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Jackson Hole or Snowbird spring break trip - Page 2

post #31 of 55

Quote:
I'm not convinced Tony has actually skied jh in a low snow year in march when it has been very warm. I have, and it was still some of the best skiing I've had.

 

Actually I have.  It was not a low snow year, it was an average snow year in 1986 with a 110 inch base, but at 65 degrees most of JH was unskiable.  We left after one day and went to SLC, had the same warm weather but much better skiing.  I've discussed the reasons for my opinion on this subject in some detail here before:

http://www.epicski.com/forum/thread/38275/decent-conditions-at-jackson-hole-in-late-march

http://www.epicski.com/forum/thread/43717/jh-conditions-in-late-march

 

You can post all the anecdotal reports you want about epic Jackson days in March, but most destination visitors are booking far in advance and the probability of getting deep powder anytime during a week is in the 15% range: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6822

Based upon 23 years of daily Steamboat snowfall (almost identical to Jackson in quantity, quality and distribution):

About 40% of weeks will have no days of 6+ inches.
30% of weeks  will have one day of 6-11 inches.
15% of weeks will have 2 days of 6-11 inches.

Only the top 15% of weeks will have at least one day of 12+ inches.

The top 10% of weeks will have 3 or more days of 6+ inches.

If you think I'm exaggerating about needing the 12+ day for good conditions late season, read this TR (not mine) from February 2004: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=5540

 

85+% of the time you are far better off at Snowbird during late season.   I have also experienced Jackson in optimal conditions http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1717 (thanks again to Bob Peters for making it more so) and completely understand the attraction. The original poster, unlike most destination visitors, is willing to be flexible and make the call at the last minute. 


Edited by Tony Crocker - 7/29/11 at 1:58am
post #32 of 55

How  can you take a set of statistics derived for steamboat and apply that information to jackson hole with out any caveats? BSmeter.gif

 

Powder skiing is more of a novelty than a real necessity for good day of skiing. Your point about how getting a deep powder day is the only way to get good conditions in spring is really weird to me. In general spring powder days are marginal and inlclude at least a couple transition days where the skiing is not that great (e.g. the cloudy warm day before the storm and the heavy cruddy breakable crust  left overs after the fact before the supportable corn base builds in).

 

Skiing corn (wet slop as you call it) is great fun. The fact that you don't like skiing these conditions is your problem. The fact that you assume that other people share your tastes is curious.

 

Heavy spring slop is the perfect time to take a lesson to learn how to ski the crud. If you have the proper attitude and love skiing more than you love bitching about snow.

 

The reality is that skiing a 30 degree slope with perfect powder or consistent chalk is ridiculously easy. Skiing that same slope with hard-pack, bumps, deep crud, or other variable snow can be a much greater challenge. In jackson the hard stuff starts at 30 and goes up form there. If you are not a strong skier you will get worked in jackson if you are skiing anything but hero snow. That is why people piss and moan about conditions. They got spanked and are now still butt hurt about it and choose to blame the snow rather than learning how to ski better.

post #33 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by tallklutz View Post

The joy of getting to know a new mountain is a very important element in the overall enjoyment of ski vacation for me and my wife. We've been to A/SB before and will be there again this January anyways, but we have never had the privilege to ski at JH. Reading your replies was very helpful to solidify my already strong bias  towards JH. More importantly my wife bought it too. We are less fussy about snow, but terrain is really important. Buying air tickets to SLC and then driving to JH if the conditions are good is exactly what we are going to do. Initially, I was not so hot about the idea of driving with two kids in the tow from SLC to JH and not having lodging reserved in advance. These fears were resolutely assuaged by your informative posts. I will be driving form Calgary to Kicking Horse in the middle of February anyways, which is probably much harder drive than SLC to JH, and it will be a good winter driving in the mountains practice. It also seems like a great idea to book lodgings just a few days in advance when a lot of rentals are standing empty and great deals on internet abound. If the weather sucks in JH we'll stay in LCWC or park city. BTW, it is only two weeks before we hit the slopes of Grand Teton with our climbing gear. Boy, I am glad we moved to North America.

