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Calling all meteorologists... (or, where's it gonna dump this year?)

post #1 of 26
Thread Starter 

Been reading up on the weather predictions for the coming year. Sounds like it's kind of like trying to predict the lottery. BUT, the good news for most resorts in the US is that la nina might strike again.

 

So, predictions people. What resorts are going to have the highest snowfall this coming season? Is it really as simple as looking at last year's reports?

post #2 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by rushbikes View Post

Been reading up on the weather predictions for the coming year. Sounds like it's kind of like trying to predict the lottery. BUT, the good news for most resorts in the US is that la nina might strike again.

 

So, predictions people. What resorts are going to have the highest snowfall this coming season? Is it really as simple as looking at last year's reports?



Baker.

 

 

post #3 of 26

I'm probably going on the same resources others have seen: maps indicating the expected La Nina precipitation patterns. It looks like the northern half of the country (specifically the northwest) is going to get a lot more precipitation than usual. Going south, moisture approaches average somewhere around the southern Colorado latitude, and turns below average further south.

 

So, I'd guess a lot of places in WA, OR and BC will have very good years, and maybe Tahoe. Most of Colorado is supposed to be slightly above average, and NM is supposed to be below average. Not sure about the east. 

 

http://unofficialnetworks.com/winter-snowfall-weather-outlook-2012-noaa-predictions-46774/

post #4 of 26



Agreed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ecimmortal View Post



Baker.

 

 



 

post #5 of 26

As always when this comes up, I refer people to Tony Crocker's site:  http://gator1314.hostgator.com/~bestsnow/La_Nina.htm

 

 

Area Monthly Seasonal Seasons
       
Strongly favored by La Nina      
 Big Mountain, Mont.   6,700     -33.0%    
 Castle Mt., Alb.  5,700 -32.8%              42
 Mt. Hood Meadows, Ore.   5,400 -21.8% -60.3%            22
 Sunshine Village, Alb.  7,028 -24.2% -58.4%            41
 Mt. Baker, Wash.   4,300 -22.4% -56.4%            21
 Jackson Hole, Wyo.   8,250   -23.4% -54.2%            44
 Fernie Snow Valley, B. C.  5,400    -18.2% -51.6%            22
 Mt. Rainier Paradise, Wash. 5,420 -25.6% -51.5%            45
 Silver Star, B. C.  5,200 -24.2% -48.9%            18
 Steamboat, Colo.   9,200    -22.3% -48.1%            28
 Mt. Fidelity (Selkirks), B. C.  6,150 -19.7% -47.7%            42
 Whistler Base, B. C.   2,200   -24.9% -46.1%            39
 Schweitzer, Idaho   4,700   -24.4%    
 Bridger Bowl, Mont.   7,100     -23.8%    
 Teton Pass, Wyo.   8,000 -21.3%    
 Snoqualmie Pass, Wash.   3,000 -19.1%    
       
Mildly favored by La Nina      
 Smuggler's Notch, Vt.   1,600 -18.9% -45.3%            19
 Lake Louise, Alb.  6,700 -18.6% -42.2%            42
 Brundage, Idaho   6,000    -40.7%            23
 Cannon Mt., N. H. 1,800 -19.6% -39.0%            35
 Mt. Bachelor, Ore.   6,350  -20.7% -36.3%            38
 Tod Mt. (Sun Peaks), B. C.  6,100 -18.2%    
 Mt. Norquay, Alb.  5,350 -16.3% -32.7%            20
 Jay Peak, Vt.  3,000 -16.2% -34.0%            30
 Stevens Pass, Wash.   4,061 -17.3%    
 Crystal Mtn 2, Wash.   6,100 -16.7%    
 Loon, N. H.   2,000 -16.4%    
 Mt. St. Anne, Que.  2,000  -15.7%    
 Crystal Mtn 1, Wash.   4,400  -15.5%    
 Big White, B. C.  6,200 -14.6% -35.7%            26
 Grand Targhee, Wyo.   8,200 -17.4% -34.8%            35
 Crater Lake (Mt. Bailey), Ore.   6,800 -16.8% -34.0%            45
 Stowe, Vt.  3,950 -13.9% -29.7%            45
 Spencer's Creek, Australia   5,903   -25.8%            53

