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Snow Pits

post #1 of 32
Thread Starter 


     I am thinking of making my first back country excursion this weekend and was wondering what you guys think of snow pits and frequently they should be done. I have a shovel, beacon, and probe and have practiced but don't really know how to do a snow pit. Is it necessary to do one every excursion? It seems like a fairly complex process.


The current plan is for me and my friend to climb Quandry on Sunday via the east ridge standard route. That is pending weather since the reports keep changing on whether or not it will be snowing. The winds are predicted to be N-NW so I don't think wind loading should be to worrisome on the side we will be climbing(PLEASE correct me if I am wrong). In addition from what I have read the trail doesn't pass through any major avalanche zones except for the bowls near the top which can be bypassed to the south.


Any suggestions as to our plan would be greatly appreciated.


P.S My friend will also have beacon, shovel and probe. we also plan to spend more time practicing at the Beacon range on Peak 8 Sat before we go.  

post #2 of 32


Originally Posted by lonewolf210 View Post


     I am thinking of making my first back country excursion this weekend and was wondering what you guys think of snow pits and frequently they should be done. I have a shovel, beacon, and probe and have practiced but don't really know how to do a snow pit. Is it necessary to do one every excursion? It seems like a fairly complex process.



So if you don't really know "how to do a snow pit", what exactly do you plan to learn just by digging one?  It doesn't sound like you've taken an avy class, and you obviously haven't been in the BC before.  Is someone knowledgable going on this excursion?

post #3 of 32
Originally Posted by jaobrien6 View Post


So if you don't really know "how to do a snow pit", what exactly do you plan to learn just by digging one?  It doesn't sound like you've taken an avy class, and you obviously haven't been in the BC before.  Is someone knowledgable going on this excursion?

My thoughts exactly.


http://avalanche.state.co.us/index.php for avalanche information. Today we are looking at considerable for Summit. I toured Quandry last Friday and everything above tree line was scoured to hard pack. We stayed in the trees. New snow (which we haven't had much of) on top of the wind scour won't have had much time for consolidation. And it is windy today so wind loaded snow will probably be present.


Note that more people are rescued from Quandry during all times of the year than any other place in Summit County. Many people aren't rescued; they are recovered. It is a very dangerous place, especially above tree line. Right along the trail there are steep chutes so that one mistep in a white out can lead to a precipitious fall.


Take a snow safety class. Trekking out on Quandry without knowledge is extremely dangerous. You haven't mentioned map or compass in your equipment list. They are absolutely essential.

post #4 of 32
Thread Starter 

I have not taken an avy class but have been doing a lot of research. ( I know it's not the same but I think I would be able to at least identify major indicators.) We currently do not have an experienced person going with us and are trying to find someone. Please don't jump on me I am trying to do this the best I know how but don't have the luxury of being able to go to a 3 day course during the week and don't know anyone with a lot of experience. Like I said we are trying to find someone and this route only has two major spots where avalanches are prone( yes I know that they can occur any where)

post #5 of 32
Thread Starter 


Take a snow safety class. Trekking out on Quandry without knowledge is extremely dangerous. You haven't mentioned map or compass in your equipment list. They are absolutely essential.

I already have a map and compass packed. I am doing my best to get to a snow safety class but do to the fact that I go to the Air Force academy sit simply is not an option for me to take any classes during the week. By not an option I mean I am not allowed to be away from the Academy until after 4:30 and have to be back by 7:50 Monday-Friday. 


I am well aware of the dangers of 14ers and how seriously they must be taken. The officer who used to be in charge of the cycling team used to be on search and rescue for the Pike's Peak area. Unfortunately he hasn't been here for over a year. 


Thanks for the update on conditions. The forecasts have been trending towards lower avalanche danger and I was hoping that they would have declined to a safe level by Sunday. Given the specific conditions on the mountain though we might call it off.


I hope nobody gets offended by this statement but the attitude on here about back country skiing seems to be hostile towards new people and discouraging. I understand that you guys want to protect people but there is a better way then jumping down peoples throats.


Masterracers I really appreciate your post and wish more people would be as helpful. It would be interesting for you guys to go look at how they do things over on some of the mountaineering websites. 

post #6 of 32

I was being quite blunt because what you don't know can kill you. I appreciate that you are doing what you can to be as safe as possible, but without at least an experienced member in your party, you are putting yourselves at extremely high risk.