 

Most of the drive from Calgary to KH is valley bottom divided highway but it could be snowy in mid February. Its about 4 hours from the Calgary airport to KH for an experienced winter driver who knows the road. The tricky part of the drive is between Lake Louise and KH. BTW most of my friends that ski KH do so for the access to the back country. Lake Louise is the second largest ski area in Canada and imo has the best in bounds terrain. Lake Louise does suffer from low annual snowfalls but timing is everything so it might be worth checking out.

 

Sorry for hijacking the thread, but i am responding to the OP.
 

 

post #34 of 55
Quote:
Skiing corn (wet slop as you call it) is great fun. The fact that you don't like skiing these conditions is your problem. The fact that you assume that other people share your tastes is curious.

Sorry, you've completely read me wrong on this one.  About 14% of my skiing is in April and another 9% after May 1, mostly at Mammoth.   A few TR's from the better corn days, most of them quite late in spring long after most ski areas have closed:

Mt. Baldy April 16, 2005: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=973

Mammoth June 10, 2006: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2128

40K at Mt. Bachelor April 15, 2007: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=3147

Mammoth May 23-25, 2009: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=8005

Mammoth June 19, 2010: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=8992

Mammoth July 2-3, 2011: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9727

Mt. Bachelor June 29-30, 2012: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=10254

35K at Mammoth May 18, 2013: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=10987#p69100

Also backcountry on Mt. Shasta June 17-19, 2011: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9716

 

To paraphrase the late Lloyd Bentsen: "I know corn snow, corn snow is a friend of mine, and the variable and unconsolidated crap I've seen in March at Jackson is no corn snow."   I was shocked to observe the contrast in 1986, and it boils down to simple geometry.  With north exposure the steeper the slope the better the snow preservation, but the converse is true for south exposure.  As everyone knows, Jackson is a very steep mountain, Apres Vous faces directly south and the longest fall lines on Rendezvous like the Hobacks face southeast.  Only a handful of mountains in North America even belong in a conversation with Jackson regarding steep terrain, and at all of them I've seen the majority of those steeps face north.  In one of the previous posts I also noted the Mineral Basin analogy to Jackson's exposure.  I'm at Snowbird in March every year and there are a lot of days when surfaces in Mineral are very difficult or where there is a very short time window that it's worth being back there.  And like Jackson, it's epic on a 12+ day.

 

Quote:
How  can you take a set of statistics derived for steamboat and apply that information to jackson hole with out any caveats?

A valid question.  Daily snowfall data is hard to come by, and I was curious if I could model it from monthly data to answer the questions many vacationers ask:

"What is the probability of a powder day," and

"How likely am I to find powder if I spend a week there?"

Details here: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6822

I had daily data from 3 very disparate locations, Squaw Valley, Steamboat and Jay Peak and found that monthly snowfall was an excellent predictor of the number of 6+ days and a good predictor of the number of 12+ days.  The resulting model also closely predicted the number of 6+ and 12+ days at Alta.   Jackson and Steamboat in fact have very similar snow stats:

Jackson season average 371 inches, monthly standard deviation 46.6% of average

Steamboat  season average 381 inches, monthly standard deviation 47.3% of average

They also often get the same storm patterns; monthly snowfall is 56% correlated.

I'm quite confident the frequency and incidence of powder days is comparable between the 2 areas.


Edited by Tony Crocker - 6/22/15 at 10:07pm
post #35 of 55
Believe it or not, Tony, some of the best steep terrain at jhmr is north facing. If it is 65 degrees, I don't care where you are, it is likrly to be challenging to ski anything that's had much sun, wheter it's in California, Colorado, Utah, or Wyoming. Perhaps it was only 60 degrees two of the march trips I skied jhmr, but I found wonderful winter snow, loose, dry, and moderately deep, in the north facing steep terrain I skied, and it was amongst the lowest snow years of the last thirty.

Mike
post #36 of 55
Quote:
Believe it or not, Tony, some of the best steep terrain at jhmr is north facing.

