You know it's really bad when we get a dusting and everyone gets all excited. Yeesh.
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2011/12 Tahoe Weather & General Discussion - Page 7post #181 of 5541/1/12 at 9:39amThread Starter
Gear mentioned in this thread:post #182 of 5541/1/12 at 10:19pm
O.K. been here for a couple weeks now, it can snow anytime, I'm ready. The hiking has been fantastic and skiing groomers keeps me sorta ok but honestly I didn't come here to do that-i came here to ski. I would take a part time job at this point as I'm not really tired from skiing but honestly if it continues to not snow I'll eat my season passes and move to somewhere that it is happening.
Damn, I really really want to stay here till May!!!!! I've lived in lots of other cool locations and always wanted to ski an entire winter in Tahoe. I really like it here! I have a fair amount invested at this point. I'm not looking for some record year, just some snow, some trees, some good stuff at kirkwood ect.....I'm gonna give this another six weeks.
Sorry for the whiny rant-all better now!post #183 of 5541/2/12 at 12:57ampost #184 of 5541/2/12 at 7:25ampost #185 of 5541/2/12 at 12:16pm
I was talking to myself, I was actually happy to get this after Squaw. The condition probably will depend on temperature and time of day but the surface is very hard. IMHO, Round house has the best condition, summit is kind of bare at the top. I also think it is very dangerous with crowd because the condition is fast. Rock skis is good idea. I saw more loose rocks as the day progress.
Quote:post #186 of 5541/2/12 at 2:40pmpost #187 of 5541/2/12 at 6:20pmpost #188 of 5541/2/12 at 6:29pmpost #189 of 5541/2/12 at 6:37pmQuote:
Will see you out there, eh!post #190 of 5541/2/12 at 6:39pm
Farmers Almanac reckon I can rent a convertible for the Gathering:
Farmersalmanac's Forecast Sth west - California, Nevada,Utah
1st-3rd. Rain for coast and valleys; snow for the higher terrains. Showers possible Tournament of Roses Parade.
4th-7th. Mostly fair, pleasant.
8th-11th. Pacific storms sweep inland, bringing heavy precipitation. Heavy snow high terrain.
12th-15th. Fair and cold.
16th-19th. Showery with gusty winds, especially along California coast.
20th-23rd. Turning very unsettled.
24th-27th. Clearing, windy.
28th-31st. Fair initially, then turning wet.
1st-3rd. Fair, tranquil spell of weather.
4th-7th. Gusty winds. Snow parts of northern Arizona, Nevada, Utah.
8th-11th. Drier, but noticeably colder.
12th-15th. Showery, windy.
16th-19th. Fair at first, then stormy.
20th-23rd. Mostly fair weather returns.
24th-29th. Milder, then some rain, or (over higher terrain) snow, then clearing, colder conditions.post #191 of 5541/3/12 at 7:52ampost #192 of 5541/3/12 at 6:54pmpost #193 of 5541/3/12 at 6:57pmpost #194 of 5541/3/12 at 7:27pm
Does anyone know whether Squaw has water to continue making snow?
Today was the official California Snow Survey.
California snow survey shows state-wide water content at 19 percent Tahoe 12%
Rich Pedroncelli / AP
Reporters and photographers await Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the Department of Water Resources, left, as carries a snow sample survey pole to began the first snow survey of the new year at the Phillips Station near Echo Summit Calif., Jan. 3, 2012. After one of the driest Decembers in recent years the survey showed the snow pack to to be only one-seventh of an inch in depth, the lowest ever recorded at this site for this time of year.
Rich Pedroncelli / AP
Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the Department of Water Resources, checks the weight of a snow sample during the first snow survey of the new year at the Phillips Station near Echo Summit Calif., Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2012.
Full survey report:
SACRAMENTO – Snow surveyors today reported that California’s mountain snowpack is among the driest for the date on record.
Manual and electronic readings today record the snowpack’s statewide water content at 19 percent of the January 3 average. That is only 7 percent of the average April 1measurement, when the snowpack is normally at its peak before the spring melt.
Despite today’s dry conditions, however, water managers remain cautiously optimistic about this year’s water supply.
“Fortunately, we have most of winter ahead of us, and our reservoir storage is good,” said DWR Director Mark Cowin.
Results of today’s manual readings by the Department of Water Resources (DWR) off Highway 50 near Echo Summit are as follows:
Location Elevation Snow Depth Water Content % of Long Term Average
Alpha 7,600 feet 0 0 0
Phillips Station 6,800 feet 4 .14 1
Lyons Creek 6,700 feet 7.1 2.4 20
Tamarack Flat 6,500 feet Missing
Electronic readings indicate that water content in the northern mountains is 21 percent of normal for the date and 8 percent of the April 1 seasonal average. Electronic readings for the central Sierra show 13 percent of normal for the date and 5 percent of the April 1 average. The numbers for the southern Sierra are 26 percent of average for the date and 9 percent of the April 1 average.
Statewide, the snowpack water content is 19 percent of normal for today’s date and 7 percent of April 1. DWR and cooperating agencies conduct manual snow surveys around the first of the month from January to May. The manual surveys supplement and check the accuracy of real-time electronic readings from sensors up and down the state.
DWR’s initial estimate is that the State Water Project (SWP) will be able to deliver 60 percent of the slightly more than 4 million acre-feet of water requested by the 29 public agencies that supply more than 25 million Californians and nearly a million acres of irrigated farmland.
The 60 percent delivery estimate is largely based on the known quantify of carryover reservoir storage. Unknown is how much snow and rain the state will get the rest of this winter.