 

post #6 of 26



Woo! Big Mtn at the top.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sibhusky View Post

As always when this comes up, I refer people to Tony Crocker's site:  http://gator1314.hostgator.com/~bestsnow/La_Nina.htm

 

 

Area Monthly Seasonal Seasons
       
Strongly favored by La Nina      
 Big Mountain, Mont.   6,700     -33.0%    
 Castle Mt., Alb.  5,700 -32.8%              42
 Mt. Hood Meadows, Ore.   5,400 -21.8% -60.3%            22
 Sunshine Village, Alb.  7,028 -24.2% -58.4%            41
 Mt. Baker, Wash.   4,300 -22.4% -56.4%            21
 Jackson Hole, Wyo.   8,250   -23.4% -54.2%            44
 Fernie Snow Valley, B. C.  5,400    -18.2% -51.6%            22
 Mt. Rainier Paradise, Wash. 5,420 -25.6% -51.5%            45
 Silver Star, B. C.  5,200 -24.2% -48.9%            18
 Steamboat, Colo.   9,200    -22.3% -48.1%            28
 Mt. Fidelity (Selkirks), B. C.  6,150 -19.7% -47.7%            42
 Whistler Base, B. C.   2,200   -24.9% -46.1%            39
 Schweitzer, Idaho   4,700   -24.4%    
 Bridger Bowl, Mont.   7,100     -23.8%    
 Teton Pass, Wyo.   8,000 -21.3%    
 Snoqualmie Pass, Wash.   3,000 -19.1%    
       
Mildly favored by La Nina      
 Smuggler's Notch, Vt.   1,600 -18.9% -45.3%            19
 Lake Louise, Alb.  6,700 -18.6% -42.2%            42
 Brundage, Idaho   6,000    -40.7%            23
 Cannon Mt., N. H. 1,800 -19.6% -39.0%            35
 Mt. Bachelor, Ore.   6,350  -20.7% -36.3%            38
 Tod Mt. (Sun Peaks), B. C.  6,100 -18.2%    
 Mt. Norquay, Alb.  5,350 -16.3% -32.7%            20
 Jay Peak, Vt.  3,000 -16.2% -34.0%            30
 Stevens Pass, Wash.   4,061 -17.3%    
 Crystal Mtn 2, Wash.   6,100 -16.7%    
 Loon, N. H.   2,000 -16.4%    
 Mt. St. Anne, Que.  2,000  -15.7%    
 Crystal Mtn 1, Wash.   4,400  -15.5%    
 Big White, B. C.  6,200 -14.6% -35.7%            26
 Grand Targhee, Wyo.   8,200 -17.4% -34.8%            35
 Crater Lake (Mt. Bailey), Ore.   6,800 -16.8% -34.0%            45
 Stowe, Vt.  3,950 -13.9% -29.7%            45
 Spencer's Creek, Australia   5,903   -25.8%            53

 



 

post #7 of 26
post #8 of 26



Sounds like it'll be better than last winter!



 

post #9 of 26
Thread Starter 

For whatever reason (probably cause it's AWESOME), I can't help but to play this over and over in my head every time I hear or say La Nina...

 

post #10 of 26

Hahaha ^^^

post #11 of 26

Northeast US beat rest of the country this year when it comes to first snow :)

Or does the credit go to  Wolf Creek, Colo ?

post #12 of 26

If this La Nina plays out like last year, and like a lot of La Nina years, the PNW in March is going to be the place to be.

post #13 of 26

Just booked a week long trip second week of march to whistler.....

 

so i'm banking on PNW baby!!

post #14 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaobrien6 View Post

If this La Nina plays out like last year, and like a lot of La Nina years, the PNW in March is going to be the place to be.



