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How Bad/Good will it be 2012/13?

post #1 of 27
Thread Starter 

Read the posts regarding las winter season, thank God I didn't go.  Anywhere.  For 6 years.

 

So, what y'all predict for the upcoming season?  NE & Southern Colorado/N. Mexico especially "worry" me.

 

All the best.

post #2 of 27

Using the highly scientific WAG method, I'm going with "similar to '02-'03".

post #3 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantunamunch View Post

Using the highly scientific WAG method, I'm going with "similar to '02-'03".


how was the 02-03 season? :)

post #4 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by gpaulski View Post

So, what y'all predict for the upcoming season?  NE & Southern Colorado/N. Mexico especially "worry" me.
Cautiously hopeful for NM & CO. Here's the NOAA outlook for Dec-Jan-Feb:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6

I've always said that I'd be happy with an average season in NM.
post #5 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by gpaulski View Post

Read the posts regarding las winter season, thank God I didn't go.  Anywhere.  For 6 years.

 

So, what y'all predict for the upcoming season?  NE & Southern Colorado/N. Mexico especially "worry" me.

 

All the best.

 

3 comments...

 

1. f you'd wanted to go somewhere last year, the PNW, BC and Alaska were getting the goods most of the winter.  We had a very good year.

2. An El Nino looks to be starting to form, and that's normally good news for southern CO and NM, why are you worried?

3. I have no idea what this season will do, but there will probably be good snow somewhere, there almost always is.

post #6 of 27

Which is why Shredhead's comment in your other thread is so good: Choose where you want to stay on the actual Christmas holiday which this year is likely to be the 22nd to the 26th this year, and then play the rest by ear without advance reservations. Each of these places can have great or lousy snow that time of year.

 

You seem to be driving from the south and wanting to make a loop which is a sound idea. (Skip Silverton because you like groomed snow, right? It has NONE ever.)

 

For groomers, it's less risky because they can make snow and hold it. larger resorts like Tride and CB will likely have more groomers to choose from than resorts like Santa Fe and Wolf Creek and Monarch that depend more on natural snow.

post #7 of 27

Can I tell you in April? 

post #8 of 27
Thread Starter 

Thanky all.

 

NOAA looks ok....

 

Just changed arrival to DENVER rather than Santa Fe, will go to Taos if it's got adequate cover.

 

MOM, tks for reminder.
 

post #9 of 27

If I'm reading the Map right doesn't look too encouraging for a decent winter here in Pa. I'm getting pretty much resigned to the fact that we will only experience "decent" winters here only a couple of seasons every decade.

 

Anyway, hopefully Colorado shows a big improvement over last season . I read an article in the paper a couple weeks ago that made a case for the weather here in Pa. to have an equivalent climate to the current Alabama climate by 2050. I'll be long gone, but if there is even a thread of merit to this prediction and climate modeling it doesn't look like we have much of a chance of having to many cold and snowy winters in the interim. Hopefully this isn't true.

 

 

Played golf here every month last year but Feb. and that was only because I didn't get out during the week. There were still plenty of 50 degree sunny days.

 

Have to wait and see and hope for the best.

post #10 of 27

I've decided there is nothing to do but wait till it actually comes. The weather guys are rarely right and when they are I attribute it to statistics rather than them. A broken watch is right twice a day

post #11 of 27

It'll be March-mid April for me at Tahoe. Worse case scenario is groomers at Nstar. 

post #12 of 27

It is going to be the best season ever!

 

/optimism is free

post #13 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abox View Post

 

/optimism is free

pessimism is better - you're always happy even when it's a disaster :)

post #14 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by veteran View Post

pessimism is better - you're always happy even when it's a disaster :)

 

The key to happiness is low expectations.

post #15 of 27

 I think this coming season will be okay. Nothing to be excited about.

post #16 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by segbrown View Post

 

The key to happiness is low expectations.

 

or no expectations. it is what it is and what it will be. Living in the past or future is futile. it could be argued that there is no past or future, only this moment.  (OK, that's my Zen lesson for the day)  

post #17 of 27

Forecasts don't seem to be very reliable, so it seems pointless to have expectations.  I will say that man made snow seemed better to me last year than in past years.

There must have been some improvements.  Either that or wishful thinking......

post #18 of 27

no one knows, its July, stop torturing yourself.

post #19 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by veteran View Post

pessimism is better - you're always happy even when it's a disaster :)

 

 

Low expectations don't make bad conditions suck any less; you're just grumpier for longer.

post #20 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finndog View Post

no one knows, its July, stop torturing yourself.


End of thread. Go where it snows.  Have a great winter.

post #21 of 27

No matter where you go, there you ski.

post #22 of 27
Thread Starter 

Everything up-to-now points towards El Niño, good snowfalls in CO, especially southern Rockies and Taos.  Que será, será.

post #23 of 27
Quote:
The weather guys are rarely right and when they are I attribute it to statistics rather than them. A broken watch is right twice a day

+1

 

With regard to El Nino, http://173.193.223.192/~bestsnow/El_Nino.htm

 

El Nino strong positive effect is limited to Southern California, Arizona and Brian Head.  Mild positive for New Mexico.  South and West Colorado areas Telluride, Aspen Crested Butte had record high seasons during the 2008 La Nina; it's a misconception that these areas are favored by El Nino.

 

Also, El Nino snow effects are less consistent than La Ninas,  If the Southwest areas get a bump there's no predictability when that might occur and some anecdotal evidence that the late season is more likely to get the benefit.  Southwest ski areas are generally safest in February/March and an El Nino or La Nina prediction does nothing to change that as the most important recommendation for those booking in advance.


Edited by Tony Crocker - 8/12/12 at 5:03pm
post #24 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

Quote:
The weather guys are rarely right and when they are I attribute it to statistics rather than them. A broken watch is right twice a day

+1

 

With regard to El Nino, http://bestsnow.net/El_Nino.htm

Or, better yet, a link that works (wink.gif):  http://173.193.223.192/~bestsnow/El_Nino.htm

post #25 of 27

Tony,

 

Agree you can't trust a weather forecast beyond 48 hours, if then. But general climate predictions over a season? maybe?

 

GEOea.org claims that:

 

"The largest problem for snow lovers last winter wasn’t only the La Nina, but rather the temperature of the stratosphere and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)."

 

and that these two phenomena have reversed and therefore they are also making early predictions of a good snow year.

 

is that more BS or is there something to that?

post #26 of 27
I'm not familiar with the MJO, but the Arctic Oscillation being in the opposite phase from 2010-11 was blamed by many for last year. These other factors can be very important, but my understanding is that they are not predictable months in advance. On the other hand an El Nino/La Nina condition in September/October is very likely to persist through the northern winter.
post #27 of 27
The MJO is an oscillation that circles near the equator and passes through every 45-60 days. It was stronger last season in the presence of other factors and tended to limit precip to times of its general passage in some places.

In Colorado, the early October and mid-January snows were attributed to the MJO...with the early season more reminiscent of a strong El Niño in some southern areas. It was enough here that we were hoping a final MJO passage in mid-April would give us a good season close, but when you are waiting on something like that you know you are spending too much time reading weather forecasts.
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