or Connect
EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › On the Snow (Skiing Forums) › General Skiing Discussion ›  2012-2013 Colorado/New Mexico Weather Discussion
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

2012-2013 Colorado/New Mexico Weather Discussion - Page 2  

post #31 of 262

10 day forecast for pretty much everywhere in the SW is making me sad panda.  Seriously considering a move up to Portland.

post #32 of 262

I'm trying to stay positive, but I keep remembering last year.  And last year had a wetter fall than this...
 

post #33 of 262

We had a wet fall last year then patterns shifted north and it died out in Dec-Jan when we needed it the most.  Hopefully it will be the reverse this year. 

 

This is what I was looking at exactly one year ago at WC.  No skiing this year for Turkey Day.

 

1000

post #34 of 262

CO needs a break after last year. Hopefully this really is temporary.

post #35 of 262
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post

We had a wet fall last year then patterns shifted north and it died out in Dec-Jan when we needed it the most.  Hopefully it will be the reverse this year. 

 

March was the worst. With storms coming from the north and west, as well as upslope from the Plains, that's the best time for snow in northern CO. It was bone dry. I think it snowed 1 or 2 days, and the temperature stayed around 50 all month.

post #36 of 262
Quote:
Originally Posted by COBillsFan View Post

March was the worst. With storms coming from the north and west, as well as upslope from the Plains, that's the best time for snow in northern CO. It was bone dry. I think it snowed 1 or 2 days, and the temperature stayed around 50 all month.


Okay, enough, we can't taint this thread with negativity.  I'm sorry I started it, forgive me Ullr.

post #37 of 262

Joel says there's some snow early next week for the Northern mountains...

 

http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/colorado

 

Mike

post #38 of 262
Thread Starter 

OK, there's talk of a dusting tonight, and here's what we may be looking at for Sunday-Tuesday (Thanks to Joel from Open Snow). Maybe 4-8". Hopefully this thing charges up as it comes in. Looks like it's missing NM though...

 

Storm Precipitation

post #39 of 262

I live west of Boulder, CO. A professional meteorologist lives near me and sends out forecasts. Here's what he said yesterday:

We are in a very stable upper air pattern that will produce generally dry and warm weather forever - well not forever but out to 14 days in the computer forecast

There is a chance of light snow and cooler temperatures briefly at the end of this weekend but nothing dramatic - and then back to dry weather

post #40 of 262

Patience,

Low snow levels mean thin rotten layers at the base of the winter snowpack.

 

AKA more stable avalanch slabs.

 

Every winter I've ever seen has been cold and snowy.

post #41 of 262
Quote:
Originally Posted by COBillsFan View Post

OK, there's talk of a dusting tonight, and here's what we may be looking at for Sunday-Tuesday (Thanks to Joel from Open Snow). Maybe 4-8". Hopefully this thing charges up as it comes in. Looks like it's missing NM though...

2012-11-21-Storm-Precip.png

Nope - weak and to the north, just like everything else.
post #42 of 262
Quote:
Originally Posted by COBillsFan View Post

March was the worst. With storms coming from the north and west, as well as upslope from the Plains, that's the best time for snow in northern CO. It was bone dry. I think it snowed 1 or 2 days, and the temperature stayed around 50 all month.


Oh man, I don't even like thinking about March 2012. I will be telling my kids horror stories about March 2012. I told myself all season that things would turn around in March. It ALWAYS snows in March.

 

Only it didn't It was 55* every day and ate what meager snow there was. My area closed April 1 with NOTHING left to ski.

post #43 of 262

doom and gloom being preached on opensnow forums for CO this year :(

post #44 of 262

Hard to blame them at this point.

post #45 of 262

http://www.cwi.colostate.edu/publications/wb/9.pdf  from the opensnow thread, really good read.  The last section is very ominous and right in line with what is happening now unfortunately. 

post #46 of 262
Thread Starter 

Good post Core2. 

 

Droughts happen. It sucks, but they’re a natural occurrence. We’ve had some awesome years recently so we’ve been spoiled, but I guess these things happen sometime.

 

I’m praying it’s going to resemble 07/08. Drought conditions until mid December, and then record breaking snow through February. 

post #47 of 262
Quote:
Originally Posted by COBillsFan View Post

Good post Core2. 

 

Droughts happen. It sucks, but they’re a natural occurrence. We’ve had some awesome years recently so we’ve been spoiled, but I guess these things happen sometime.

 

I’m praying it’s going to resemble 07/08. Drought conditions until mid December, and then record breaking snow through February. 

 

I think the important thing to keep remembering is that past weather does not do a terribly great job of predicting the future.  The lack of an El Nino or La Nina effect this year makes it a crap shoot, which does mean it csan turn around.

 

But conditions are really, really bad right now. This is the first year I can remember that I didn't ski around Thanksgiving. My season this year has been one day at Wolf Creek with very marginal coverage. They have now had NO SNOW for 3 weeks after getting the single storm that provided all of their moisture to date.  They have closed Raven lift now.

 

Looking at on the snow's snowfall history, this is the longest period going back to when they started keeping track in 2007 of Wolf Creek not getting some snowfall.

