow (Skiing Forums) › General Skiing Discussion › The future of eastern or lower altitude western skiing
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

The future of eastern or lower altitude western skiing - Page 5

post #121 of 132
Quote:
Agreed, although I don't think 15 years is a meaningful period in a geologic to atmospheric carbon cycle. That is potentially as political as pointing out the positive feedback rates of CO2 assumed in climate models. 

Actually most analyses I've read have stated that if the "pause" reaches 20 years the climate projection models will all be below their confidence intervals and need to go back to the drawing board.  See the Hans Von Storch quote in my first post.  The skeptics were pointing out the pause a few years back and the rebuttal then was, "It's natural climate variability, it has to last 20 years before the models are invalidated." 

post #122 of 132

The natural factors are not known and the clouds trap more heat than the greenhouse gases.  Doesn't that suggest the climate should be studied, and changes not made unless they have a direct effect?

post #123 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by like2ski123 View Post
 

The natural factors are not known and the clouds trap more heat than the greenhouse gases.  Doesn't that suggest the climate should be studied, and changes not made unless they have a direct effect?

 

Most if not all of scientist who are considered "deniers" have been suggesting this (natural factors). Some for well over two decades, the problem is partially funding and how the scientist method works. Usually a small group of researchers comes up with an idea and it takes a while for others to validate the findings. For example oceans plays a significant role in the climate. J. Curry et al correlated this current temp pause to other natural cycles measured in the past. Latest paper by Trenberth who is biased toward AWG speculates the pause is now mainly due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  Another factor coming into play is time scales, the sun spot activity will be the lowest observed in the past 100 years. To all scientist this will be an exciting time since it will be new physical processes to study and how that drives the climate. 

 

In addition, the problem for the past 20 yrs is that research has been hunting for man made cause, essentially that's the charter for the IPCC. Unfortunately, it takes a while a hypothesis to run its course. 

post #124 of 132

Bjorn Lomborg (sp?) recently calculated that for every dollar we spend in attempting to address global warming, we get less than a nickel's return.

 

Clearly, if maximum bang for the buck was the goal, not re-aligning civilization to atone for some imaginary sins, we would spend every penny we currently waste on purchasing emissions equipment for the nearly uncontrolled coal fired power plants China puts on line every month or so.

 

And we kind of are trying to do this, but oh boy, it is a political football.

post #125 of 132

Climatology is a good endeavor but shouldn't be the only rationale from cutting the fossil fuels cord.  There are plenty of reasons to move to alternative energy sources starting with the need to stop funding the mostly evil, homophobic, sexist, theocratic,etc, etc, etc regimes in the Middle East where we get our cheapest oil.  Starting by only relying on the much much more expensive domestic sources of crude  will help steer us in the right direction and also reduce our overall use due to cost factors for petroleum. 

 

If that also helps reduce our impact on climate wonderful.  If it doesn't change a thing except the Big Oil profit margin and reduce the power of Middle East fanatics that is worthwhile all on its own merits.

post #126 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by crgildart View Post
 

Climatology is a good endeavor but shouldn't be the only rationale from cutting the fossil fuels cord.  There are plenty of reasons to move to alternative energy sources starting with the need to stop funding the mostly evil, homophobic, sexist, theocratic,etc, etc, etc regimes in the Middle East where we get our cheapest oil.  Starting by only relying on the much much more expensive domestic sources of crude  will help steer us in the right direction and also reduce our overall use due to cost factors for petroleum. 

 

If that also helps reduce our impact on climate wonderful.  If it doesn't change a thing except the Big Oil profit margin and reduce the power of Middle East fanatics that is worthwhile all on its own merits.

 

Some of that money spent on this AWG can have been spent on adaption or ways to cut our dependence on fossil fuels. 

 

Another factor to consider is that we and the globe has limited cheap high efficient energy sources. Viable alternates are still hydro electric, nuclear and bio fuels.  One item to keep in mind, as result of the 10% ethanol mandate, some have speculated food prices have increased, alteration of existing ecosystems or deforestation.

post #127 of 132
Can sometime remind me what this AWG is? The Internet is giving me translations that clearly are not related to this discussion. American wire gauge, associated wholesale grocers...
post #128 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by sibhusky View Post

Can sometime remind me what this AWG is? The Internet is giving me translations that clearly are not related to this discussion. American wire gauge, associated wholesale grocers...

 

It's AGW.

post #129 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by sibhusky View Post

Can sometime remind me what this AWG is? The Internet is giving me translations that clearly are not related to this discussion. American wire gauge, associated wholesale grocers...

 

my mistake..... it's AGW or Anthropogenic Global Warming. All climatologist believes warming has occured, the contentious issue is whether its man caused or how much it is man caused. 

post #130 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by sibhusky View Post

Can sometime remind me what this AWG is? The Internet is giving me translations that clearly are not related to this discussion. American wire gauge, associated wholesale grocers...

Instead of AWG, I think they meant to use AGW - Anthropogenic (or human-caused) Global Warming

post #131 of 132
anthropogenic global warming.. How have I never seen this word until this thread?

It's been an interesting discussion.
post #132 of 132

Silly me.  I've also heard the term AGW to translate to Accelerated Global Warming.

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Skiing Discussion
EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › On the Snow (Skiing Forums) › General Skiing Discussion › The future of eastern or lower altitude western skiing