Originally Posted by SquawBrat
I'm surprised no one has mentioned this (I've certainly embraced this forecast);
ExactaWeather.com sent us over their long range winter weather forecast for the 2011-2012 winter season but first here is a bit about Exacta Weather.
Exacta Weather is a non-profit weather organisation that comprises a team of meteorologists from around the world.
Our long range specialist forecaster James Madden states that there is “a potentially record breaking US winter for 2011-2012 with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow”.
James Madden’s forecast is based on major natural factors, including solar activity, and how they impact the weather and climate on Earth. His forecasting techniques have attracted significant attention after correctly forecasting seasonal trends in the UK – and proving the Met Office wrong on three successive occasions, before they decided to scrap seasonal forecasts altogether.
Another extreme winter for many parts of the US
US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
The coldest winter in 30 years was recorded across many parts of the US during the 2010-2011 winter. Eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing records broken. Temperatures was also largely below normal averages for New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to become the snowiest January ever recorded.
So let’s turn to the US winter of 2011/2012.
La Niña cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. The changes in global weather patterns come from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).
The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) update suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades. It is likely that La Niña will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niña (cooling) and weaker El Niño (warming) episodes.
Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges.
Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.
We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.
With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niña, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US.
Is it fair to say these guys might want to revise the name of their website to (this is bad, I know, but...) www.notsoexactaweather.com. Seriously though, what's the use of publishing a long range forecast if they're this inaccurate? (Perhaps someone's morbid fascination with watching people passionate about something - us and skiing - bitch and cry non-stop when a prediction carrying so much weight of our winter dreams, crashes and burns so terribly? Who would, who could, do something so awful?? Probably some weatherman living in Texas.) All the technical lingo and references to Oscillations and solar activity sure sounds good, and I'm sure there was some real scientific data in there somewhere, but this particular assessment must have been completed by the intern, right? Okay, enough with the criticism. Maybe I'm jumping the gun. It is only the first week of January, after all. The optimist in me says, "winter is just starting. We have time!" And, "maybe this means we'll see a late season push with some April dumps, right?" But still, off to a really, REALLY bad start. Five days into the month, and the 10 day for Tahoe is sun and high temps. Doesn't sound like what I read above. And SLC and Summit Co. are looking only slightly better over a similar time frame. So what's the deal? I'm obviously no meteorologist, and I'm not suggesting it's an easy job for those that are. I also know from my own online research that back in the early fall this wasn't the only long range forecast that read this way, so the question now is.... WTF is causing these predictions to be this off?? What's changed, and what does it mean for the next 2-3 months? Are we on the cusp of a major change? Will I see some knee deep turns at some point this year, or was that Squaw season pass the worst decision of my life? Isn't it obvious? I'm a junkie! If I can't ski, give me a long range forecasts to fuel my day dreams, and I need another hit! Make it up, I don't care! It can't hurt me any worse than this, and maybe, just maybe it'll keep me rolling until the real thing actually arrives. I hope it's soon. In the meantime, anyone know which religion is most influential when it comes to the weather, and if so, what's the conversion process like?