Best of luck with your travels and let us know how it turns out.

post #7 of 32
Thread Starter 

MasterRacer I actually appreciated your post and wasn't refering to you specifically. It was more directed at jaobrien and other posts I have seen on the topic. In an ideal world everyone would take avy classes and go with experienced parties but teh simple facts of life are that everyone doesn't have these options and there is only so much preparing you can do before you ahve to go out and get the experience you can't get any where else. Another fact is that just because people have BC experience doesn't mean they actually know what they are doing and may have been lucky. In fact a great many avalanches have involved people who differed to the "experienced" member.


Finally it is very unlikely that you are going to change someone's mind by telling them that they are idiots so why not provide them with the info that might make a difference when they go out. 

post #8 of 32

Well, I honestly didn't think I was being hostile and I didn't think I was jumping down your throat.  I thought I was asking a very important question regarding your knowledge and preparedness.  If you want me to jump down your throat, fine, I will:


You said you don't know how to dig a snow pit, and then asked if you should do it every time you go out.  That's just a stupid question.  If you don't have any idea what you're looking at after you dig the pit, then the answer to your question is: don't bother digging a pit, you won't learn a single thing from it.  Honestly, what answer could anyone have given that would have made a difference to you?  If I said "dig a pit every time", you'd have gone out and dug a pit, and then what?  You wouldn't be able to make any decisions based on that because you don't know what you're looking for.


Nothing anyone is going to say in this thread is going to be a replacement for the knowledge that you don't currently have, and could get from a class and an experienced partner.  If it makes you feel safer though, well, best of luck.

post #9 of 32

Our posts crossed; I was typing mine while you posted.


You refer to backcountry sites and there you will probably receive the best info. My time is limited for responses so I usually give general directions, not specific instructions. In your case I voiced a strong warning. You have certain skills that you can use, but you are lacking some essential ones.


To your original questions. Snow pits aren't essential for every tour, but they are useful when you don't know the conditions first hand. They take about 15 to 20 minutes and are invaluable in understanding snow safety. Especially when you are just beginning to learn. Feeling the hard layers, the softer layers and as is the case in Summit county, the 12 inches of depth hoar at the bottom of the snowpack in many places, you will learn tons. You've no doubt read all about this. Digging the pit and feeling it with your fingers is where the learing really begins.


As to where the wind will load snow, it is not possible to tell until you are there. You can't imagine how easy it is to think you are standing over ground when you are only standing on the snow of a cornice.


I encourage you to practice the skills you need to have while on less challenging terrain. Go out and put what you have learned to the test. Dig a snow pit. Poke your pole into the snow along the side of the trail as you climb so you become accustomed to sensing the changes in snow layers. Practice with your beacon, probe and shovel. You need to find your buddy in minutes and remember, finding isn't the same as saving. Avi debris is bad stuff to try to dig through.


If you have never used your touring gear off piste, practice where an equipment failure won't be a huge problem. I've seen people show up for tours with skins that don't fit their skis. Just about anything can go wrong with untried gear so a trial run without objective hazards is a good idea.


You have learned a lot through study, but you have to practice it before you do it for real. Remember the movie Swordfish where Travolta is challenging Jackman to crack a computer while exposing Jackman to 'stresses'? Using a beacon and probe are easy when you are in the practice field. Its when your buddy is under 5 feet of snow in an area that could be thousands of square feet and it is just you who can help him that the pressure builds and you want to be certain you know what you are doing.


Wanting to go BC is natural. Its beautiful out there. The skiing can be great. Be careful. Be smart. Don't venture far beyond your skill set when your life and your buddy's are on the line.

post #10 of 32
Thread Starter 

where would you recommend going to practice these skill sets? I was attempting to find the easiest terrain to make a practical trip and from what I have read Quandry's standard route is fairly tame compared to the others in Colorado. Summit Post said that avys are fairly unusual on this route(though not unheard of) and people from 14ers.com (best site I have found on climbing them) often recommend it as a first time winter climb.

post #11 of 32

For a climb, the route might be fairly tame, but for skiing, you won't be sticking to the established trail, but rather out in the pristine untouched areas. I'll grant you a lot of people hike on Quandry in the winter, but that doesn't in and of itself mean it is a safe route. Weather changes rapidly and most of the trip is above tree line so not only snow safety but orienteering knowledge is essential if visibility drops.