I know your right.

post #15 of 26

Even in the worst year in recent memory, 2004/5, March was a good month in the coastal PNW.  It's a pretty good bet at any time.

post #16 of 26

It's dumping in Denver right now...

 

Wonder how to the mountains are doing with this storm?

post #17 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaobrien6 View Post

If this La Nina plays out like last year, and like a lot of La Nina years, the PNW in March is going to be the place to be.


 

Definitely, but wait until later in the season if you're planning a trip. Last December the temperatures were still pretty mild, and I got to experience skiing in conditions ranging from full on white-out snow storms one moment to pissing rain the next. Of course, the night I left, they got tons of snow. That's usually my luck, though.

post #18 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaobrien6 View Post

If this La Nina plays out like last year, and like a lot of La Nina years, the PNW in March is going to be the place to be.



And that's exactly where I am.   cool.gif

 

Last year Crystal was open until, what mid-July?   And the top elevation is 7,000 feet. 

post #19 of 26

But it took quite a while for the PNW to get going last year.  Overall,  I'd say Jackson had the best season, start to finish.  I also think it's impossible to predict which resort it will be this year?

post #20 of 26

I'd have to agree. Jackson seemed to be fairly consistent last year.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by SHREDHEAD View Post

But it took quite a while for the PNW to get going last year.  Overall,  I'd say Jackson had the best season, start to finish.  I also think it's impossible to predict which resort it will be this year?



 

post #21 of 26

But it's fun to speculate.   I'm actually thinking that the BC interior will get pounded.

 

Still, I'm not so much interested in what areas get the most snow, as long as there is snow.  Oh, I wouldn't mind a few epic powder days when I'm visiting Schweitzer or the Tahoe Gathering, but considering I missed all of last year due to a broken leg, I will be happy just to be skiing.   

post #22 of 26

It's gonna dump in Stowe this year. I've been a good boy, it's our turn this year. We had a great season last year, but all the big storms tracked East of us. Not this time.

post #23 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by SHREDHEAD View Post

But it took quite a while for the PNW to get going last year.  Overall,  I'd say Jackson had the best season, start to finish.  I also think it's impossible to predict which resort it will be this year?



Actually, we fully opened pretty much everywhere by the 11th of November. December was deep, the it shut off for about 2 weeks in January. After that it went nuclear until the middle of April.

post #24 of 26

Usual years around here often start with a bunch of huge dumps that build the base extremely fast in mid November, then some good skiing weather, either a dry spell or a Pinapple Express or two (or both) in late December and January, settling in to regular dumps in February and March and often April too.  Not bad, except for January which seems to be crappy too often.

 

La Nina years follow this pattern too, the dumps are just more frequent, colder, and bigger.

post #25 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Posaune View Post

Usual years around here often start with a bunch of huge dumps that build the base extremely fast in mid November, then some good skiing weather, either a dry spell or a Pinapple Express or two (or both) in late December and January, settling in to regular dumps in February and March and often April too.  Not bad, except for January which seems to be crappy too often.

 

La Nina years follow this pattern too, the dumps are just more frequent, colder, and bigger.



Yeah, what was it last year in Jan/Feb, 3 different Pineapple Express systems in a row?   Then mid February-May, snow snow snow snow snow.

 

09/10 Was that an El Nino year?  Crystal opened 2nd weekend of November,  Stevens the following week, then there was little new snow the first half of December.  I went to Mt Hood Meadows on the first Saturday in December and there was little snow, hence no crowds.  I was making turns around to the tops of small trees where there should be moguls.   Fast forward to early Feb, I was at Meadows on my way to Bachelor, got pounded by snow the whole day,  whiteout on Cascade Express.  First time I've lost my balance due to a whiteout, much better when I got to the treeline. 

 

When I got to Bachelor they had plenty of snow, but the locals were saying it wasn't as light as they usually get. 

 

Still we had a lot of sunny, warm days at Stevens, I was wearing sunglasses more than goggles.

post #26 of 26
Thread Starter 

Any predictions for Europe?

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