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I thought it was supposed to be La Nina...?

post #1 of 17
Thread Starter 

Were lacking snow, and theres nothing in the forcast. I just ordered new skis, but I may not be able to use them untill late January If these conditions persist. Maybe we were just spoiled last year, we are at 88% of average right now, was last year so epic that im going to be bummed this entire year?

post #2 of 17

the accuvue long term forecast for Canada looks bad for BC too. Colder and drier :( but better than back home; poor Blue Mountain and MSLM still haven't opened!

post #3 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowyphil65 View Post

 Maybe we were just spoiled last year, we are at 88% of average right now, was last year so epic that im going to be bummed this entire year?


Depends how you look at it- if you try comparing strictly to last year, then it is likely a lot of days may disappoint.  However, if you compare a day skiing this year to a day in the office, it is likely that you will usually have a smile on your face.

 

post #4 of 17

For about 2 weeks it seemed like La Nina in BC, hasn't snow much at all since >.<

 

Edit: Glad I decided on getting my Bushwackers over some other 100mm ski's I was looking at considering the forecast doesn't show much snow for a while...

post #5 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Metaphor_ View Post

the accuvue long term forecast for Canada looks bad for BC too. Colder and drier :( but better than back home; poor Blue Mountain and MSLM still haven't opened!


Tell me about it.  I have next week off and wanted to get out there while all the kids are still in school.  Horseshoe is reporting 2 runs open right now.  UGH.  Glen Eden is making snow so fingers crossed, no news at Hockley.  Was even contemplating a quick trip to New York to Holiday Valley or Bristol Mountain.  This whole geographic zone is crap right now.  I think I wanna cry.

 

post #6 of 17
It was crazy in western Canada. Most runs are open already, even had waist deep pow my first day of season. Not much snow lately though.
post #7 of 17

Ya it was good early on, almost no where has gotten much snow since frown.gif

post #8 of 17

It's a weak La Nina which apparently has little value in prediciting seasonal snowfall.  I read that La Nina should peak around late January so maybe it will eventually have an effect.  I'm sure the weather experts will correct me if I'm wrong.

 

If you're at 88% snowpack, you're doing better than the rest of the country.  Way better than around here.

post #9 of 17

Lots of snow in the mountains outside of L.A.  and a surprising amount of rain in Southern CA.   While Tahoe and indeed the Northwest is relatively dry Taos NM reports:

 

Taos Snowfall Amounts:
  • 9" in the last 24 hours
  • 14" in the last 5 days
  • 45" base depth

 

Meanwhile at Kirkwood, which relies mostly on natural snow,  They will not open until (tentatively) December 17, and the following conditions are reported:

Kirkwood Snow Stats

Last 24 Hours 0"
Last 48 Hours 0"
Storm Total 0"
Last 7 Days 0"
 
Seasonal Total Range 34 -36"
Base Depth 11"

 

 

This is exactly the opposite of what we would expect in a La Nina year.

post #10 of 17
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hirustler View Post

It's a weak La Nina which apparently has little value in prediciting seasonal snowfall.  I read that La Nina should peak around late January so maybe it will eventually have an effect.  I'm sure the weather experts will correct me if I'm wrong.

 

If you're at 88% snowpack, you're doing better than the rest of the country.  Way better than around here.



I think 44% of the 88% blew away, base is maybe 7-10 inches in places, not too many spots deeper than that. Our average/year is only about 225-250in

 

post #11 of 17

Most resorts in the Rockies have gotten 200+cm this year so far, so it started out well, been dry the last few weeks though...

post #12 of 17

IT'S NOT EVEN WINTER YET.

 

Sorry for the caps, but c'mon.

post #13 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayT View Post

IT'S NOT EVEN WINTER YET.

Sorry for the caps, but c'mon.


For some us it is biggrin.gif
post #14 of 17

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, the mountains of Southern California got a little snow, but the state’s biggest snow hill, Mammoth Mountain, is still feeling pretty bony. Fun, but as much fun as man-made snow can be. And we have that lil’ La Niña to blame.

But wait, last year was also a La Niña year, and Mammoth got blasted with more than 668 inches of snow, including epic pre-Christmas dumps that made for a great holiday season. This year, according to the Mammoth Mountain website, we’re sitting at 49 inches. What gives?

“Last year was not a normal La Niña year,” says Howard Sheckter, owner of MammothWeather.comand for 32 years a familiar forecaster to Mammoth skiers, who know him as the “Dweeb.”

“Typically, in a La Nina year, it becomes drier as it moves south," he said. "The weather is up in the Pacific Northwest, it’s considered above normal temperatures from Northern California up through Washington and Oregon and into British Columbia. And when you get down to the Central California, you’re on the dividing line so it’s equal chances of a normal winter. When you get into Southern California, it’s usually drier than normal.”

 A La Niña year happens when Pacific Ocean surface water temperatures north and south of the equator are colder than average. This year is a moderate La Niña, with temps about 1 degree Celsius colder than average. An El Niño year is the opposite, when the water temperatures are higher than normal, making for wetter winters.

So far, then, we’re having a typical La Niña, which should mean average snow, or around 340 inches. But Sheckter says we might not expect that to start showing up until the end of January.

Why? A weather pattern or “teleconnection” called the Arctic Oscillation is in a positive phase, which has high pressure ridges parked off the Central Coast and splits the fronts that come through, sending the energy north and south, missing Mammoth. Bummer for the snowpack.

Sheckter says he expects that oscillation to normalize or flip, however, near the end of January and for the big snow to hit then.

“I think the further into January we go, the better the chance that the pattern will change and become wetter, and as we get into February, especially the first half of March, it could be very wet here in Mammoth. That would be my best guess.”

You heard him use the word “guess.”

More fun with weather soon

 

post #15 of 17
Quote:
“teleconnection” called the Arctic Oscillation is in a positive phase

 

 

Sounds like something from Star Trek.  Where's Spock when you need him, sheesh.  Must......have........more..........snow.......!!!
 

 

post #16 of 17

It's the worst winter I've had since moving here, I know that much.  We are actually DOWNLOADING at the end of the day.  

post #17 of 17

Dry and cold here, has been for weeks.  We will get storms eventually; we need the storms now, though.  Can't afford a bad Christmas around here, it is about 40% of our winters revenue.  Unfortunately, snowmaking on Bachelor is limited to 1 run.  We just rarely have an issue here.   

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