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Colorado January 12-16... Should I cancel?

post #1 of 26
Thread Starter 

Hi Everyone,

I planned a trip to Colorado (Vail, Breck) for MLK weekend. I know that snow conditions have been pretty terrible, but does anybody think it is worth canceling the trip and trying to reschedule it for a later date (if possible?) I will probably lose some money with the hotel and flight with cancellation charges.  I know some snow was forecasted for this weekend, but probably not enough.  Any help would be greatly appreciated! Pictures would be great too.

 

Thanks

post #2 of 26
Thread Starter 

Bump

post #3 of 26
I just cancelled my Aspen/SM trip for MLK weekend and switched to Whistler. I paid a small change fee to switch my airfare (I used miles). Based on snow and weather reports there is no way conditions will improve much prior to our trip. Yeah it cost me a couple hundred dollars but Whistler is looking good. I made the decision today.
post #4 of 26
Duplicate post
post #5 of 26

eastskier27,

 

http://www.epicski.com/t/108398/slc-1-31-2-5-should-i-be-worried

 

check out similar thread regarding SLC, links and such for checking predictions but most i've checked look rather dry.  The advantage with Summit or nearby Vail is altitude so whats there remains but given Vail is only 1/3 open for acreage may not bode well less a newer forecast evolves.

 

I am not familiar with Vail typically hitting Steamboat, really where I learned my basic skills (well, I'm only a 6-7 today ... ) but we used to hit MLK as part of our regular trip, got tired of what seemed jan dry spells and moved into the first week of Feb as it seemed to be the beginnings of better snow, or least wise a Superbowl to catch.

 

anyhow, best I can offer, unfortunately it's only speculation.  I'd go with determining the cost difference for a change and hold out till the last minute. 

post #6 of 26

Hi. 

 

Here is the situation. Conditions right now on the i70 resorts are getting worse and worse each day. Im in Beaver Creek right now and have been for a week and there is less snow and of worse quality now than when I got here. And is wasnt good to start with! And this is one of the best places around right now due to constant grooming, good north facing terrain, less skier traffic and decent snowmaking. 

 

BUT, most resorts have exhausted their snowmaking resources and allowance and have stopped maiking snow. Heard rumors Beaver Creek will again start snowmaking soon.

 

Without any significant snowmaking and without any Really significant natural snowfall to the tune of one to three feet most trails will be unskiable in two weeks. 

 

So, its gonna be a close call for your trip. If I was a betting man I would not bet that there would be a significant change in the current situation by jan 20th. Hope im wrong.

post #7 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by gores95 View Post

I just cancelled my Aspen/SM trip for MLK weekend and switched to Whistler. I paid a small change fee to switch my airfare (I used miles). Based on snow and weather reports there is no way conditions will improve much prior to our trip. Yeah it cost me a couple hundred dollars but Whistler is looking good. I made the decision today.


I cancelled my SLC trip and rebooked to WB, and got in this afternoon. The story now is that it's wet down low, but pretty excellent up top, with a LOT more snow expected in the next few days.

 

Pictures tomorrow.

post #8 of 26
Thread Starter 

Ok everybody... Thanks for the input

post #9 of 26

Definitely pull the plug.  Relocating to western Canada (Whistler is good, but the other places have above average snow too) likes gores95 did would be the best choice.  Alternatively maybe the hotels would give you a break if you rescheduled Colorado to March.

post #10 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by MuchosPixels View Post

Hi. 

 

Here is the situation. Conditions right now on the i70 resorts are getting worse and worse each day. Im in Beaver Creek right now and have been for a week and there is less snow and of worse quality now than when I got here. And is wasnt good to start with! And this is one of the best places around right now due to constant grooming, good north facing terrain, less skier traffic and decent snowmaking. 

 

BUT, most resorts have exhausted their snowmaking resources and allowance and have stopped maiking snow. Heard rumors Beaver Creek will again start snowmaking soon.

 

Without any significant snowmaking and without any Really significant natural snowfall to the tune of one to three feet most trails will be unskiable in two weeks. 

