Wishing for El Nino is probably pretty selfish considering the global implications, but that is precisely what I am doing right now given how unkind La Nina has been to most of us frozen H20 gravity sliders residing in Western North America below the latitude of the Columbia River.
It doesn't hurt to cross you fingers and hope. Apologies in advance to Peruvian fisherman, mudslide prone homeowners in Southern California, powhounds in Chile waiting for a late winter-early spring dump, and any other creatures adversely effected by the warm water boy.
Feel free to post any updated Pacific water temperature models or anomalies here.
El Nino by Late Summer/Fall?
May 16, 2012; 12:11 PM ET
Is it ever too early to talk about the next winter season in the West? Because water supplies and recreational winter sports depend so greatly on the economy, the answer has to be no, it is never to early. So let's have a look at what it may be looking like down the line.
As most know, we were in a La Nina through the fall and much of the winter months but with a trend the ENSO neutral by late winter and spring. This may be one reason we had the late surge in precipitation in California to the central Great Basin.
Models all are pretty close in agreement right now through the summer that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue. Most of the models, including the CFS Ensemble mean, predict the development of El Nino in the August-September-October period and to continue into early 2013.
Here is the Pacific Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature outlook from a number of models.
This graph shows that most of the models take the sea surface anomalies to 0.5 degrees C and above starting in the August-September-October period.
The CFS ensemble mean also predicts the same.
The following bar graph shows the probability of each ENSO. There is a high probability of neutral early on trending toward at least equal chance by this fall and winter.
It will be critical to watch how these numbers change with time as we go into and through the summer. Right now, odds are favoring at least a weak El Nino next winter.
Edited by altabrig - 6/6/12 at 8:03pm