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PNW 2012/13 weather, conditions, stoke

post #1 of 561
Thread Starter 

Thought it would be nice to have one thread to discuss weather, early season openings, and ongoing conditions throughout the PNW (WA, OR, BC).   Inland NW is welcome to join in.

 

I was noticing the forecast for Stevens Pass:

 

7-DAY FORECAST

  • Today Partly sunny, with a high near 40. West wind around 8 mph.
  • Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Calm wind becoming south southeast 5 to 8 mph in the evening.
  • Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
  • Thursday Night Rain. Low around 35. South southeast wind 7 to 16 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
  • Friday Showers. High near 41. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
  • Friday Night Snow showers. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Saturday Snow showers. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  • Saturday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 24.
  • Sunday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.
  • Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.
  • Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.
  • Monday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24.
  • Tuesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33.

 

Now that the wet weather has returned with a vengeance, (along with some serious wind the past few days), it looks like things will cool down starting Friday night and begin to accumulate snow.  There was some new snow yesterday (Tuesday) but it will rain on Thursday & Friday before turning to snow Friday night.  And then continue to snow.  

 

I was thinking it would be odd if there was enough snow accumulation to open the same weekend at the Ski Fever show in Seattle Oct 26-28.  Unlikely, but hey, I can dream a little.

 

Any bets on when Baker opens?  They're usually first, with Crystal close behind and Stevens about a week later.

post #2 of 561
Quote:
Originally Posted by DesiredUsername View Post

I was thinking it would be odd if there was enough snow accumulation to open the same weekend at the Ski Fever show in Seattle Oct 26-28.  Unlikely, but hey, I can dream a little.

 

 

Now that's some serious wishful thinking.  What the hell, aim high, right? wink.gif

post #3 of 561

It's supposed to snow in town (Spokane) on Sunday if the forecast holds.

 

In other news... Take this how you will, but it could be looking pretty good for the PNW this winter:

 

http://www.cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_f2f7d7e9-a317-5a9b-8420-1960daf41141.html

 

 

Quote:
Based on what's happened recently in the Pacific and the sudden buildup of record amounts of sea ice in the Antarctic waters, we believe that a new 'La Nina' may produce colder temperatures and above normal amounts of snow across the Inland Northwest, including North Idaho, this fast-approaching winter of 2012-13.
post #4 of 561

They're getting buried at Baker!  Just look at this picture from yesterday!

 

 

Well, maybe not "buried"...yet.

post #5 of 561
Quote:
Originally Posted by spknmike View Post

It's supposed to snow in town (Spokane) on Sunday if the forecast holds.

 

In other news... Take this how you will, but it could be looking pretty good for the PNW this winter:

 

http://www.cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_f2f7d7e9-a317-5a9b-8420-1960daf41141.html

 

 


Wow this guy is calling for a La Nina event now.  I heard the pattern was trending neutral but haven't heard La Nina spoken yet.  I hope he is wrong.

post #6 of 561

Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post


Wow this guy is calling for a La Nina event now.  I heard the pattern was trending neutral but haven't heard La Nina spoken yet.  I hope he is wrong.

 

Hey now, keep that attitude out of this thread. Bring on La Nina!

 

wink.gif

post #7 of 561

Sorry I don't want to kill anyone's stoke.  La Nina aside, this was the Snowforecast.com outlook for the next couple weeks posted on 10/15.  Sounds pretty good.

 

Since late September we have been forecasting a big weather change across the west, to large scale low pressure and some snow for the resorts. This change was to begin (the change from upper-level high pressure ridging to an upper-level low pressure trough) between the 16th and 20th. In the last week, we changed that expected date to around the 20th, which is this weekend.

Well, this is still on track, and latest computer models continue to show this change over to what we all want to see out west (please see attached charts); A nice start for the Pacific Northwest (including Lookout Pass ID) at first, Tahoe (including our friends at Sugar Bowl and Squaw)/ Mammoth Mountain, then the rest of the western US, mainly targeting the north. We expect several shortwaves and larger storms to move through, and behind these colder storm systems we expect plenty of cold air availability out of the Gulf of Alaska to drop snow levels. The I-80/ Salt Lake/ Wasatch Resorts like Alta, through I-70 Colorado (including Aspen through Winter Park), and definitely Sun Valley ID, Jackson Hole WY, and Big Sky MT, plus our friends at Brundage Mountain Resort in McCall, ID. Areas like Mountain High and Big Bear in SoCal, plus the Arizona Snowbowl and Brian Head UT will have to wait a couple/ few days longer for the low pressure trough to carve out across the west, toward mid to late next week, deep enough to bring the 564dm 500mb precip/ no precip line south far enough to produce precipitation across those areas. I am attaching some charts to this discussion. Please have a look. We will update on our forecast pages, and in this forum as we go. If you like this please tell a friend using our social media, blog, IM, email and bookmark links at the top and bottom of this page.

