Read the posts regarding las winter season, thank God I didn't go. Anywhere. For 6 years.
So, what y'all predict for the upcoming season? NE & Southern Colorado/N. Mexico especially "worry" me.
All the best.
1. f you'd wanted to go somewhere last year, the PNW, BC and Alaska were getting the goods most of the winter. We had a very good year.
2. An El Nino looks to be starting to form, and that's normally good news for southern CO and NM, why are you worried?
3. I have no idea what this season will do, but there will probably be good snow somewhere, there almost always is.
Which is why Shredhead's comment in your other thread is so good: Choose where you want to stay on the actual Christmas holiday which this year is likely to be the 22nd to the 26th this year, and then play the rest by ear without advance reservations. Each of these places can have great or lousy snow that time of year.
You seem to be driving from the south and wanting to make a loop which is a sound idea. (Skip Silverton because you like groomed snow, right? It has NONE ever.)
For groomers, it's less risky because they can make snow and hold it. larger resorts like Tride and CB will likely have more groomers to choose from than resorts like Santa Fe and Wolf Creek and Monarch that depend more on natural snow.
If I'm reading the Map right doesn't look too encouraging for a decent winter here in Pa. I'm getting pretty much resigned to the fact that we will only experience "decent" winters here only a couple of seasons every decade.
Anyway, hopefully Colorado shows a big improvement over last season . I read an article in the paper a couple weeks ago that made a case for the weather here in Pa. to have an equivalent climate to the current Alabama climate by 2050. I'll be long gone, but if there is even a thread of merit to this prediction and climate modeling it doesn't look like we have much of a chance of having to many cold and snowy winters in the interim. Hopefully this isn't true.
Played golf here every month last year but Feb. and that was only because I didn't get out during the week. There were still plenty of 50 degree sunny days.
Have to wait and see and hope for the best.
or no expectations. it is what it is and what it will be. Living in the past or future is futile. it could be argued that there is no past or future, only this moment. (OK, that's my Zen lesson for the day)
Forecasts don't seem to be very reliable, so it seems pointless to have expectations. I will say that man made snow seemed better to me last year than in past years.
There must have been some improvements. Either that or wishful thinking......
With regard to El Nino, http://18.104.22.168/~bestsnow/El_Nino.htm
El Nino strong positive effect is limited to Southern California, Arizona and Brian Head. Mild positive for New Mexico. South and West Colorado areas Telluride, Aspen Crested Butte had record high seasons during the 2008 La Nina; it's a misconception that these areas are favored by El Nino.
Also, El Nino snow effects are less consistent than La Ninas, If the Southwest areas get a bump there's no predictability when that might occur and some anecdotal evidence that the late season is more likely to get the benefit. Southwest ski areas are generally safest in February/March and an El Nino or La Nina prediction does nothing to change that as the most important recommendation for those booking in advance.
With regard to El Nino, http://bestsnow.net/El_Nino.htm
Or, better yet, a link that works (): http://22.214.171.124/~bestsnow/El_Nino.htm
Agree you can't trust a weather forecast beyond 48 hours, if then. But general climate predictions over a season? maybe?
GEOea.org claims that:
"The largest problem for snow lovers last winter wasn’t only the La Nina, but rather the temperature of the stratosphere and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)."
and that these two phenomena have reversed and therefore they are also making early predictions of a good snow year.
is that more BS or is there something to that?