Sure there's some: Corbet's, Bivouac, Alta Chutes, similar oriented lines from Thunder like Tower 3 and Paintbrush.  But overall no more than 10% of terrain.  And virtually none on the lower half of vertical, which is close to 3/4 of the acreage.  The Granite Canyon backcountry is north-facing, but few of us tourists will ever get back there.

 

Quote = original post:
So, conditions at the top of the mountain are more important.

That depends upon the topography of the mountain.  Jackson comes to a peak at the top of Rendezvous and fans out to huge expanse lower down.  There is much more lower than upper terrain and unlike many places it's excellent quality as the fall line is so consistent.  Unfortunately that lower terrain what is most vulnerable to the sun in late season.

Quote:
The reality is that skiing a 30 degree slope with perfect powder or consistent chalk is ridiculously easy. Skiing that same slope with hard-pack, bumps, deep crud, or other variable snow can be a much greater challenge. In jackson the hard stuff starts at 30 and goes up form there. If you are not a strong skier you will get worked in jackson if you are skiing anything but hero snow. That is why people piss and moan about conditions. They got spanked and are now still butt hurt about it and choose to blame the snow rather than learning how to ski better.

I try to avoid assessments of ski ability online.  There's a long tail at the high end of the ability scale, and I have no doubt that Jackson's combination of steeps plus often difficult snow produces many formidable skiers.  But many of these "where should I take my March ski vacation" questions come from people who do not live in the West and have less experience with steeps or variable snow than I do, much less the Jackson locals.  I think it is a disservice to these questioners to assume they ski like Bob Peters and will be happy with what I experienced in 1986.  I think most vacationers will appreciate being directed to Jackson in January, when the odds of more manageable snow are much higher.  As they also are in March at Snowbird, which is not exactly chopped liver when it comes to steeps either.  I might also add that ski area management cannot assume that everyone skis like Bob Peters.  Steep runs are often closed with refrozen conditions, and Jackson's lower faces can be closed for wet snow instability.  Usually the only closed terrain you'll find at Snowbird in March is for avy control after a big dump.


Edited by Tony Crocker - 6/22/15 at 10:10pm
post #37 of 55
Thread Starter 

I agree that for someone like myself four years ago, when I just started skiing, not having a very clearly defined vacation plan was a no starter. However, since then we learned a lot about how it works and aren't as afraid to improvise a bit. Overall, as I said before, I don't really care if the snow conditions are the best. It is something you can not bank on if your vacation is planned months ahead. There is absolutely no way to know whether conditions will be good anywhere you go. But you can plan for a great terrain with a reasonable snow conditions. Like we had it last year in Taos. It was  a really bad snow year for Taos. But we had a blast because of all the great terrain they have there. On all the east facing slopes snow was bad, but most of north facing slopes had a lot of really nice powder, even though that temperature in the sun reached mid 50s every day. Anyways, they say that  Maunder(?) minimum is upon us and we are about to enter the new mini ice age. Sounds good to me, longer winters and hopefully longer skiing season in JH. Flying to JH in two days to do some climbing in GT. It is sizzling in Philly now..

 

post #38 of 55

 

Quote:
I agree that for someone like myself four years ago, when I just started skiing....

In 1986 I had been skiing regularly for about 7 years, a bit over 200 days lifetime.

Quote:
On all the east facing slopes snow was bad, but most of north facing slopes had a lot of really nice powder, even though that temperature in the sun reached mid 50s every day.

It sounds like your experience was similar to mine at Alta/Snowbird in 1986.  Would you have been happy if 90% of the slopes had faced east or south?

Quote:
we learned a lot about how it works and aren't as afraid to improvise a bit.

You're ahead of me there.  We booked a package week to Jackson paid in advance, had to pay extra to rent a car, drive to SLC and stay in a cheap motel there.  Fortunately I was able to unload the Jackson lift tickets before we left.

post #39 of 55

I don't miss the heat and humidity in Philly one little bit.  It's raining pretty hard in JH right now, but will probably slow down before you get here.  Everything should be nice and green and maybe the rain will eat a little more snow off the high peaks for you.  PM me if there's anything I can do for you.

