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This season's temps and what to look forward to

post #1 of 5
Thread Starter 

This NOAA page: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ shows that not only was it a seriously bad winter, and crazy warm March in the NE, but that it's been 324 weeks since the U.S. had any month with below 20th century average temps. That's February 1985! Unfortunately, long range forecasts indicate more of the same next season, especially for the NE. Apparently La Nina is giving up, we'll swing back to El Nino. 

 

Makes me look twice at serious crud and slush skis...

post #2 of 5
post #3 of 5
Quote:
Originally Posted by beyond View Post

This NOAA page: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ shows that not only was it a seriously bad winter, and crazy warm March in the NE, but that it's been 324 weeks since the U.S. had any month with below 20th century average temps. That's February 1985! Unfortunately, long range forecasts indicate more of the same next season, especially for the NE. Apparently La Nina is giving up, we'll swing back to El Nino. 

 

Makes me look twice at serious crud and slush skis...



I think we were coming out of a little ice age at the end of the 19th century: I know that early 20th century temps were much lower than at the end of the century.  Portland (OR) used to average 31 inches of snow a year back in the 1930's: now, the city shuts down and people abandon their cars, running for the hills, at the sight of a snowflake. Bend's average yearly snowfall is also around 1/2 of what it was in the first half of the 20th century.  We still get some moisture, but it now falls as rain much of the time, instead of exclusively snow. In the past 10 years or so, it seems the weather has been more "extreme": really warm temps when we shouldn't get them, lots of cold and wet weather that hangs on for much longer than normal. Not much in the way of "average" temps and snowfall.

 

That link you used did not work.

post #4 of 5

Does anyone have any information, since 1880, what the correlation coefficient is between the "long term forecast" and what actually ends up happening?

post #5 of 5
Thread Starter 

Dawg, here's a healthy link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

 

Can't speak to little ice ages, but not unreasonable. Agree about the variation; that's what climatologists are saying. Not that everywhere will get steadily warmer but that there will be more extreme weather, more swings. Skis that can handle refrozen and ice one day and slop and crud the next should do really well. 

 

VC, not sure there's any way to answer your question because not sure what you mean by long range. The one year NOAA forecast pages include a lot of serious methodological links. My sense is that it's a decent but not amazing R Sq (% variation explained) because of all the intervening variables, gets stronger each month closer to next season, obviously. They underestimated the extent of the warm middle winter almost everywhere, and the March temps in NE, but had the general pattern right. I'd guess they're trapped in the same problem that your local weather channel is: Forecasts depend on historical data. When the trend is outside historical averages, the estimates will be conservative. That's why the weather channel was systematically underestimating the following week's temps this March by 2-4 degrees each day.

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