 

Its hard to believe we are a few weeks away from Christmas. It feels like early October outside.

post #48 of 262
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by anachronism View Post

I think the important thing to keep remembering is that past weather does not do a terribly great job of predicting the future.  The lack of an El Nino or La Nina effect this year makes it a crap shoot, which does mean it csan turn around.

 

But conditions are really, really bad right now. This is the first year I can remember that I didn't ski around Thanksgiving. My season this year has been one day at Wolf Creek with very marginal coverage. They have now had NO SNOW for 3 weeks after getting the single storm that provided all of their moisture to date.  They have closed Raven lift now.

 

Looking at on the snow's snowfall history, this is the longest period going back to when they started keeping track in 2007 of Wolf Creek not getting some snowfall.

 

Its hard to believe we are a few weeks away from Christmas. It feels like early October outside.

 

Here’s the kicker. Nobody in Colorado has snow right now.

 

Let’s face it, CO is a big state. We can catch storms from multiple directions. Even in the bad years, some of the resorts had great seasons. Last year, Eldora did great. Steamboat had some big dumps. So did Powderhorn.  Wolf Creek has twice as much snow as Alta at Christmas.   

 

Right now, the entire state is bone dry. Simply put, there’s no storms coming in. Same deal with New Mexico. Utah got their big dump 2 weeks ago, but it’s been pretty dry ever since.  The Southern Rockies are not looking good. Let’s hope things change….

post #49 of 262

Neutral La Nina/El Nino years tend to see more weather extremes.  What this really means I have no idea since we seem to be in weather extremes all the time the last few years.  I hope it will turn around but hard to be optimistic after last year.  Enjoy some hiking is all I can say.

post #50 of 262
post #51 of 262

New Mexico might be looking at some significant snowfall this weekend...cross your fingers!

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Taos+Ski+Valley&state=NM&site=ABQ&lat=36.6&lon=-105.45

 

http://www.snowforecast.com/resorts/4668-taos-ski-valley


Saturday through Monday --SNOW FOR EVERYONE!-- -> Snowfall could become significant Saturday night through Monday, as stronger low pressure dives in from out of the northwest. If this follows expectations, we could see more moderate snowfall across Colorado then into northern New Mexico, which could add up nicely. Which areas is still a question. Moisture will likely be a bit limited. The system may close off and drop south further than expected also, which would deliver heavier snow to northern New Mexico (!!). We are thinking something in between as the system plays out over the course of 2 days, which would possibly deliver light to moderate snowfall.

post #52 of 262

I'm not holding my breath for this weekend (for Colorado):

 

LONG RANGE MODELS TOOK A BIT OF A TURN THIS EVENING AS
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN RUNS NOW SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM AND NOT AS
AMPLIFIED AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN LESSER CHANCES FOR SNOW. HOWEVER WITH POOR CONSISTENCY
IN THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT FORECASTS INTACT
AND WILL NOT LOWER CHANCES OF SNOW FOR NOW.
post #53 of 262

Taos is getting the goods and this one is just getting started!

 

http://www.skitaos.org/

post #54 of 262
Quote:
Originally Posted by HippieFlippinNM View Post

Taos is getting the goods and this one is just getting started!

 

http://www.skitaos.org/

 

Unfreaking believable. This means that everywhere in Colorado and the New Mexico areas got snow except for Wolf Creek. Purg even picked up a little.

post #55 of 262

It snowed off and on at the Wolf (2-4").  It sounds as if the end of this week is a better possibility for them.  I have seen Wolf go from barely open to 100% open in one storm so at least one seems to be on the horizon.  Snowmass, Monarch, and Taos look to be the big winners in this round!

post #56 of 262

Ullr akbar.  Ullr is great!  (never hurts to suck up to the big guy...)

 

We had finally had some light flurries this morning at our home outside of Durango.  Yes, I am an eternal optimist.  Maybe later this week!  icon14.gif
 

post #57 of 262
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatChance View Post

Ullr akbar.  Ullr is great!  (never hurts to suck up to the big guy...)

 

We had finally had some light flurries this morning at our home outside of Durango.  Yes, I am an eternal optimist.  Maybe later this week!  icon14.gif
 

 

Wolf got 5 inches, and FINALLY appears to be in the sights for the storm coming Friday- up to 15" forecasted.

 

Will be skiing this weekend.

 

http://opensnow.com/location/wolfcreekcolorado

post #58 of 262

icon14.gif  Clean living and pure thoughts might finally be paying off!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

roflmao.gif
 

post #59 of 262

Looking really good for the San Juans.  Davey is going to have to fire up the big snow eater for the first time this season and the tower pads are going to need to be adjusted!  Anachronism, it looks like you we will get your wish.smile.gif

post #60 of 262

Snow Forecast seems pretty optimistic about Northern New Mexico...predicting as much as 21" by the end of the weekend.

 

http://www.snowforecast.com/resorts/4668-taos-ski-valley

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Skiing Discussion
This thread is locked  
EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › On the Snow (Skiing Forums) › General Skiing Discussion ›  2012-2013 Colorado/New Mexico Weather Discussion