Simple tours like French Gulch, Mayflower Gulch or Montezuma (all in Summit) offer easy touring with plenty of places to try things out. They each have some places where you can make some turns as well as exposed areas where you can experience the variety of snow pack. On the South side of Hoosier Pass you could try something around or beyond the reservoir in Placer Valley.

post #12 of 32
Thread Starter 

The thing is my friend snowboards and I haven't gotten all my touring stuff together so we are looking for a route that would be easy (I use that as a relative term 14ers aren't easy) to hike and since Quandry usually has a well established boot pack thats why we picked it. as far as skiing teh pristine areas we where actually planning on staying relatively close to the trail unless that isn't practical.


As far as lots of people climbing meaning it's safe I have no illusions about that. People just get lucky a lot of times. I can't count the number of times I have come off mountains thinking I was stupid for not turning around earlier only to see people just heading up. That officer I mentioned earlier once told me about finding a guy who had nothing but shorts and a t shirt on and was only carrying one bottle of water who had wandered into a snowfield on Torreys and gotten trapped up to his waist. If he had not been found he would have died.

post #13 of 32

If you are set on going to Quandry Pk, I'd consider mastersracers and other comments.  An easy climbing route or fun ski route does not always translate into a safe ski trip or ski run. Please check the caic web site and get a regional forecast for the Quandry Peak area.  Next make sure you understand the avalanche danger scale and danger rose.  Even with a good weather forecast,  pockets of  buried persistent weak layers in the snowpack can surprise even the most experienced backcountry skier.  Understanding terrain is key here, but without formal training, its easy to make mistakes with potential high consequences.   Also check the caic calendar, they offer lots of fun educational classes. On other source of information is BCA web site - mostly on using a transciever and equally important is stategic shoveling.  You might also consider slackcountry alternatives, in particular in areas that are evaluated and controlled by professionals. 

post #14 of 32

This thread reminds me of an incident, about 25 years ago, that occurred while coming down from climbing Pigeon Spire in the Bugaboos. We'd just cramponed down the steep snow couloir that descends from the upper glacier and encountered an elderly gentleman and his young grandson, wearing street shoes, light clothes, and with no gear whatsoever.  The old man inquired as to the route up to the upper glacier, and I tried in every gentle way I could think of to discourage him from proceeding.  He wasn't having it, and finally, exasperated, I exclaimed, "Look, if you go up there, you're going to die."  He went anyway. 

post #15 of 32

To the OP: If you're determined to hit Quandry then consider getting a guide.  I have no connection or even any information about these people, but I googled summit+county+mountain+guide and the first hit is a guiding service that offer ski mountaineering instruction.  You might be able to get them to put together a Quandry trip for you:



Snowpack analysis is a science and an art - digging a snow pit is only part of it, and understanding what you're looking at and for is very complex.  No responsible person could or would tell you what you need to know in a forum like this.  There's a reason Avy classes take a few days.  

post #16 of 32

Backcountry Trip Preparation

It would be helpful to understand what research you have done and what you have learned from it.

a)  What books/articles/videos/online courses/websites have you read/viewed?

b)  What are the top 10 things that you have learned so far ranked from #1 to #10?

c)  What is the complete list of equipment that you are planning to take on your backcountry trip?

d)  What other preparation have you done including medical training, type of beacon practice drills done in what type of snow, etc.?
e)  Have you seen the following 2 videos and what was your takeaway from these videos?

A Dozen More Turns - An Avalanche on Mt Nemesis in Centennial Mountains, MT by Amber Seyler
Part 1  http://www.lifeonterra.com/episode.php?id=77
Part 2  http://www.lifeonterra.com/episode.php?id=78
Part 3  http://www.lifeonterra.com/episode.php?id=79

Accident Report from Mt Nemesis in Centennial Mountains January 1, 2005    http://web.archive.org/web/20071209203300/http://www.avalanche.org/proc-show.php3?OID=5337213  

POV Avalanche Burial & Rescue - Haines Pass, AK by Chappy


Informative comments from this April 2008 incident in Haines Pass, AK at http://vimeo.com/6581009 


post #17 of 32

the simple answer to your question is, no, you don't need to dig a formal pit every time...


