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Accuweather 2012/13 Winter Forecast is Out! - Page 4

post #91 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trekchick View Post

Bump for the short range forecast for the Northern Rockies.  Volantaddict, are you ready? biggrin.gif

http://powderchasers.com/powder-alert/first-snow-to-sweep-accross-the-northern-rockies#.UGr9nR5mdhY.facebook

 

 

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinFromSA View Post

Forecast for tonight here in Central Montana is a low of 19 and a 70% chance of snow. Woot woot!

 

"Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for elevations above 4000 feet..."

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=59457

^^^ That's what powderchasers are saying too!

post #92 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdleuck View Post

And FYI the Tahoe Weather Discussion site (http://tahoeweatherdiscussion.com/) was updated yesterday with lots of the latest forecast info.

 

Not that optimistic though for Tahoe area:

 

"So now we will wait and see what Winter brings. For now I’m sticking with my forecast of 75%-85% of average snowfall with an early start to the cold and snow and then a more even spread out Winter.  I don’t  think we will see too many of those 100″ weeks like in 2010-11, and hopefully no 6 week droughts like last January. Stay tuned on the forecast for a possible dusting next week and
> possibly an accumulation the week after….BA"

 

mad.gif
 

post #93 of 120

Tahoe Weather Discussion is looking for analog seasons going back as far as 1950.  Jim Roemer also likes this method.  The trouble is not enough data.  There is actually no analog season to the current situation matching all 4 criteria he's examining.  So he looks at years with 3 out of the 4 criteria and no surprise those 8 seasons are all over the map, with a couple of very extreme high and low snow seasons.  So it's hard for me to believe the analog method can be predictive as yet with such limited and contradictory data. 

post #94 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

Tahoe Weather Discussion is looking for analog seasons going back as far as 1950.  Jim Roemer also likes this method.  The trouble is not enough data.  There is actually no analog season to the current situation matching all 4 criteria he's examining.  So he looks at years with 3 out of the 4 criteria and no surprise those 8 seasons are all over the map, with a couple of very extreme high and low snow seasons.  So it's hard for me to believe the analog method can be predictive as yet with such limited and contradictory data. 


Tony,

 

I am so hopping BA is wrong on a low side ;-)))))

 

Cheers!

 

cfr

post #95 of 120

Well, here's hoping for a good sign (for New England, anyway):

 

http://www.boston.com/travel/explorene/specials/ski/blog/

 

10/01/2012 and there was briefly an inch of snow at the top of Mt. Washington!  Yes, I know, but let me enjoy this and hope for a better season than last year!

post #96 of 120

The latest update from the Climate Prediction Center (which is the only long term forecast worth the electrons it's printed with):

 

"During September 2012, the trend towards El Niño slowed in several key oceanic and atmospheric indicators...Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Nino, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge..."

 

So, it's a crap shoot past Saturday night.

post #97 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by iWill View Post

The latest update from the Climate Prediction Center (which is the only long term forecast worth the electrons it's printed with):

 

"During September 2012, the trend towards El Niño slowed in several key oceanic and atmospheric indicators...Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Nino, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge..."

 

So, it's a crap shoot past Saturday night.

That is signature worthy!

post #98 of 120

And NOOA for Winter 2012-2013 is out today..

 

Warmer here:frown.gif

 

Drier there..frown.gif

 

Normal on the Right Coast

snowfalling.gif

yahoo.gif

post #99 of 120

Short term forecast for Tahoe indicates the possibility of a storm system dropping through and bringing some snow to the highest elevations.  So far, precipitation for October is only about 16% of normal, but this single storm, could bring that up to 100% with just 1.5" of precip.  

 

Way too early to make any judgments about the season, and the best description of the ENSO is "La Nada".  So I agree with "it's a crap shoot past Saturday night".

post #100 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by crgildart View Post

And NOOA for Winter 2012-2013 is out today..

 

Warmer here:frown.gif

 

Drier there..frown.gif

 

Normal on the Right Coast

snowfalling.gif

yahoo.gif

Looking real promising for the Wasatch...after predicting above average last year and ending up with a dismal snow year, I am not putting much into this prediction.  After all, these long-term predictions change on a daily basis right now. The Pac NW is supposed to be dry, yet is getting all the moisture so far. My only prediction is that I believe it will be better than last year, about average or so. 

post #101 of 120
post #102 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by wasatchskier View Post

Looking real promising for the Wasatch...after predicting above average last year and ending up with a dismal snow year, I am not putting much into this prediction.  After all, these long-term predictions change on a daily basis right now. The Pac NW is supposed to be dry, yet is getting all the moisture so far. My only prediction is that I believe it will be better than last year, about average or so. 

