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2012-2013 Season Outlook

post #1 of 12
Thread Starter 

It's almost August and time for the first long-range outlooks to be posted.  (don't ask why, it just is) th_dunno-1[1].gif

 

Looks to be something of a reversal from last year as we start to move into a mile El Nino ENSO pattern.  For my neck of the woods that means once again the Sierra falls between the higher probability of precipitation and temperature departures from normal.   The big news is the PNW appears to be looking at a dryer, warmer year, while the southwest may see improved odds of better precipitation.  The Midwest, Mid Atlantic and New England skiers will not like the temperature forecasts, but things look especially bad for the Great Lakes region. 

 

The critical November, December, January predictions are what I think count here...Source: Climate Prediction Center

 

PRECIPITATION NOV, DEC, JAN

 

1000

 

 

TEMPERATURE NOV, DEC, JAN

 

1000

post #2 of 12

I didn't see any link to past data so I couldn't check to see how their past predictions have fared.

post #3 of 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmaie View Post

I didn't see any link to past data so I couldn't check to see how their past predictions have fared.


That would be very interesting to know. 

post #4 of 12
The Wasatch looks normal. After last season, normal would seem epic.
post #5 of 12
Thread Starter 

Season outlook threads happen pretty much every year on Epicski. It can be amusing to look back.  Last year, SquawBrat posted a prediction by ExactaWeather that is in retrospect laughable.

 

 

Quote:

Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.

 

We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.

 

With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niña, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US.

 

 

The Farmers Almanac forecast as posted by Trekchick did not fair well:

 

Quote:

Farmers Almanac says that the Northeast and Great Lakes Region will have a great ski season, while Colorado will be lower than average, and the Northwest will be average.

 

 

 

Quote:
This year’s forecast indicates that northern New England, the Great Lakes region, and most parts of Canada are in for a very snowy winter.

 

Accuweather?  You have to be kidding  nonono2.gif

 

Quote:

Winter 2011-2012: Brutal for the Midwest, Great Lakes

 

Hands down, AccuWeather.com's long-range experts agree that the Midwest and Great Lakes region will be dealt the worst of winter this year.

In terms of both snow and cold, this winter is expected to be the worst in Chicago.

AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter."

However, for the worst of winter's cold alone, the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team points to Minneapolis.

The team also highlights Buffalo, N.Y., Indianapolis and Omaha, Neb., as cities that will have to deal with a hefty amount of snow.

 

 

 

And finally we have The 2011-2012 NOAA Winter Outlook  As linked in this thread

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by quant2325 View Post

The winter outlook is great if your ski area is in the northern half of the USA or in most of Canada.  See:http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/noaa-winter-outlook_2011-10-20

 

Time to get those powder skis ready.

 Okay, did everyone get out the powder skis, or were you making base repairs?

post #6 of 12
Thread Starter 

Based on last year's long-range predictions vs outcome, we can pretty well conclude that long-range forecasting is completely bunk.

post #7 of 12

The only accurate weather report is a report modified after the fact

post #8 of 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by voriand View Post

The only accurate weather report is a report modified after the fact

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cirquerider View Post

Based on last year's long-range predictions vs outcome, we can pretty well conclude that long-range forecasting is completely bunk.

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by quant2325 View Post

The winter outlook is great if your ski area is in the northern half of the USA or in most of Canada.  See:http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/noaa-winter-outlook_2011-10-20

 

Time to get those powder skis ready.

 

 

Most of Canada did indeed have a great season last year making the NOAA's prediction less than terrible.   Regardless, long range forecasts for weather using historical data is like driving fast through a rear view mirror.  You do great until the hairpin curve comes.  There are just too many hair pin turns on the long-term weather highway.  Still, making an occasional sacrifice to Ullr can't hurt.

 

What impressed me is the ability of the larger resort operators (e.g., see: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000119312512261023/d339888d10q.htm ) to to survive a bad season with financial stability.  Hopefully, a good year or two will keep the smaller local hills in the money.

 

 

post #9 of 12

Am I the only one that don`t understand anything about these maps? Anyway, any chance to have something similar to 2010/2011?

post #10 of 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by mfa81 View Post

Am I the only one that don`t understand anything about these maps? Anyway, any chance to have something similar to 2010/2011?

Possibly.  In Boise, the prediction is for somewhat colder than average, but could go either way as to precipitation, more than average, less than average or normal.  

 

You liked last year?  Personally, I liked the year before, which last year was supposed to be similar to and wasn't.  Last year certainly cured me of relying on any forecast except the one in front of my goggles.  

post #11 of 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmaie View Post

I didn't see any link to past data so I couldn't check to see how their past predictions have fared.

The usual answer to that question is crappy.  You could do as well flipping a coin.  Occasionally I archive one of those predictions to get a good laugh a year later, as Cirquerider did above.

 

First rule of weather forecasting: anything more than 2 weeks in the future is WORTHLESS. And more than one week, only worth a little bit.

 

As noted on El Nino and La Nina pages, http://173.193.223.192/~bestsnow/El_Nino.htm, those phenomena do have some intermediate-term predictive power for selected areas (not as many as most people think), but only meaningful for the season as a whole, not for specific shorter time periods.  And El Nino/La Nina are not everything, as the past 2 La Nina seasons should have taught us well.

post #12 of 12

I want to save this quote of yours for future reference. 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

 

First rule of weather forecasting: anything more than 2 weeks in the future is WORTHLESS. And more than one week, only worth a little bit.

 

 

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