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It's A Bomb Cyclone!

post #1 of 18
Thread Starter 

This weekend's forecast for Northern California features a "Bomb Cyclone".  Here is the current forecast discussion from Sacramento:

 

 

Quote:
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
 938 AM PDT FRI MAR 18 2011
 
 .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
 
 TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER SEVERAL EXTREMELY ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS. HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE:
 
   *FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, MODERATE VALLEY RAIN, LOCALLY GUSTY
    WINDS, AND POSSIBLY SNOW DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS.
 
   *MOIST CONVECTIVE REGIME TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
 
   *POTENTIALLY BOMBING CYCLONE OFF THE BAY AREA COAST SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING EXTREMELY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MORE
    RAIN AND SNOW. 
 

 

The prospect of a "Bombing Cyclone" got my attention.  WTF does this mean? eek.gif

 

NOAA defines a bomb cyclone is an extratropical area of low pressure in which the central barometric pressure drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. Some storms have intensified as rapidly as 60 millibars in a 24 hour period. A few bomb cyclones even develop "eyes", similar to the center of a hurricane.

 

We don't see this too often in California.  The prospect is for very high winds and convective thunderstorms, and of course LOTS of snow...FEET of snow in the mountains down to very low elevations, which means light cold powder. 

 

Some other examples of bomb cyclones were cited on islandnet.com:

Quote:

Bomb cyclones rated headlines during the1990s when several were called the "Storm of the Century" and the "Perfect Storm" by US eastern reporters. These storms generally resulted in severe blizzards forming out of Nor'easters that struck the northeastern coastal states and Canadian provinces. Many of these storms began as Colorado Lows or Gulf of Mexico lows that underwent explosive cyclogenesis, the rapid formation of an intense winter storm over a short period when they moved off the land and into the warm Gulf Stream waters off Cape Hatteras.

 

As a result weather bombs, or more correctly bomb cyclones, have been associated with the eastern North America coast and offshore waters, though they also form off the Asia coast in the Western Pacific and over the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Pacific Northwest Region of North America has seen some of its most devastating storms arise from bomb cyclogenesis.

Anyway, Sunday looks interesting, and I would guess the winds will shut down a bunch of lifts in the Sierra.  With snow levels down to 2500 feet with this cold storm the powder will be outstanding if it doesn't get completely wind-hammered.

 


Edited by Cirquerider - 3/18/11 at 2:01pm
post #2 of 18

Will this madness never end! hissyfit.gif

 

 

From the National Weather Service for my local hill at the base elevation:

 

Late Afternoon: Snow showers. High near 30. South wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 21. South southwest wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow showers. High near 29. South southwest wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. South wind between 13 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow. High near 30. Windy, with a south southeast wind 21 to 24 mph increasing to between 29 and 32 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow showers. Low around 22. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Monday: Snow showers. High near 31. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday Night: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 21.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Wednesday: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Friday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 36. 

(And the NOAA forcast only goes out seven days)

  

Edit: updated forcast as of 4PM


Edited by Mr5150 - 3/18/11 at 4:34pm
post #3 of 18

It means low pressure, which means some possibly wicked weather, wind, snow, rain, good times.  I understand a bomb to be a low pressure system that is stronger then or has lower pressure then normal lower pressure and forms rapidly. Example; normal atmospheric pressure in inches is 29.92" they are talking pressures in this event of possibly around 28.80" according to the forecast maps, I looked at the GFS to get these numbers. This is a layman, ski bum explanation. 

 

This thing looks to pound the Sierra, I would say Sunday could be a day of the dreaded wind hold, and I would guess traveling over the passes could be ugly or impossible, but Monday could be ripping over the head powder, depending on the wind. I have seen storms like this drop a lot of snow, but wind pack it so well it is like skiing groomers, big fun though. Mammoth could do really well if this tracks like some of the weather models are suggesting it will.  Looks like more coming in on Wednesday, ahh March in Tahoe= lots of snow, most of the time. 

 

post #4 of 18
Quote:
ahh March in Tahoe= lots of snow, most of the time.

Except when I was there.  Beautiful spring weather, just no fresh snow.  nonono2.gif

 

Send some down to CO for the Gathering, will ya?  You guys have enough...

 

Maybe I'm just bitter because it's 65 today in MA.

post #5 of 18

Could all this snow translate to mudslides in the summer?

 

Let me know what kind of wax is best for that and I'm totally therespit.gif

post #6 of 18


Get on a plane and head west. Looks like everyone is going to get some out of this series. 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matthias99 View Post

Except when I was there.  Beautiful spring weather, just no fresh snow.  nonono2.gif

 

Send some down to CO for the Gathering, will ya?  You guys have enough...

 

Maybe I'm just bitter because it's 65 today in MA.


 

 

post #7 of 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ske-Bum View Post


Get on a plane and head west. Looks like everyone is going to get some out of this series. 


Tempting, but this weekend's got plans already.

 

At least I get to ski for the next four days, even if two of them are a PSIA exam...

post #8 of 18

This got me thinking about how epic last season was for the East and as predicted this season was good too, but West was even better than usual.  Here is Sugar's annual totals going back several seasons:

 

Avg. Snowfall: 78"

Snowfall 2010-2011: 100"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 136"
Snowfall 2008-2009: 69"
Snowfall 2007-2008: 44"
Snowfall 2006-2007: 31"
Snowfall 2005-2006: 80"
Snowfall 2004-2005: 92"

Snowfall 2003-2004:104"

Snowfall 2002-2003:102"

Snowfall 2001-2002: 26"

 

It looks like it varies pretty widely, but last season really was above and beyond.  Is this season also the best in the past 10 years out around Tahoe?

