Our annual Utah trip is Feb 12-16. Weather outlook is so bleak. Nat'l Weather Service, Accuweather, Weather.com, you name it: virtually no chance of snow for the next 2 weeks. And they seem awfully confident. Reading the 8-14 day NWS discussion is downright depressing.
This got me wondering, can anyone quantify how accurate these are forecasts really are? This year they seem to be pretty spot on. They keep saying it won't snow, and it almost never does. But in other years it seemed they couldn't really say what would happen 4 or 5 days out.
In my line of work this type of thing would be studied to death. In other words, look at past 8-14 day projections in retrospect and score their historical accuracy. Break it down by month or season.
So, is it hopeless? Are they right most of the time?
Edited by hirustler - 2/3/12 at 8:30am