they are, however, a very important tool to have in the quiver to assess stability...


many informal tests are helpful as well, especially if you are familiar with the snowpack, i.e. out there often digging pits and have a good understanding of what you are looking for with those tests.  If anything surprises you then a hasty pit or a more formal snow strata test will help to understand the inconsistencies.  


admittedly, many of my days on the skintrack come with a lot more informal, on-going tests the whole way up rather than a pit.  Many informal tests will tell you about the variation in the snowpack from aspect to aspect which is really important to know.


that is the basic answer to the question...  what your question implies, however, is that you don't understand what you are looking for so no matter the formality of the test or otherwise, should you head out onto a 14er in the notoriously unstable colorado snowpack during a storm to learn...


There are many hills to learn on.  Which ones?  I don't know, I'm not familiar with summit county, but I'm guessing there are a lot of hills.  Look at one that seems fun and safe and go play on it.  


I would disagree whether or not people are jumping down your throat, perhaps enthusiastic in their answers, but admittedly your question demonstrates a level of understanding that is problematic with your endeavor.  Not only do you put yourself at risk, but the people around you.


I understand not everyone has an experienced friend to show them the ropes, luckily for you there are "friends with experience" for hire that would probably really love to get paid during this downturn.  


once again, a very quick search told me just a couple of things...


a. it's snowing this weekend, with rain/snow mix expected in breckenridge.  this is probably a high density snow to start which is pretty atypical in colo-rad-bro.  Meaning, heavy snow will be sitting on a crust (according to the above poster) and apparently all of this is sitting on a fair amount of depth hoar (again, according to the poster above).  And the snow just below the crust is very likely low density.  Sound complicated?  Maybe a pit would be in order?  Don't know how to dig a pit?  Maybe at 13-14 grand in a snowstorm isn't the place to learn from a diagram.


b. seemingly the ski descent is primarily east facing, which usually means wind loading.  With winds forecasted to be from the north (according to you,the OP) you are looking at some relatively hard to gauge cross-loading or scouring which leads to...


c. your plan to ski the ascent route isn't necessarily great.  Either stuff is cross loaded or bare or very likely both in some places.  Also, the climb appears to follow a ridge that every so slightly, rolls away.  So to stick to the fall line means to ski on top of people and the booter, poor form either way, but dangerous in low visibility or cross loading.  


d. while I'm sure it has been done in mid winter during stable, fun, blower pow, most information refers to this route as a spring ski when the snow is well consolidated.  Lou Dawson describes it that way and immediately links an avy incident involving a death.  


Considering your level of experience I would work out the kinks of kick turns and snow assessment on one of the many fun other places to ski during a storm or in the pow.  Trees offer a respite from the storm while climbing, not too mention, as my wife says, are just plain old pretty.  Wait for spring to fire off some big ol' hill like the one in your sites.  Days are long, weather is predictable, and for the most part, so is the stability.  You'll be able to ski that cristo coulior after hiking in a t shirt.


I've taken my share of first timers and one thing I've learned is that backcountry skiing is especially hard the first couple of times.  Conditions should be optimal for fun and safety and comfort until someone is used to those elements.  This one this weekend doesn't seem like the place to learn.


I back off stuff all the time when conditions aren't right.  Being open is the most important tool in your pack.


post #18 of 32
Originally Posted by splitter View Post



I back off stuff all the time when conditions aren't right.  Being open is the most important tool in your pack.


Here here nothing like an all day hike to end up turning around and going back down the skin track due to the  avy risks.

There are so many little tricks to learn finding a knowledgeable companion paid for or not will shorten the learning curve and make things you've never thought of so much easier.  Just removing skins for example, life is so much easier if you don't take off both skis at once, watched many a newbee sink to their waist and then struggle and waste energy because they just didn't know, and then the folding skin tricks in the wind.

It's your life and your ski partners and I wish you a great time in the BC but get some experience paid for or begged from a local.

post #19 of 32
Good advice here. Man, this just has alarms written all over it. Ok one more piece of advice - going above tree line always spikes the risk factor especially for beginners. Going above treelike as a newbie in a storm? Yikes.