 

It seems that great trout fishing usually follows a big snow ski season tooyahoo.gif

 

post #9 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by crgildart View Post

This got me thinking about how epic last season was for the East and as predicted this season was good too, but West was even better than usual.  Here is Sugar's annual totals going back several seasons:

 

Avg. Snowfall: 78"

Snowfall 2010-2011: 100"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 136"
Snowfall 2008-2009: 69"
Snowfall 2007-2008: 44"
Snowfall 2006-2007: 31"
Snowfall 2005-2006: 80"
Snowfall 2004-2005: 92"

Snowfall 2003-2004:104"

Snowfall 2002-2003:102"

Snowfall 2001-2002: 26"

 

It looks like it varies pretty widely, but last season really was above and beyond.  Is this season also the best in the past 10 years out around Tahoe?

 

It seems that great trout fishing usually follows a big snow ski season tooyahoo.gif

 


 

I don't know if it is the best of the last 10 yrs, it is good yes, but that 6 weeks of no snow was kind of tough to take in Jan. and Feb. Seems like we have had several good years in a row lately though. Last year I skied more powder in April then February. I will tell you what though, this last storm has a high water content that makes for awesome corn snow and great spring skiing. 

post #10 of 18
Thread Starter 

As we are one-month away from when ski areas will start to close for lack of interest, the Sierra is sitting fat with more snow than we have seen since at least 2005.  I'd have to check with Tony Crocker to see where we stand relative to the decade.

 

Kirkwood reports the annual total snow for the season is  578-584" with a base depth of 194"*230"  According to Tony's site, Kirkwood received 722" in 2004-2005, the year Tyrone Shoelaces and other did "Hospital Air".  So,we are already the best since record 2005, and will certainly pass 05-06.   This year could become "all-time". Viva La Nina!

   

98-99 591

99-00 496

00-01 419

01-02 492

02-03 480

03-04 411

04-05 722

05-06 624

06-07 330

07-08 441

08-09 455

09-10 495


Edited by Cirquerider - 3/18/11 at 4:24pm
post #11 of 18

More leftovers please.

JF

post #12 of 18


It is not too late to relocate the Gathering to Tahoe.  We have cheap hotel rooms here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matthias99 View Post

Except when I was there.  Beautiful spring weather, just no fresh snow.  nonono2.gif

 

Send some down to CO for the Gathering, will ya?  You guys have enough...

 

Maybe I'm just bitter because it's 65 today in MA.


 

 

post #13 of 18

 

This is the snow fall totals for Squaw since '93-'94, doesn't have 2009-2010 which was 561", this year so far is 526". '97-'98 always seems to stand out in my mind for some reason as a huge year  maybe because the year before wasn't that great. However 500"+ is nothing to sneeze at, however seriously doubt we will beat '94-'95 for the best ever, or since the records were accurate. 

 

 

Snowfall Totals

 

  OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE SEASON
1993-1994 0" 9" 44" 27" 114" 19" 52" 4" 0" 270"
1994-1995 0" 94" 105" 224" 23" 216" 72" 34" 12" 780"
1995-1996 0" 0" 54" 151" 131" 84" 46" 2" 0" 469"
1996-1997 0" 23" 215" 127" 22" 0" 0" 0" 0" 387"
1997-1998 0" 38" 58" 123" 195" 67" 64" 0" 0" 545"
1998-1999 7" 56" 53" 95" 132" 38" 67" 19" 0" 467"
1999-2000 0" 31" 21" 115" 130" 29" 26" 9" 0" 363"
2000-2001 44" 27" 34" 50" 117" 31" 66" 0" 0" 369"
2001-2002 0" 88" 137" 50" 31" 105" 34" 15" 0" 460"
2002-2003 0" 48" 142" 20" 39" 23" 139" 18" 0" 429"
2003-2004 20" 22" 151" 59" 80" 21" 13" 3" 0" 369"
2004-2005 60" 19" 121" 99" 38" 110" 26" 38" 1" 512"
2005-2006 4" 38" 93" 111" 37" 224" 116" 5" 0" 628"
2006-2007 3" 37" 81" 10" 140" 22" 62" 14" 0" 369"
2007-2008 10" 10' 90" 203" 82" 25" 10" 0" 0" 420"
2008-2009 0" 31" 120" 40" 141" 108" 28" 12" 0" 480"

 

Records prior to 1993-94 are inaccurate and unreliable.

 

 

post #14 of 18

So I get home from work at 5:30. Snowing hard. Just now I finished shoveling four inches. I am at elevation 4000 feet. Snowing hard, as it type. Could have a foot total, by morning.

 

I should be able to make it to the local hill tomorrow. Maybe not first thing.

post #15 of 18

I picked a heckuva year to move to Tahoe!

snowfalling.gif

yahoo.gif

post #16 of 18


What part Tahoe??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trekchick View Post

I picked a heckuva year to move to Tahoe!

snowfalling.gif

yahoo.gif



 

post #17 of 18
Thread Starter 
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR. THE HEAVY 
 RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY 
 MORNING BRINGING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND 
 2 TO 3 FEET OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SOILS ARE 
 SATURATED SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL GO RIGHT INTO RUNOFF. 
 THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED WILL CAUSE 
 FLOODING PROBLEMS OF SMALL STREAMS AND FOR LOW LYING LOCATIONS BOTH 
 IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL 
 HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY 
 OF MUD AND ROCK SLIDES.
 
 SNOW LEVELS ARE LOW THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 3500 FEET OVER THE WESTERN 
 SLOPES AND NEAR 2000 FEET OVER SHASTA COUNTY.

 

No more talk of a bomb cyclone, but heavy snow and high winds will be around on Sunday.   Busy day today.  The locals were out in force.

post #18 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ske-Bum View Post


What part Tahoe??



 


Work in Truckee, live on the edge!

 biggrin.gif

 

 

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