 

So, its gonna be a close call for your trip. If I was a betting man I would not bet that there would be a significant change in the current situation by jan 20th. Hope im wrong.



Thanks for the informative post on  current conditions. Heading to Vail/BC first week of Feb. Just curious if you, or anyone else knows the snowmaking issues, other than temps, that go into how much snow making Vail and BC are able to create.

 

post #11 of 26

yeah, you should all change your plans since there's no snow and we all know exactly what the forecast is going to be.

 

This wasn't predicted as of yesterday for Steamboat.  Yeah, that would suck to have to ski in a foot of pow....(BTW- Most of the Boat has N exposure)

 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW IS
  EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  ON NORTH FACING SLOPES.

 

post #12 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finndog View Post

yeah, you should all change your plans since there's no snow and we all know exactly what the forecast is going to be.

 

This wasn't predicted as of yesterday for Steamboat.  Yeah, that would suck to have to ski in a foot of pow....(BTW- Most of the Boat has N exposure)

 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW IS
  EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  ON NORTH FACING SLOPES.

 



Wow! That's way better than the 2"-6" they were forecasting 48hrs ago! Sweet! Got a friend going there in 2 weeks. They were thinking of canceling the trip today in fact. I sent them a link to the most recent forecast. I just hope that it's the higher number.

 

post #13 of 26

toad, no one knows what the weather will be and you really can't expect a week of untracked powder lines unless you head up to some of the cat outfits in BC (where I was supposed to be next week)

 

I had a great week in these conditions when it should have been buried under several feet

 

chile.jpg

post #14 of 26

 

Quote:
SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  ON NORTH FACING SLOPES.

That's not nearly enough for someone whose trip is only one week away.  We're not talking about surface conditions here. We're talking about a bunch of areas that are less than half open and need 2-3 feet of base building snow.  For someone coming in February, it would be an important step in the right direction.

post #15 of 26

TC,

 

yeah, i have a trip in early feb and glad i still have time to consider.  i'm no expert but hope weather starts to open up, this weekend will give me an idea.   Only watching the boats weather and runs, note that slowly over the last 2 weeks more and more steeps are closed which aligns with the lack of snow and what's reported on most Co resorts.

 

Hopefully Eastskier was able to change plans or if like me, could be happier with blues/greens, but MLK tends to get crowded too.

 

anyone know of what the crowds are like this yr (dry) verse last in rough comparisons?  If folks hit MLK, perhaps they will be less dense than typical due to conditions.  the other thing i fret is perhaps what did Finndog in ... less snow, bit harder pack and possible catch points (rock, ice, tree, etc) up out a thin base which only aids in an injury ...

post #16 of 26

 

Quote:
anyone know of what the crowds are like this yr (dry) verse last in rough comparisons?

 

The bottom line is that most people plan in advance, and very few of them change plans even when they know it's bad due to financial penalties.  So there may be less than half of terrain open but crowds during holidays will not be down by half.  Therefore congestion on open trails is worse, and when you add ice and rocks into the mix it becomes progressively worse through the holiday period.  Remember how Vail Resorts is bragging that through December 31 they had NO decline in lift ticket revenue vs. last year's epic start?

 

A key use of my data is to add historical perspective.  When its snows the areas are quick to say it's the best conditions in X years and I'm usually quick to fact check and provide the real X.   Many seasons start sort of slow so I usually say something like, "We're 2-3 weeks behind schedule in such and such region, try to go a little later and it will probably be OK."  This year is different.  It's clearly the worst to this date in CA, UT and most of CO since 1980-81, and in CA and some of CO current conditions are so bad that the odds of a completely busted season are not insignificant.  Remember almost 40% of the snowfall season is behind us and some of these places are still close to square one.  So for those with trips scheduled into those places, the safest plan is to relocate to a region with more snow.

post #17 of 26
Thread Starter 

Tough decision... I will lose a couple hundred dollars between airfare and lodging which I already booked if I decide to opt out of the trip. I am thinking that I will just go and tough out the conditions and make the most out of it. Hopefully this small storm will help the conditions a little, but thanks to everybody for the help.

post #18 of 26

Just in:

 

 