Pick a mellower tour or get someone with some experience.
post #20 of 32
Thread Starter 

Thanks for all the advice guys. We cancelled due to the weather. WE never planned to climv in a storm

post #21 of 32

lw210: probably a wise choice. I was thinking about your original post this weekend and your observation that the community here was pretty much initially reacting with a WTF are you crazy? rather than providing coaching and guidance - a la the mountaineering board you referenced. I understand where you are coming from but I think the closest analogy would be if someone showed up on that mountaineering board saying that they were thinking of summit-ing a 14er in late October and had no previous experience climbing mountains but were experienced trail runners.


Given the the timing (late October) and no previous experience bagging summits, I would think the reaction would be "hold on there a second partner...". The same applies for ski mountaineering if only to a greater degree because it is so different up there when covered in snow and the penalty for failure is so much greater. I've taken my Avy 1 course and have a decent number of days in the BC. I think back to when I started and ask myself "knowing what I know now, should I have attempted a 14er right out of the starting blocks unless I was with someone who had experience?". The answer is no. Even now, I don't venture much above treeline unless a) I am with someone who knows the route or b) the weather and snow are good and I have great G2 on my route AND descent. As I am sure you are well aware from your climbing days, the weather can turn on a dime and become a real sh!tshow in a blink of an eye. It is even worse in the winter where just some sustained high winds can whip up a ground blizzard and drop visibility down to zero. You find yourself above treeline in those conditions and if you are unsure of your route or inexperienced things can go from bad to awful. Toss in frostbite, avy danger, cliff bands, cornices and that's a recipe for a story in the Denver Post.


Can you do it? Sure. Should you? Probably not. The thing is, there is no substitute for experience. I actually have a personal beef with the whole way we teach snow safety in this county anyhow. Fresh Avy 1 travelers are among the more dangerous out there because the Avy 1 course gives them the tools to talk themselves into just about any situation IMHO. Avy 1 just gives your the diagnostic skills, not the context. You'll see when you take it but the answer to almost 80% of the questions is, "it depends". The only way you build context is through experience and that's best done incrementally.


The Euros have a better system IMHO - a decision tree if you will. You know learn much about snow physics and mechanics, but it keeps you from making bad decisions. Anyhow, that's my personal take.


So I would take the advice offered here. Either get a local to go up with you, hire a guide, or try hitting some lower risk tours first. I'd actually recommend #3. It doesn't sound like your partners are fully equipped - that's a problem and should be remedied. But get out there on stuff without as much exposure. Get a sense of the snow pack. Get a sense of route finding. Learn the mechanics - kick turns, mounting ski crampons quickly, stripping skins without removing your skis. Just get comfortable out there and with your partners. Because, when something unexpected happens (equipment failure, weather, snow pack, injury) you'll be much better prepared for it and that can mean the difference between a good story best shared over beers or a headline.


Anyhow, enough awfulizing. I think you get the point. Best of luck dude and if you head over my direction (Crested Butte), I'll take you out and hit Red Lady or the like weather and snow permitting.


One last thing - check this article out. This was from early in the season and the dudes knew the area. Yes, they were unprepared without avy gear but the point I am trying to make is how disoriented they ended up getting. http://www.crestedbuttenews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2907&Itemid=40

post #22 of 32
Thread Starter 

Que thanks for the great information and due to the scheduling limitations put on us as cadets me and a friend are looking into the possibility of getting someone to come and teach an avy course at the Academy.


Having been in situations where people present ideas that seem crazy before I get really concerned with how people react on the forms. I understand that people are trying to voice their concerns but when people get the standard WTF are you crazy reply it often turns them off from what is being said. Especially if it's just a your inexperienced/unprepared and thats the only reason given. People feel that the person isn't really listening to them and just push the response to the side. On the other hand if an answer is provided pertaining to their actual situation they are much more likely to listen even if essentially the same thing is being said.

post #23 of 32
Thread Starter 

Had an interesting learning experience at Breck on Sunday. Me and a few friends where some of the first down Lulu's in the horseshoe and managed to trigger a mini slide. The slide was nothing to serious but enough to knock someone off their feet.  It was a slab a few inches thick and fractured under my friend as he was coming down. He managed to get off the slope without it sliding but a friend directly above him caused it to slide when he tried to get around the fracture.