 

Have fun in The Park!
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by tallklutz View Post

I agree that for someone like myself four years ago, when I just started skiing, not having a very clearly defined vacation plan was a no starter. However, since then we learned a lot about how it works and aren't as afraid to improvise a bit. Overall, as I said before, I don't really care if the snow conditions are the best. It is something you can not bank on if your vacation is planned months ahead. There is absolutely no way to know whether conditions will be good anywhere you go. But you can plan for a great terrain with a reasonable snow conditions. Like we had it last year in Taos. It was  a really bad snow year for Taos. But we had a blast because of all the great terrain they have there. On all the east facing slopes snow was bad, but most of north facing slopes had a lot of really nice powder, even though that temperature in the sun reached mid 50s every day. Anyways, they say that  Maunder(?) minimum is upon us and we are about to enter the new mini ice age. Sounds good to me, longer winters and hopefully longer skiing season in JH. Flying to JH in two days to do some climbing in GT. It is sizzling in Philly now..

 



 

post #40 of 55
Thread Starter 

You have a point in that in Taos more than 60% of slopes are north facing and very steep at that, which makes it so unique for blue bird days, of which it has probably more than any other place. Without this orientation, and with not great average snowfall and so far south the place would probably be rarely skiable. BTW, for people with poor eyesight (my wife) this is a tremendous advantage, there are few other places where she can see so well while skiing. The problem with snowbird/alta that it snows so frequent that she often can't see anything, at least that was our experience with snowbird. With all that being said, last year I followed on the Internet the availability of rentals in JH and at Snowbird in the last week of March/first week of April and they always seem to have plenty of deals at that time in both places. It seems that one can easily make arrangements to book a place in any of these place literally 3 days in advance. With weather services today being as reliable as they are and skiing conditions reported by skiers on  slopes (SkiReport.com) it is usually very easy to figure out whether conditions will be right a week ahead of time and make a reservation. It would be a very different story on Prez day, but the first week of April it is likely to be a cinch. The only difference is a flight arrangement and a rental car. From Philly there are no direct flights to JH anyway and driving from SLC is hardly any different than waiting for a layover in Denver or SLC and than another 2+ hours of flight and a drive from JH airport to Teton village. Obviously, it is simply easier to just fly directly to SLC and just stay at Snowbird w/o even having to bother with car rental. But JH seems to be so much more exciting than SB/A. May be because I haven't been there yet.

post #41 of 55
Thread Starter 

Thanx man. Will spend Wednesday in Yellowstone and then 4 days in Tetons.Than another sweaty week in Philly and off to Vt/NH. And then it is just 4 months before the season starts (too long).

d
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by tetonpwdrjunkie View Post

I don't miss the heat and humidity in Philly one little bit.  It's raining pretty hard in JH right now, but will probably slow down before you get here.  Everything should be nice and green and maybe the rain will eat a little more snow off the high peaks for you.  PM me if there's anything I can do for you.

 

Have fun in The Park!
 



 



 

post #42 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by tallklutz View Post

Thanx man. Will spend Wednesday in Yellowstone and then 4 days in Tetons.Than another sweaty week in Philly and off to Vt/NH. And then it is just 4 months before the season starts (too long).

d

 

Looks like your timing could be almost perfect.  Our forecast is calling for warm and dry this weekend, so your assault on the Grand might be in nearly ideal conditions.

 

Like TPJ says, there is a lot of snow up there there this year.  Have fun and stay safe.  
 

 

post #43 of 55

 

Quote:
The problem with snowbird/alta that it snows so frequent that she often can't see anything, at least that was our experience with snowbird........But JH seems to be so much more exciting than SB/A. May be because I haven't been there yet.

Weather, mix of open vs. treed terrain for visibility, Jackson and Alta/Snowbird are quite similar.  Terrain quality/challenge also similar.  Alta has plenty of challenge but is more intermediate friendly than Jackson or Snowbird.  Overall the appeal is to the same type of skiers.   I'll defer to others on the finer points of terrain as I have over 13x as much mileage on Alta/Snowbird as Jackson, and most people tend to tout the places they know very well.  What impressed me most at Jackson were a lot of long runs with low skier density on powder days. 


