or Connect
EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › On the Snow (Skiing Forums) › General Skiing Discussion › How is winter 2011/2012 gonna be (in the US)
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

How is winter 2011/2012 gonna be (in the US)

post #1 of 31
Thread Starter 

How is winter 2011/2012 gonna be in the US? Anybody dare to guess already?

 

1 poorest ever

2 poor

3 average

4 above average

5 almost as good as last one

6 epic like last one

7 even better like last one

 

Additional. Where do you think it is gonna hit big time? Which state to ski? Or do we have to book Japan or Europe? Share your thoughts to shorten the wait biggrin.gif

post #2 of 31

I predict that the days will get shorter until late December, then they will gradually get longer.  It will snow in the mountains at least some of the time.

 

You can go to the bank on that.

post #3 of 31

I'm going long on Posaune's prediction. Incredible analysis!

 

biggrin.gif

 

 

post #4 of 31

7

post #5 of 31

I have read a few long-range forecasts that have been fairly consistent predicting that the Northwest is going to get dumped on again and with colder-than-average temps. Also, they seem to think the middle of the U.S. is going to get higher-than-average precip this winter, which would be good for the Colorado resorts. Unfortunately, I haven't read anyone stating that Tahoe would get above average but rather more likely close to normal. The ENSO (?) is neutral right now, meaning that there is no El Nino or La Nina in effect. There is a possibility that La Nina could come back for the fall and winter, which could bump up the snowfall in Tahoe since the PDO is negative right now. I don't understand this, but am rather just regurgitating what I've read. I'll be plenty happy if we in Tahoe get a "normal" snow year -- although I would really like for it to come on the early side -- say, full coverage by Dec 1 or so?

post #6 of 31

Anybody remember "The Long Winter" by Laura Ingalls Wilder? My Japanese maples are already starting turn, weeks early. Don't know if that means anything, I choose to believe it does. 6.5

post #7 of 31

scattered darkness, breaking up towards morning,

post #8 of 31

I don't think its useful to talk about weather in "the US"...

post #9 of 31

January will be colder than July, significantly so in some areas. Bottomless powder will be the standard at all the usual venues, but slush will prevail where and when expected. Other than than, it's hard to predict.

post #10 of 31

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this (I've certainly embraced this forecast);

 

ExactaWeather.com sent us over their long range winter weather forecast for the 2011-2012 winter season but first here is a bit about Exacta Weather.

Exacta Weather is a non-profit weather organisation that comprises a team of meteorologists from around the world.

Our long range specialist forecaster James Madden states that there is “a potentially record breaking US winter for 2011-2012 with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow”.

James Madden’s forecast is based on major natural factors, including solar activity, and how they impact the weather and climate on Earth. His forecasting techniques have attracted significant attention after correctly forecasting seasonal trends in the UK – and proving the Met Office wrong on three successive occasions, before they decided to scrap seasonal forecasts altogether.

Another extreme winter for many parts of the US

 

US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

 

The coldest winter in 30 years was recorded across many parts of the US during the 2010-2011 winter. Eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing records broken. Temperatures was also largely below normal averages for New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to become the snowiest January ever recorded.

 

So let’s turn to the US winter of 2011/2012.

 

La Niña cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. The changes in global weather patterns come from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

 

The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) update suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades. It is likely that La Niña will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niña (cooling) and weaker El Niño (warming) episodes.

 

Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges.

 

Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.

 

We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.

 

With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niña, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US.

 

www.ExactaWeather.com 

post #11 of 31
Thread Starter 

Now that's the information I wanted to hear biggrin.gif

post #12 of 31
Deep deep deep...good winters usually happen in groups...expect it to be as good if not better then last year
post #13 of 31

hurray!

post #14 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Posaune View Post

I predict that the days will get shorter until late December, then they will gradually get longer.  It will snow in the mountains at least some of the time.

 

You can go to the bank on that.



I'll add that .....

some people will complain that there is too much snow, while others will complain that its too warm.  Some skiers will need extra layers and powder skirts, while others will ski in tshirts and shorts.

post #15 of 31

I predict that h,mmm let me think.  Yes I predict that 2011-2012 will have more snow than last year every where in the North East except Vermont and New Hampshire.  If I am correct I will remind everyone of my extraordinary accurate prediction.   If I am wrong nobody will know that I was wrong.   biggrin.gif

post #16 of 31

Hopefully as good or better than last year

post #17 of 31

My first son was born in february 2010...

Another son expected this winter...

I wote for 7

post #18 of 31
Thread Starter 
Nice this thread made it to the 'banner' at the homepage. Even with picture. I guess I have to thank Trekchick or Philpug for placing it there :-)
Cool!
Thanks!
post #19 of 31

I hope it is as good as last year...

If it is better...OMG....!!!

post #20 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirksuchy View Post

Nice this thread made it to the 'banner' at the homepage. Even with picture. I guess I have to thank Trekchick or Philpug for placing it there :-)
Cool!
Thanks!


You can thank me for other things but this one was probably nolo.  She's on top of it!!

post #21 of 31

I'd say 5 or 6.

 

We just came back from diving today (a pre check of the Lobster's hiding spots for October's season) and there was this really cold breeze. So much so that I was thinking of putting my dry suit back on.Come to think of it I've noticed it for the past month or so. It starts in the late afternoon to the early evening till a little after sundown about 20mph. I don't recall that ever happening before in August.

 

I think "The Sierra Monster" aka The Monster, should be pretty good to skiers this year.

 

I hope anyway. Last year was freakin great. yahoo.gif

 

Especially the whole "Cows are going to Moo like Wolves" thing.


Edited by skimalibu - 9/3/11 at 8:42pm
post #22 of 31

I am going for a 6.2.  This past season was so good in CA and CO; I'll just go for "slightly colder and snowier" for this coming winter.