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/1710/dsc7034d.jpg

 

This is from Snowmass,  At Breck I'm told 1" per hour x 4 hours has fallen. Fingers crossed for more, a lot lot more  

post #19 of 26

hopefully for Eastskier27 and any other bears, the snow keeps a coming.  i noted the snow in the boat today, i've got this and 4 more weekends and a slower crowd weekend so I'll likely be ok, least wise i'll have a trip similar to a midwest "mountain" but with faster lifts! redface.gif  

 

my thought is that MLK even with some decent snow will as TC said still be crowded with a bit less terrain open.  As such, be care full!  My brother and sister in law were in the boat Dec 16-22 and noted too how tough the area was, that several standard greens were closed and a few instructors recommended against runs typically nice.  Snowed since then but sounds conditions are best to take some care on and especially be careful for others of lessor skills.

 

good luck, I'll certainly do a few snow dances for Eastskier27 and others .... and myself wink.gif

 

Keep in mind too that your destination, so even if the skiing isn't top notch, enjoy the community.  I'm certainly gonna enjoy time with family and hot tubs, hot springs, pool, ski town and downtown, food and wine and anything else i can find at the boat and hope others can enjoy whatever their resort offers.  love talking to the locals!

post #20 of 26

I hope this whole lack of snow issue is over by April 7-14 when I go to Vail. 

post #21 of 26

 

Quote:
I will lose a couple hundred dollars between airfare and lodging which I already booked if I decide to opt out of the trip. I am thinking that I will just go and tough out the conditions and make the most out of it.

$200 is chicken feed in context of a trip from the East to Colorado.  It's hard to believe it's not worth at least that to either go somewhere else or postpone that trip into March when you might have something approaching normal skiing.  Here's a TR from Vail yesterday which the author living near DC compared unfavorably to his local skiing there:

 

Quote:
After driving back from Wolf Creek to Vail Friday morning, I skied a few last runs at Vail. Since it was so late, I just skied in the area I could access most quickly, which turned out to be Lionshead, since the Riva Bahn was shut down due to some kind of fire. The conditions were highly variable. The best conditions I found were comparable to average skiing around DC -- machine groomed over hard pack. Not ideal, but for those of us in the MASH, about par for the course. Other runs would not even have been open at resorts around DC -- exposed soil all the way across the run, making it impossible to avoid, and one short black run with a surface so hard that you couldn't set an edge -- you just focused on staying upright while you skidded along!

This person was locked into last week.  I persuaded him to abandon his prepaid lodging at Vail and spend most of his week at Wolf Creek.

post #22 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolfelot View Post

I hope this whole lack of snow issue is over by April 7-14 when I go to Vail. 



Gee, thanksrolleyes.gif That doesn't help the 90% of us that have trips planned before April.

post #23 of 26

 

Quote:
the 90% of us that have trips planned before April.

Anyone scheduled into I-70 Colorado before March should be investigating NOW how to postpone the trip or preferably go somewhere else.

post #24 of 26

TC,

 

good to hear you swayed Eastskier27 into Wolf!  

 

I still hope some weather changes but least wise, I'll still enjoy the destination as much as the skiing .... well, maybe more if the snow gods don't offer some relief!  I don't need much, just a little fluff will make my day, or week.  Otherwise, may as well hope for warm sun and softer groomers.    Geesh, what a sad sad statement to make in January frown.gif

 

 

 

 

post #25 of 26
Thread Starter 

Alright everyone... Changed my mind. Canceled everything with a total loss of about 600$. The airlines are letting me pay 150 to cancel, but I can credit the rest towards another ticket.  Hoping to book another trip to either Colorado or Snowbird the first weekend of March. Think I should be alright?? Thanks for all the help

post #26 of 26

 

Quote:
Hoping to book another trip to either Colorado or Snowbird the first weekend of March. Think I should be alright??

Probably.  Both current base and historical record favor Snowbird over Colorado.   But why not Banff or Whistler since you're now free to choose? 

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EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › Mountain/Resort Related Forums › Resorts, Conditions & Travel › Colorado January 12-16... Should I cancel?