The snow up there was pretty heavy and gave me a good chance to inspect some different loading patterns/ This happened after the avy control which by the debris at the bottom had triggered a couple slides. Also saw them trigger a pretty nice slide over by Magic carpet. Interesting learning experience and kind of a wake up call as to how difficult it is to predict what is happening with teh snow pack  

post #24 of 32
Youre right. That is actually great experience to have. Aside from looking at the snowpack and layers, pay attention to what the terrain looked like when it failed. Not just the slope angle but also the underlying contour. Convex rolls or to a lesser extent concavities are prime culprits in triggering slides. You can be skiing and otherwise safe slope but a convex roll kicks off the slide. We as skiers kinda gravitate to them because it breaks up the line and makes it more interesting. Like moths to a flame... I remember a descent earlier this year that at the bottom we were critiquing our tracks and my partner pointed out that I basically had gone out of my way to hit every convex roll possible. It was a low danger day but I realized I had done it without even thinking. Something I definitely need to keep in mind for moderate or considerable days.

Also good that you saw some wind loading. That too can be the difference between a great run and a "holycrap" moment. Sounds like you are really getting into this. If you find yourself my way give me a shout.
post #25 of 32
Thread Starter 

Yeah I am. I find the whole thing really intriguing from an intellectual as well as a safety stand point. I hope to maybe get some more practice time at the beacon ranges this weekend as I am not as fast as I would like to be with it. Any recommendations on a snow study kit? 


Just checked the forecast and this wind is creating some pretty crazy snow packs in the summit area everyone stay safe and be careful, there have already been some near misses already this week

post #26 of 32

lonewolf - 


Another option for you, in addition to getting yourself and your friends into an Avy 1 class, is to look into the Colorado Mountain Club.  The Colorado Springs section is a pretty friendly bunch.  Once you have your cert and your avy equipment, you can sign up for tours with experienced trip leaders on some mellower terrain than what you're considering.  You will learn a bunch AND you'll meet some potential new ski partners who have more experience than you do.


You don't only have to look at trips from the Colorado Springs section... I know that folks from the Boulder section lead ski trips, as well, and in all likelihood the Denver group does too.  I haven't lived in CO for a decade and so my information may be out of date, but they were doing these trips when I lived there and there's no reason to think that they have stopped.


Good luck.  I'm glad you bagged on your Quandary trip.  Backcountry skiing is a banquet of learning opportunities, but you have to work through some broccoli before you get to the apple pie.



post #27 of 32
Thread Starter 

Mountaingirl I would love to be able to take a lvl 1 avy class but I can't. They are all offered with at least one day during the week and I am required to be at the academy until the end of classes. I can't just take a day or two off I'm not allowed to. That's the whole predicament  

post #28 of 32

I always suggest reading "Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain" by Bruce Tremper. Taught me a lot about what not to do, where not to go and what to think about when I'm out there. I'm still dumb ( no avy course yet) but have a very experienced partner. It's good to be very cautious with some knowledge to back up your observations.  Watch the weather and avy reports. Then, dip your toes in the pool so you get some experience on managing the gear and you travel. Keep your goals low. Ask questions at the trail head or from those you meet who are going higher. You wouldn't just go to ground school and then try a carrier landing I'm sure. A while back, my mentor was turning back from a planned trip as avalanches were raining down all over. He met a group from a climbing club all decked out in the gear and with avy school behind them. "Not a good idea to travel up there today" said my friend. "Well, did you dig a pit?" they kept asking emphatically. "Er, no, didn't have to". Snow pits are a useful tool but only one small piece in being safe out there. A lot more to know before you start digging.

post #29 of 32

Sorry, thought I read upthread that you were working on getting somebody out to AFA.


Talk with the Colorado Avalanche Center.  We've put on custom classes out here, since we live in BFE.  There's a good possibility that CAC can hook you up with an AIARE instructor who can put together a class for you.  You might also contact National Ski Patrol, the NSP Level 1 class has a little different emphasis than the AIARE class (I've taken both) and both are very good.  Perhaps an NSP instructor might be tempted to do a custom class with you.  You wouldn't get a piece of paper out of an NSP class unless you're a patroller, but you'd get the knowledge which is what you're after anyway.


If you can get eight people or so together you can make something like that happen - we did.

post #30 of 32
Thread Starter 

hmm yeah we talked about but had no idea who to contact and the thing is it's hard to get cadets to commit to something thats probably gunna cost over $200. I wouldn't be able to gaurantee numbers

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