 

I must add that I fervently hope I don't get sick this season, as I did several times in 2010-2011.  With such a good season, we should have ended up with over 100 ski days.  However, due to having to cancel several trips, our total was closer to 75.  If this winter is as good, I hope we can make it over 100.                 snowfalling.gif

post #23 of 31

I'm thinking it'll be about like last year, which will be great!!

post #24 of 31
Thread Starter 

Well... Is la Nina letting us down?????

post #25 of 31

So far, yes, and they are still making predictions for my area that show above average precip and below average temps for January, as if ANY of that happened in December when the charts said the same thing.  My own yard is about three feet of snow less than it should be for this time of year.  

post #26 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by SquawBrat View Post

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this (I've certainly embraced this forecast);

 

ExactaWeather.com sent us over their long range winter weather forecast for the 2011-2012 winter season but first here is a bit about Exacta Weather.

Exacta Weather is a non-profit weather organisation that comprises a team of meteorologists from around the world.

Our long range specialist forecaster James Madden states that there is “a potentially record breaking US winter for 2011-2012 with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow”.

James Madden’s forecast is based on major natural factors, including solar activity, and how they impact the weather and climate on Earth. His forecasting techniques have attracted significant attention after correctly forecasting seasonal trends in the UK – and proving the Met Office wrong on three successive occasions, before they decided to scrap seasonal forecasts altogether.

Another extreme winter for many parts of the US

 

US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

 

The coldest winter in 30 years was recorded across many parts of the US during the 2010-2011 winter. Eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing records broken. Temperatures was also largely below normal averages for New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to become the snowiest January ever recorded.

 

So let’s turn to the US winter of 2011/2012.

 

La Niña cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. The changes in global weather patterns come from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

 

The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) update suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades. It is likely that La Niña will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niña (cooling) and weaker El Niño (warming) episodes.

 

Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges.

 

Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.

 

We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.

 

With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niña, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US.

 

www.ExactaWeather.com 


 

Is it fair to say these guys might want to revise the name of their website to (this is bad, I know, but...) www.notsoexactaweather.com.  Seriously though, what's the use of publishing a long range forecast if they're this inaccurate?  (Perhaps someone's morbid fascination with watching people passionate about something - us and skiing - bitch and cry non-stop when a prediction carrying so much weight of our winter dreams, crashes and burns so terribly?  Who would, who could, do something so awful??  Probably some weatherman living in Texas.)  All the technical lingo and references to Oscillations and solar activity sure sounds good, and I'm sure there was some real scientific data in there somewhere, but this particular assessment must have been completed by the intern, right?  Okay, enough with the criticism.  Maybe I'm jumping the gun.  It is only the first week of January, after all.  The optimist in me says, "winter is just starting.  We have time!"  And, "maybe this means we'll see a late season push with some April dumps, right?"  But still, off to a really, REALLY bad start.  Five days into the month, and the 10 day for Tahoe is sun and high temps.  Doesn't sound like what I read above.  And SLC and Summit Co. are looking only slightly better over a similar time frame.  So what's the deal?  I'm obviously no meteorologist, and I'm not suggesting it's an easy job for those that are. I also know from my own online research that back in the early fall this wasn't the only long range forecast that read this way, so the question now is.... WTF is causing these predictions to be this off??  What's changed, and what does it mean for the next 2-3 months?  Are we on the cusp of a major change?  Will I see some knee deep turns at some point this year, or was that Squaw season pass the worst decision of my life?  Isn't it obvious?  I'm a junkie!  If I can't ski, give me a long range forecasts to fuel my day dreams, and I need another hit!  Make it up, I don't care!  It can't hurt me any worse than this, and maybe, just maybe it'll keep me rolling until the real thing actually arrives.  I hope it's soon.  In the meantime, anyone know which religion is most influential when it comes to the weather, and if so, what's the conversion process like?

 

post #27 of 31

...my sentiments exactly....I have yet to hear any weatherman explain why this season is so bad....I mean this start is historic.... Simple chance alone would not account for this broad area of no snow...

post #28 of 31

As a meteorologist, I'd like to think that my company does a better job at seasonal forecasting. Here we have Ph.D.'s. Unfortunately, our seasonal forecasts are not freely distributed to the public. I will tell you that this year's seasonal forecast was for warm weather. The good news is that it looks like a pattern change is coming in 10 days-ish. The cold will start in the West and then work East.

 

An explanation of how we do it:

http://www.aer.com/news-events/blog/snow-advance-index-new-tool-predicting-winter%E2%80%99s-severity

 

Last year's forecast and verification

AER-Seasonal-Forecast-Winter-2010-11-US-400x188.jpg

AER-Seasonal-Forecast-Winter-2010-11-NorthernHemisphere-672x437.jpg

 

And the historical performance:

Winter-Severity-Index-699x366.gif

post #29 of 31

from what i've read of la nina is that it's supposed to be different than

last yr-- and so far is true, at least in my PNW region of Vancouver BC:

colder overall and because of that there is less precipitation (snow) .

 

..sure we had a warm front (pineapple express) roll in over the last

wk (and january is always a weird month anyway)..

 

..whistler, mt baker and mt washington doing better than local mtns (but not like last yr)

as far as mainintaining cooler temps and getting snow

(but again not like last yr)..

 

.so we'll see as the season progresses.


Edited by canali - 1/7/12 at 7:30am
post #30 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirksuchy View Post

Well... Is la Nina letting us down?????



She's a fickle B!tich!

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Skiing Discussion
EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › On the Snow (Skiing Forums) › General Skiing Discussion › How is winter 2011/2012 gonna be (in the US)