 

http://www.snowforecast.com/index.php?option=com_kunena&func=view&catid=2&id=43&Itemid=2180

post #8 of 561

 

Stevens this morning.

 

And Crystal:

 


Edited by Christy319 - 10/22/12 at 12:12pm
post #9 of 561

   Meadows is reporting 10 inches last 24 hours, and a 17 inch base. The ski show in Portland is a week later than Seattle, and barring incredible amounts of snow, there is no way they open by then. But we can all hope.

post #10 of 561
Quote:
Originally Posted by Posaune View Post

They're getting buried at Baker!  Just look at this picture from yesterday!

 

 

Well, maybe not "buried"...yet.


Yes, but that was yesterday...

 

post #11 of 561
Quote:
Originally Posted by chip inderhol View Post

   Meadows is reporting 10 inches last 24 hours, and a 17 inch base. The ski show in Portland is a week later than Seattle, and barring incredible amounts of snow, there is no way they open by then. But we can all hope.


Meadows usually opens with about a 30 inch base. T-line is looking good for the weekend.

post #12 of 561

I drove to Mt. Vernon and back to Bellingham today and there is lots of snow on the ridges and foothills above the Skagit Valley, and more falling as I watched.

post #13 of 561
Thread Starter 

Speaking of the Ski Fever show, anyone want to meet up there?  I'm thinking of going Saturday.  

post #14 of 561

Meadows is covered in snow. So stoked!

post #15 of 561
White Pass Ski area is reporting 9" at the base, 18"at the summit on 10/23/12.
post #16 of 561

6" at the base last night for Stevens they claim, looks like maybe a little less than that.  But still looks very good. biggrin.gif

 

 

post #17 of 561
post #18 of 561

Wow, very interesting. My favorite part:

 

 

Quote:

I could show you a similar figure for floods or snowstorms, but that would only scare you.  And bring chills to the spine of Seattle mayors past and present.  Importantly, it is ok to get that season lift ticket pass for Stevens, Snoqualmie, or Crystal.

post #19 of 561

Baker has 12" of new snow mid mountain... need to get my gear organized for the first pre-season hike!

post #20 of 561
Thread Starter 

Alas, starting Sunday it looks like things are warming up and rain is in the forecast for next week.   frown.gif  

 

Here's the NOAA forecast for Stevens, Baker is similar.  Hope it doesn't all wash away.

 

 

Today Snow showers. High near 31. Southeast wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

  • Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Thursday A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Thursday Night A 30 percent chance of snow before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming south southeast in the evening. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Friday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Southeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • Friday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
  • Saturday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30.
  • Sunday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35.
  • Sunday Night Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
  • Monday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34.
  • Monday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30.
  • Tuesday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34.
post #21 of 561

I think we're all getting the horse a little ahead of the cart if we think we'll being skiing before/by Halloween. 

post #22 of 561
Quote:
Originally Posted by markojp View Post

I think we're all getting the horse a little ahead of the cart if we think we'll being skiing before/by Halloween. 

 

Yeah people are excited.  I just keep remembering that most resorts will have something open by this time next month.  C'mon Thanksgiving!

post #23 of 561
Quote:
Originally Posted by DesiredUsername View Post

Alas, starting Sunday it looks like things are warming up and rain is in the forecast for next week.   frown.gif  

 

Here's the NOAA forecast for Stevens, Baker is similar.  Hope it doesn't all wash away.

 

 

Today Snow showers. High near 31. Southeast wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

  • Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Thursday A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Thursday Night A 30 percent chance of snow before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming south southeast in the evening. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Friday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Southeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • Friday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
  • Saturday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30.
  • Sunday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35.
  • Sunday Night Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
  • Monday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34.
  • Monday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30.
  • Tuesday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34.

Well this was depressing to read. I didn't think the snow would keep up, but still.

post #24 of 561
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiingCoug View Post

Well this was depressing to read. I didn't think the snow would keep up, but still.


This will just help to consolidate the base.

post #25 of 561
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecimmortal View Post


This will just help to consolidate the base.

 

Depends upon how many days it rains and how much volume of precipitation. 

post #26 of 561

Fingers in ears; "LA LA LA LA LA".  You are talking dirty and don't want to hear it.  hissyfit.gif

 

It is pretty to look at though.  Yesterday out walking the dog, the Olympics got some termination dust.  It is a pretty crappy picture but it is new snow.

 

post #27 of 561
Quote:

Importantly, it is ok to get that season lift ticket pass for Stevens, Snoqualmie, or Crystal.

 

Steven's Pass    $799

Snoqualmie        $679

Crystal               $1,499

 

Where to buy, where to buy...

post #28 of 561

The Crystal price is shocking (it's actually $1599 for adult). Though it was $700 less if you bought last spring...

post #29 of 561

Who the heck pays 1499 for a seasons pass? BSmeter.gif

post #30 of 561
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiingCoug View Post

Who the heck pays 1499 for a seasons pass? BSmeter.gif

 

Whistler/blackcomb= $1795

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