Edited by Tony Crocker - 8/1/11 at 9:43pm
post #44 of 55
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Peters View Post

 

Looks like your timing could be almost perfect.  Our forecast is calling for warm and dry this weekend, so your assault on the Grand might be in nearly ideal conditions.

 

Like TPJ says, there is a lot of snow up there there this year.  Have fun and stay safe.  
 

 

BTW, we had a great time in JH, the weather as you predicted was perfect and conditions were fantastic for a very enjoyable climb (upper exum route). Just could not be better. Hope for the same experience when we come back in the first week of April. What a beautiful country you guys have out there in the West. Sigh..
 


Alpenglow.JPGP1020313.JPGP1020316.JPG

post #45 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowbirdDevotee View Post

This is a real easy one.  You don't want to plan a trip to Jackson Hole anytime after about March 10th.  Much of the mountain faces towards the south and the sun can greatly affect snow conditions ANYWHERE starting about March 1st.  My friend made a mid March JH trip one year and there was plenty of slush on the lower mountain.  I think Colo would likely be a better bet at that time.  But get to JH one of these days for sure, Jan or Feb. For SLC, If you are on a budget, save some coin by staying in a $65/nt hotel room in Sandy or Midvale.  Yes, get out of the Poconos! Same here.



I'd recommend not making broad generalizations about travel dates. I don't know JH, but the resident expert is calling BS. And you did the same thing with Powder Mountain, which was equally BS.

 

It's still possible to give similar advice (i.e. I've found conditions at that time of year poor on my one trip), but making such concrete (and false) statements doesn't help anyone.

post #46 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeUT View Post


I'd recommend not making broad generalizations about travel dates.

 

For someone planning a trip weeks or months in advance, all there is broad generalizations.  Of course a storm could change everything and make perfect conditions for a couple days.

Buyer beware.  If you like slush, you can find it.

post #47 of 55

Again, I've been there in a low snow year in March without snow in weeks and with lots of warm days on the frozen days thereafter.  There was great (and I do mean great) winter snow in the north facing exposures, like Tower 3, Paintbrush, etc.  And I've skied shit conditions at Alta and Snowbird around the same time of the year.  Much as I like Snowbird (I don't care that much for Alta), I take Jackson any day of March over it.

 

I think Tony really hasn't skied Jackson in late season with a guide or knowledge of where to ski.  My 2 cents, which is about what it's worth.

 

Mike

post #48 of 55
Thread Starter 

I think that all this advanced planning, it doesn't really matter that much. Flying to SLC from Philly and than driving to Teton village for 5 hours is not that different from flying to let say SLC (or any other destination in between) waiting 1.5 to 3 hours for 2 hours flight to Jackson and 30 min drive to Teton village. The difference at best is 1.5 hour. But the  airticket price is about $500 lower for 4 people. That buys a rental car for a week. It also that much cheaper if one were to rent a car in both scenarios (which might be not necessary, but my wife definitely likes to have a freedom of a car option). The freedom to choose where to go is priceless. From what I saw this summer in JH, the terrain there is way more exciting than in SB, especially if one already made a few trips to LCWC before, but have never skied at JH. Also the potential to have the slopes empty to yourself when the conditions are good to perfect in the first week of April (iffy, I know but happens a lot), this potential is much higher in JH than in SB/A. I have been to SB in the first week of April during fantastic powder days, and there was a LOT of people on the slopes, many of them (not all of them, by any means) very smelly and unpleasantly determined to be the first out of the Gondola and make every gaper/visitor to feel inferior. As I understand, this situation is unlikely in JH, because it does not have a big metropolitan center  a short drive away, and not many visitors schedule their trips at that time. It also seems that the atmosphere there is a little more tolerant of gapers and may be even welcoming to their presence and the money they spend while there. Of course we plan to check the weather forecast and snow conditions in both places till the last minutes before flying from Philly. If it looks acceptable to great we drive to JH and book the place to stay the very last minute. If the weather does not co-operate we will stay at SB where usually it  is not a problem to rent in April either and we will endure SB/A just again (yay!! love this musty smell on a powder  morning in the Gondola). BTW, the snow coverage is already quite a bit better in SB than in JH, which is good, because we will be in Solitude  over Xmas. Really hope for the Fantasy Ridge to be open by that time (unlikely, I know).

