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Colorado: Surge in Demand for Skiing Predicted in Coming Decades

post #1 of 9
Thread Starter 

Bob Berwyn reports on the anticipated demand for more ski areas in the future. 

 

 

Colorado: Surge in Demand for Skiing Predicted in Coming Decades

 

What are your thoughts?

post #2 of 9

Better get touring gear.  cool.gif

post #3 of 9

Hmm... not so sure I agree with some of their statistical conclusions, and they ignore some larger scale economic factors in play (such as a diminishing middle class with less money than previous generations).  On the other hand, haven't about 30% of the ski resorts in the US closed over the past 20-30 years?  More people skiing / riding may lead to a revival of some of these areas... hopefully that and not more lift lines.

post #4 of 9

someone is out of touch, is my thought. economics will determine the trends, for everything we do. and anyone seeing a bright future has rose tinted glasses on. this castle has been built on shifting sand, and it's time to start building it on a real foundation if we're to have a middle class ski community to grow the sport. If it happens, it will take generations, not a few years, IMO.

post #5 of 9

Wow, very little of substance in that article.  There's really only two numbers cited: a projection of "up to" 50% by 2060 and another of 20 - 50%, but it doesn't say over what time period.  I'm going to guess the 20 - 50% growth is over the next 50 years.  

 

I think that's quite realistic, and I'd say we're looking more at the high side of that than the low side.  Realistically that means we go from our roughly 60 million skier days to 90 million.  As people live longer and stay active, I think that's easily possible.  

 

I'll guarantee you that resort revenue will grow by more than 50% over the next 50 years.  

post #6 of 9
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineAmbitions View Post

Better get touring gear.  cool.gif



beercheer.gif

post #7 of 9

I'm not so sure that the demand will continue to grow based on economic concerns.  As associated costs continue to rise year after year for both skiers and the resorts, I really don't think that it will grow to the extent that's predicted.  It makes more sense that we may see a bit more growth more gradually.

 

I can say that I've not had to wait at a lift line most of the this season at Copper, Loveland, or A-Basin.  I do go on Tuesday, however.

post #8 of 9

If its priced and marketed well, skiing can grow even in a recession:

 

From the SEC today:

 

Lift revenue increased 
$53.2 million, or 18.4%, for the nine months ended April 30, 2011 compared to the same period in the prior year, due to a $34.2 million, or 
18.1%, increase in paid lift revenue and a $19.0 million, or 18.9%, increase in season pass revenue. 
prior year. Excluding Northstar-at-Tahoe, lift revenue increased $22.4 million, or 7.7%, compared to the same period in the prior year, due to a 
$13.2 million, or 7.0%, increase in paid lift revenue and a $9.2 million, or 9.2%, increase in season pass revenue. 

skier visitation was up 4.1% as both the Colorado resorts and the Heavenly resort benefited from 
significantly above average snowfall during the current season, but were unfavorably impacted by the timing of the Easter holiday which was 
in late April in the current fiscal year, versus, early April in the prior fiscal year. In addition, our Heavenly resort was also impacted by higher 
than average resort closures due to severe weather. 


Ski school revenue increased $13.1 million, or 18.6%, for the nine months ended April 30, 2011 compared to the same period in the prior year 

a 3.6% increase in yield per skier visit due to higher guest 
spend.

Dining revenue increased $13.2 million, or 26.8%, which also benefited from the acquisition of Northstar-at-Tahoe in the current fiscal 
year. Excluding Northstar-at-Tahoe, dining revenues increased $5.3 million, or 10.7%, driven by increased skier visitation and a 5.8% increase 
in yield per skier visit for on-mountain dining, as well as the addition of two new on-mountain dining venues. 

The increases in both ski school 
and dining revenue were achieved despite the negative impact of the late Easter holiday in the current fiscal year. 
Retail/rental revenue increased $18.1 million, or 13.1%, for the nine months ended April 30, 2011 compared to the same period in the prior 
year, which includes $8.5 million of incremental revenue from Northstar-at-Tahoe in the current fiscal year. 

Excluding Northstar-at-Tahoe, 
retail/rental increased $9.6 million, or 7.0%, which was driven primarily by higher revenues at our Colorado front range stores and Any 
Mountain stores (in the San Francisco bay area) which combined increased by approximately 11% as compared to the prior year. Additionally, 
our mountain resort stores experienced an increase in revenue primarily driven by retail sales due to higher skier visitation although these 
increases were tapered by the late Easter holiday in the current fiscal year. 

Other revenue mainly consists of private club revenue (which includes both club dues and amortization of initiation fees), summer visitation 
and other mountain activities revenue, marketing and internet advertising revenue, commercial leasing revenue, employee housing revenue, 
municipal services revenue and other recreation activity revenue. For the nine months ended April 30, 2011, other revenue increased $10.5 
million, or 18.9%, compared to the nine months ended April 30, 2010, which includes $6.5 million of incremental revenue from Northstar-atTahoe. 

Excluding Northstar-at-Tahoe, other revenue increased $4.0 million, or 7.2%, primarily due to an increase in internet advertising due to 
the acquisition of Mountain News Corporation in May 2010 and higher strategic alliance marketing revenues, partially offset by a decrease in 
municipal services revenue (primarily transportation services provided on behalf of certain municipalities).

post #9 of 9

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by veteran View Post
Lift revenue increased 

$53.2 million, or 18.4%, for the nine months ended April 30, 2011 compared to the same period in the prior year, due to a $34.2 million, or 
 

 

To be clear, this is Vail Resort's (MTN) earnings being reported.

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