Originally Posted by davluri
I don't believe that anyone puts much weight on concepts of luck, probability, and odds. I was interested in the concept of an "outlying event" though. many people don't have Dec yet.
What 'lack' is most disturbing?
I think this has been mentioned before on another thread last year. Bottom line, it's pretty tough to comment on something not experienced. If you don't tour (that's third person 'you', dave) and haven't been planning the route, making the choices, etc... most comments about avalanche issues are just kind of blind speculation formulated by heresy. Typically, when there's a fatality, those who don't participate in the activity use the event for validation of their choice rather than actually learn something. In this thread, there's a good deal of 'predicting' going on that has no connection to any hard facts or statistics. Those statistics that are being speculated on are in fact very available to anyone with an internet connection. These days it seems there's a rush to anything over boot top with less relative regard to risk. Movies? Avalungs? Easy to use digital beacons? I don't know, but it seems to have become more aggressive.
IMHO, what has changed is the proverbial 'race for the goods'. I feel that I can safely say that I'm alive today because we felt no need to ski steep/deep BC terrain during or within 48hours of a storm cycle. We were in a maritime snowpack at relatively low elevation, so what I just said certainly doesn't hold true at all for a continental snowpack. Anyhow, cycle comes, cycle goes, we dig, we evaluate, and the vast majority of days things were very stable. The exception being in a warming trend on S, SW facing aspects where we were when temps would rise to near or just above freezing. We'd ski something in the morning that was solid knowing full well that we wanted nothing to do with it in the afternoon. Of course all this has backed by a small network of friends skiing, calling each other, and sharing careful observations of local conditions on pretty much a daily basis during the season so that everyone was well aware of the daily snowpack conditions. I don't have that luxury currently so I will have to dial back my choices and be much more conservative than in the past until I re-establish a good network with a knowledgeable local crowd that shares the same risk tolerances/thresholds... anyhow, just my two pesos.
Bottom line is there is a lot of wonderful touring that is very very safe. Far safer than blue groomers on a busy weekend.