d

post #49 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowbirdDevotee View Post

 

For someone planning a trip weeks or months in advance, all there is broad generalizations.  Of course a storm could change everything and make perfect conditions for a couple days.

Buyer beware.  If you like slush, you can find it.



alot of people like slush.  Its skis alot like powder on the right skis.

post #50 of 55

Tony's comments on Jackson have me second guessing an early March trip. I can certainly see his point about the primarily east facing aspects of Jackson. I may buy in to the fact that 5hrs north of Utah is likely to be colder, but I really do need to have conditions working in my favor to make a mountain with that much exposure be a good trip. I've seen the TR's and videos of Jackson in the spring so I know it can be good. But the truth is (as a frequent visitor to SLC myself) that warm fronts push 50 degree temps+ in to SLC. Just repeat after me, it must snow!

 

I know if it is good it is good, but I will be totally bummed if the snow @ JH on march 3rd-7th is like Park City snow in March (and not like BCC/LCC fresh pow pow snow). Pray for it to be good, right (hotel is non-refundable, flight is award points, don't even want to start to unwind this trip now).

 

Please let there be a cold front bringing in fresh prior to my arrival and during my time there................

 

In the event that my JH trip is bad, it is "only" 4 nights/5days and a grand total of 94-96 hours on the ground even (after flights). I have one day planned at Targhee and 2 at JHMR. I really do love LCC/BCC's protected pockets of snow that receives little sunlight. 


Edited by jackinthehat - 11/13/11 at 5:20pm
post #51 of 55

There's protected pockets of snow at Jackson that receive little sunlight as well.  Even when it is 55+ at the base, those slopes ski like winter snow.  And they only happen to be some of the most famous steeps at JH.  Hire a guide or instructor; they'll make sure you find good stuff.  And if it warms up, you've got corn.  Corn is second only to pow.

 

Mike

post #52 of 55
Thread Starter 

It is about a week that we are flying to SLC. I still can't decide where to go- Snowbird or JH and haven't booked any lodging, although it is not likely to be an issue anyways. How is skying now in JH? I looked at various forecasts and it looks that the weather gonna be better in the Little Cottonwoods Canyon, but who know what is really going to happen. Gonna wait another 5 days before I pull the trigger.

 

post #53 of 55

been very warm in LCC this past week, and will be again after some snow on Monday. No idea on JH

post #54 of 55

I would wait until the bitter end/last possible moment to make the lodging call.  At the moment Jackson is predicted sunny for the next 3 days with high temps in the 50 degree range.  While AltaBird temps are similar, the exposure issue would make the call a no-brainer if you were arriving now.

 

That said this has been an unusual season with LCC and mid-mountain Jackson snowfall very similar when normally AltaBird gets ~30% more.  There have been several storms that have hit Jackson and missed the Wasatch this season.  So I would still wait until the day you fly out and look at the short term forecast then.   I would want to see a prediction of at least 18 inches at Jackson before going there at this time of the season vs. AltaBird.

 

My Iron Blosam timeshare week was March 10-17 and it was warm the whole time.  Snowbird was ~30% winter snow conditions through Wednesday, warmed further to about 15% Thursday/Friday, which were still good skiing by following the sun around.  Snow in Mineral Basin, which is oriented like Jackson, was good for about a 2-hour window most of those days.

 

Fortunately I drove and was able to hang around through the weekend to score the 38 inches that fell at Alta by Monday morning.

post #55 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

 

Fortunately I drove and was able to hang around through the weekend to score the 38 inches that fell at Alta by Monday morning.



Which was the best skiing of the season  icon14.gif

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