Calendar year 2011 illustrates how weather-driven water supply conditions can dramatically change. The initial 2011 estimate was that the SWP would be able to deliver 25 percent of the slightly more than 4 million acre-feet requested. As winter took hold and storms swept the state, a near-record snowpack and heavy rains resulted in deliveries of 80 percent of requests in 2011. The final allocation was 50 percent in 2010, 40 percent in 2009, 35 percent in 2008, and 60 percent in 2007. The last 100 percent allocation – difficult to achieve even in wet years because of Delta pumping restrictions to protect threatened and endangered fish – was in 2006.
Lake Oroville in Butte County, the SWP’s principal storage reservoir with a capacity of 3.5 million acre-feet, is still 72 percent full thanks to last winter’s heavy storms. That is 114 percent of average for the date. Lake Shasta north of Redding, the federal Central Valley Project’s (CVP) largest reservoir with a capacity of 4.5 million acre-feet, is 68 percent full (106 percent of average). San Luis Reservoir in Merced County, an important reservoir south of the Delta, is 95 percent full (137 percent of average for the date). San Luis, with a capacity of 2, 027,840 acre-feet, is an important source of water for both the SWP and the CVP when pumping from the Delta is restricted or interrupted.
Edited by Cirquerider - 1/4/12 at 9:02ampost #195 of 5541/3/12 at 7:41pmpost #196 of 5541/4/12 at 6:10amQuote:
Word on the street is NO, they don't. This is all rumor mill stuff, but doesn't really matter if they did, until the end of the week temps are too warm.post #197 of 5541/4/12 at 7:38ampost #198 of 5541/4/12 at 8:33amThread Starterpost #199 of 5541/4/12 at 9:37ampost #200 of 5541/4/12 at 10:01am
Phil and I had Lisa and Andrew Wilde over for apres ski yesterday. Had a nice cook out on the patio in shirt sleeves. It was a nice cook out, and great company but........Not what one would expect to do on Jan 2nd.
I'd rather be with you in a snow drought than in Michigan with all of this...post #201 of 5541/4/12 at 10:13am
Seriously. I would be the same way.
You clearly have not done enough though. It sounds like a full car detailing is in order! Better get waxing!post #202 of 5541/5/12 at 8:56amThread Starter
Quick Comment this morning as we wait for the pattern change that will start on Monday. I am getting lots of comments on all of the blogs that I write (I currently write for 6 sites w/many more sites pulling this site onto theirs) about how it isn’t going to snow for another 3 weeks. I have made lots of comments before about my opinion on only using the forecast models to make a forecast. If you want to make a weather.com forecast that changes 4 times a day go ahead. I don’t understand though how some forecasters throw out what we know about cycles, atmospheric drivers, and history, and just rely on a computer to make a forecast.
If your calculator told you 2+2=7 would you just go with that because the calculator told you? Forecast models have a crap record more than 5 days out and an even worse record when big pattern changes are coming like the one next week. It makes you wonder how some people just buy into a forecast model telling the temperature of the earth in 30 years without researching the physics of it for themselves. Everything we know is based on history not the future so that is why I look at history as a check on what the models are showing. This Winter some things have been happening that haven’t happened in the past with similar conditions in place, but going forward we have this as part of the history for the upcoming years.
So anyway the pattern will be changing next week. The ridge position will begin to shift North and then eventually into Alaska. From there it may amplify down into Western Canada. With that in place there is only one place for the storms to go, underneath. We may start with a cut-off/rexblock scenario the second half of next week delaying the onset of the storms, but the storms coming behind that will have to push East with the block to the North. This morning’s GFS and Euro both have the storms starting next weekend. This pattern would also allow the storms to draw in sub-tropical moisture as they come across the ocean for some bigger snow events.
So don’t freak out run to run of the models, let’s watch this new pattern develop next week. If the ridge moves up into Alaska and then Southeast into Western Canada we know from history that the storms should then come underneath for a prolonged snow event. Stay tuned….BApost #203 of 5541/6/12 at 1:55ampost #204 of 5541/6/12 at 5:47ampost #205 of 5541/6/12 at 7:03am
Jay, how does that kind of pattern relate to when the jetstream is south of the bay area and we experience the same cold air, and storms, as Canada? The jetstream seams to act like a wall separating the cold Canadian air from the warmer southern air.post #206 of 5541/6/12 at 7:19am
go plug in the pacific region and animate the flow. The Flow is definitely returning to a more normal flow and is promising for about mid-month, 13-15th.post #207 of 5541/6/12 at 7:34am
To be honest nobody really knows why this particular weather pattern is occurring or when it will change. Did the 2 degree shift of the Earth influence it or is it a cyclic pattern? 1978 is the last time I saw this type of Weather pattern in the PNW.post #208 of 5541/6/12 at 8:45amThread Starter
I agree that mid-month (weekend after next) things are looking good to change in our favor. Sheer regression to the mean (it *has* to snow eventually) works in our favor. I'm going to be up in Tahoe with friends and family for the first week of February and when we planned it I never once considered I'd be worried about there being enough snow by then. Hopefully it won't be an issue.post #209 of 5541/6/12 at 9:01ampost #210 of 5541/6/12 at 9:41am
"It's just gorgeous. People are paddle-boarding and hiking and riding their bikes, so they're definitely in town hanging out," said Mallett, who manages the Fire Sign Café in Tahoe City, California. Lack of the cold white stuff actually brought a boost to the café's business in the past few weeks, she said."We're really busy because (visitors are) not skiing." People who would usually be on the trails all day are skiing in the morning and then coming into town, Mallett said, but she suspects the novelty of the warm weather will wear off for vacationers.
- 2011/12 Tahoe Weather & General Discussion
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