 

Actually, this forecast, which is updated monthly has shown little change over the past three months, and has been pretty much accurate over the course of this summer.

 

As far as the PNW being forecast to be "dry", the forecast is actually "probability of normal or drier than normal", which it has been. Face, the chance of the PNW being "dry" in the fall is easy to forecast - zero.

post #103 of 120

 

Not a bad forecast from Heavenly...perhaps Lake Tahoe will get lucky next week.

post #104 of 120

Meanwhile, in the "normal" Mid Atlantic it's going to be 76 degrees today.  We're going camping this Saturday night and probably won't need anything beyond a sweatshirt and jeans on Sunday morning packing up.  Forecast low temp 46 degrees, perfect sleeping bag weather.  I've slept in colder ski cottages.

post #105 of 120

NOAA just released this....

 

In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:

  • Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
  • Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
  • Drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
  • Drier-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
  • Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.
post #106 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rossi Smash View Post

NOAA just released this....

 

In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:

  • Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
  • Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
  • Drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
  • Drier-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
  • Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.

So what you're saying is, Tahoe is going to get drier snow, not the Sierra Cement that we've grown accustomed to. biggrin.gif

post #107 of 120

Well, I can tell you that there has been a lot of rain overnight in the PNW, while warm today it's cooling tonight; snow is expected in the mountains pretty much for the next week. 

 

Not great for the harvesting and yardwork I still have to do at home (apples, hardy kiwi, walnuts and more asian pears than we know what to do with) but I'm not complaining, because I'll be snacking on home-grown dried fruit all ski season.  

 

But I digress.....after a very long dry period, the PNW is back to being wet.  Balance is restored (for the time being).

post #108 of 120

Not to burst anyone's bubble... but....

 

 

 

 

 

I personally think any prediction made this early is a silly one, anything can happen.  Besides, everyone knows the real way to forecast a good snow season is to pray to the winter weather gods biggrin.gif

post #109 of 120

I always get a kick out of people using the Farmer's Almanac. Instead of relying on computer models and past data, you can tell the upcoming weather by sniffing a turtle's bottom.

 

Whatever floats your boat, I say.

post #110 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by iWill View Post

I always get a kick out of people using the Farmer's Almanac. Instead of relying on computer models and past data, you can tell the upcoming weather by sniffing a turtle's bottom.

 

Whatever floats your boat, I say.

 

Probably because it's just about as accurate - which isn't to say it's accurate.

post #111 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayT View Post

 

Probably because it's just about as accurate - which isn't to say it's accurate.

At least someone got it.

post #112 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by east or bust View Post

Not to burst anyone's bubble... but....

 

 

 

 

 

I personally think any prediction made this early is a silly one, anything can happen.  Besides, everyone knows the real way to forecast a good snow season is to pray to the winter weather gods biggrin.gif

Shot skis and ULLR

post #113 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by iWill View Post

 

Actually, this forecast, which is updated monthly has shown little change over the past three months, and has been pretty much accurate over the course of this summer.

 

As far as the PNW being forecast to be "dry", the forecast is actually "probability of normal or drier than normal", which it has been. Face, the chance of the PNW being "dry" in the fall is easy to forecast - zero.

I have been paying attention to the Wasatch for the most part, but the last NOAA prediction (Sept I assume) had the Wasatch in the middle of the average area for the 3 month period.  So a month has passed on that prediction, but now the other 2 months become dry all the sudden?

post #114 of 120

I'll take what mother natures gives. I did all my bitching last year, it's out of my system.

post #115 of 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by iWill View Post

Face, the chance of the PNW being "dry" in the fall is easy to forecast - zero.

 

Yep... there is nothing dry outside of my window... and it keeps going:

post #116 of 120

Best ski forecast for my region hands down..

 

 

Just check it before planning a trip

 

Quote:

Beech Mountain Resort Base Cam

The Beech Mountain Resort Cam is another one of our Beech Mountain Cams that displays the current conditions, skier traffic, and happenings that are going on at Beech Mountain Resort. One of several Beech Mountain Cams, this Mountain Web Cam is one of our Western NC Webcams that points right at the slopes. This and the other Ski Cams on our site are great to check before you make the trek out to the slopes or if you just wish to see some white, powdery snow.

post #117 of 120

PNW getting it today.  http://www.timberlinelodge.com/webcams/  Timberline had Palmer open a few days ago and I assume they will reopen with fresh once the weather lets up.  Lucky people up there.

post #118 of 120

I like what I'm seeing here!

 

post #119 of 120
Snowing here. I'll bet someone ends up skiing the pass or targhee this weekend. I hope they're wearing their helmets. Keep it coming, water has to go somewhere and I hope it's here.
post #120 of 120

Bump for some mid-December stoke. It would appear that the Big Sky area did not get the memo about the forecast:

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