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post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 

Is the current weather pattern that has left CO/UT so dry likely to change in mid/late January?  What needs to happen?  I've looked at extended forecasts and they do not look favorable but I'm hoping for a "pattern change" as January wears on.

post #2 of 19

This sucks -- 64 degrees here in Omaha today. That's twice the normal high of 32 degrees.

 

Worst part is having it hear how great the weather is from all of the weather people on TV/Radio...

eek.gif

 

I remember hearing a forecast last fall saying our winter here was supposed to be colder and snowier than normal.

post #3 of 19

I am really seeing a shift by or before mid-month, not crazy deep right off, but it will start in. I am curious at what point a lot of skier's decide to pull the plug on the season.

post #4 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finndog View Post

I am really seeing a shift by or before mid-month, not crazy deep right off, but it will start in. I am curious at what point a lot of skier's decide to pull the plug on the season.



When they stop running the liftsbiggrin.gif

 

post #5 of 19

As we all know, weather forecasts more than 3-4 days out tend to be unreliable. Although one can argue about overall weather patterns or trends, I wouldn't think any of the models being forecast for 15,21, or 30 days out are worth much. Until the jet stream starst to shift further south, and allow some cool air in from the Gulf of AK/Artic that pushes in toward North/Central Cali, this is the weather we are stuck with. Maybe the birds in the South Pacific aren't flying as much, and that is causing a more northerly flow. Maybe someone in UT or CO cursed Ullr, and he has flipped the bird at those folks. Who the heck knows. It'll be bitter sweet for me being here in Seattle, and skiing great conditions right now, and then possibly head off to CO in 30 days, and ski icy man made groomers, or God forbid rent mtn bikes...

post #6 of 19

GFS models are lighting up Tahoe and UT with precip around January 16th. Stay tuned.

post #7 of 19

Like Finndog, I am seeing more and more signs of a pattern shift around mid month.The shift seems to at least allow the possibility of some significant storms. However, what actually happens with shift seems to be totally unknown. Weather models go from huge storms to completely dry. I have heard that models have great difficulty in forecasting when a pattern shift is occurring. Bottom line, at least it seems there is a change coming. Hopefully one that brings some snow. Cross fingers and toes. 

post #8 of 19

yeah, once that shift occurs its anyones guess really.depends on what's developing behind it.  It could move everything to the perfect stream or even waver and go back, there's a huge block off the coast thats the evil cuprit.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maui Steve View Post

Like Finndog, I am seeing more and more signs of a pattern shift around mid month.The shift seems to at least allow the possibility of some significant storms. However, what actually happens with shift seems to be totally unknown. Weather models go from huge storms to completely dry. I have heard that models have great difficulty in forecasting when a pattern shift is occurring. Bottom line, at least it seems there is a change coming. Hopefully one that brings some snow. Cross fingers and toes. 



 

post #9 of 19

Here are some encouraging projections-  SEE IF THIS LINK WILL OPEN AND RUN THE MODEL ANIMATION   It really starts to look good after the 15th on with some rather large storms one after another.

 

SATURDAY 14th

 

 

MONDAY

 

THURSDAY 19TH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
post #10 of 19
Thread Starter 

Thanks.  That's the kind of info I was looking for.  I know no one has a crystal ball, but at least there is hope!

post #11 of 19

Yes, there is some hope...long range forecast from Snowforecast.com for Alta.

 

"Long range forecast / discussion...January 12 to 15

--We expect another chance for snow on the 11th/ 12th (next Wednesday, possibly Thursday) as an unsettled northwest flow aloft (between high pressure across the west coast and low pressure across the Great lakes/ Upper Midwest) delivers some mostly fast moving shortwave low pressure systems across Colorado and northern Utah, containing potential (mostly) light snow. Toward mid January (next weekend), the ridge across the western US may start breaking down as an arctic front and strong jet stream push south out of Canada across most of the country. The degree to which high pressure across the eastern Pacific weakens (it may not be much), will determine how much snow is possible with our snow storms, but it looks like there will be more moisture available from off the Pacific than what we have been seeing. We will watch and see how this plays out.

We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter, peaking in strength by January, then weakening afterward and into summer 2012. We expect a better last 1/2 to January and into February as the pattern changes. CM"


 

post #12 of 19

Hopefully, doesn't mean much. Yesterday's GFS runs were more hopeful for major storminess. The last two runs today pretty much suck for next 16 days. Some dribs and drabs, but nothing substantial, except in BC. Hopefully models struggling with the pattern change.  

post #13 of 19

Weather underground.com has a blog by Dr. Jeff Masters talking about the current pattern. Unfortunately, he says it's to continue for at least another 2 weeks. Worth reading, but hopefully he's incorrect. And I know I shouldn't live or die by the GFS model runs out past 10 days, but the very latest one has storminess again in about 12 days . The two runs before that, you don't even want to look at. Too depressing.Oh well, it's only a vacation. I guess I can cancel and work instead. Oh boy!   

post #14 of 19

I wonder if it holds true that watching the GFS models looking for snow, is the same as watching a pot of water not boil?wink.gif

 

I think I'm going to tune out of the weather watching/snow forecasts for a few days, and just take a wait and see approach. At least I know the snow will be good anywhere I decide to go tomorrow here in WA...

post #15 of 19

There are robust signs of a change coming in two weeks. There looks to be a major warming of the stratosphere and breakdown of the polar vortex. That will release a lot of cold air of a the arctic to come play with us in the continental US.

post #16 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by bliz1978 View Post

There are robust signs of a change coming in two weeks. There looks to be a major warming of the stratosphere and breakdown of the polar vortex. That will release a lot of cold air of a the arctic to come play with us in the continental US.


I'll hold you to it!  This weather is so depressing I can't get the energy to make any more gaper boys...   frown.gif

 

post #17 of 19


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman View Post

I wonder if it holds true that watching the GFS models looking for snow, is the same as watching a pot of water not boil?wink.gif


The GFS model always sucks when you want snow, it has been that way forever.  I can remember when I figured out that The Weather Channel was based on the GFS and I stopped paying attention to their overly optimistic forecasts entirely.

 

I rely on the GFS when the NAM and European are in good agreement, otherwise the most pessimistic computer simulation is usually most accurate.  And the GFS is relatively pessimistic for this next storm...and is probably correct.

 

The NWS often talks about the poor terrain resolution of the GFS model.  And unless the storm is very strong, terrain makes all the difference, i.e. upslope v. downslope.

 

It has improved over the last 3 or 4 years, but when the GFS is the optimistic simulation out of the bunch I just ignore it based on its bias to more snow in the medium range forecast.

 

post #18 of 19

Turns out all the models were too pessimistic on this storm. Based on forecast yesterday, I thought they'd only get a few inches at best. 7 so far at 

snowbird. May not get too much more, but that has to help. 

post #19 of 19

Yep, it is looking decent. snowfalling.gif

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