Just how bad is the ski business this year?

I was at Sugarbush yesterday and was amazed how empty they were. Sure, conditions were lousy (12 degrees after heavy rain the day before), but still...

Last year when I skied Sugarbush I had to park in the fourth parking lot. Yesterday we were halfway back in the FIRST lot.

I read a story in the Economist that said the Rockies were hurting because east coasters were driving to NE instead of flying.

Empty slopes are great for one year, but I don't want my favorites to go out of business!

Is anybody skiing this year?

"(12 degrees after heavy rain the day before)".

I share your surprise that there weren't long lines.

Yeah, it's a mystery.

I was at the Mt Washington Hotel last Fri, Sun & Mon and they were giving rooms away for free, practically....all that pow and no people....$99 for room, lifts, breakfast in the grand ballroom...........lifts and breakfast alone were $99, thus the room for free........they said they had tons of rooms at that price............empty...........

okemo was pretty empty, especially christmas day but thats no surprise. terrible conditions, which is really a shame right after after they had all the pow (i came up Wednesday, missed the pow but just in time for the rain)

I was surprised how empty it was Christmas Day, from what I did hear there were record numbers at Chinese Restaurant and Movie Theater in Rutland though .

Kidding aside, our numbers at the ski shop are actually up this year.

Are you finding that the people that are coming are more willing to spend money? Or is it some other factor?? Just curious....

Hey, on the upside, my favorite runs (no I won't share) are empty!!!! On the downside, this economy is really hurting the industry. Rentals are down, lodging is down, this in turn will hurt the R&D side of our industry. Come on make your friends spend some money on skiing!! It will make them forget about their foreclosure and the amount of money they lost in the market.

Now I'm depressed and need to ski. Wait a tick...I think I'm onto something. Quick, everyone ski and we'll all feel better

skierhj, I like the way you think

I've been quite surprised at the lack of lift lines at my local hill.
I've also been happy that the fresh snow we've been getting hasn't been tracked out early. The Tree stashes that the locals hold dear have been untracked when we get to them........different for sure.

Oddly enough, the ski shop at Crystal Mountain has been extremely busy. I want to get an apt with my boot fitter to get foot beds. He's been crazy busy.
Go figure

If only crystal had their demo shop open I'd have been there today and tomorrow! I got burned yesterday and had to ski on terrible, untuned, core-shotted rentals. Running up to Bellevue tomorrow to hopefully get some 4x4s to try out for Monday, and so I'm not stuck skiless again!

Qantas have finally dropped their cross-pacific flight costs to match United, apparently people aren't flying now. United dropped theirs a month or more back, which was interesteing. The US-Australia route is a duopoly, united and Qantarse have it sewn up. United sank their prices to 2 years-ago prices back in November, in contrast to Qantarse who hadn't, up til a week ago.

so with my credit cards clutched in my paw, I'm off to grab a seat on one of them. Off to join the Gathering at Jackson Hole.

Pre-season sales were down at the shop I frequent at HV in Elicottville. They were expecting a boost during Christmas week, not sure how it worked out.

Most folks I know who ski, especially with families, say they are not taking the usual western trip this year and plan on taking one or two small trips by car to VT.

Nothing odd, its just Economic reality. We are in a recession that is supposed to be long and protracted. I suspect the industry will be hit the hardest next year as this recession is supposed to keep going through 2009. According to the 'experts', the economy won't start to rebound until mid-2010, when the housing crisis starts to abate.

Mojoman - I'm not surprised business is down. I'm just dismayed how far it is down. (And I don't even work in the industry.)

We will hve to wait to see the industry figures. They don't usually post them until May or June. That numbers will be down is a given. The question is, by how much and where? I still think next season is where the real damage will take place.

Obviously, the bulk of the slump this year will be in visits to high-priced destination resorts. With all the job cuts going on and no end in sight, not too many families are going to be giving priority. Counting in airfrare and loding, you can easily spend $10,000 for a family of 5.

For many families, skiing is now a very high priced luxury that can easily be set asside.

Outside of the hardcore, and with places like Disney offering special incentives and such, I think people might be finding cheaper winter vacation activities and destinations. My brother is taking his wife and child to Disney, with lodging, meal tickets, and vouchers for the whole week for only $520 per person. If only the ski industry would do something like this.

Next year, I think everything will be hit -- gear, as well as resort visits. The biggest thing the ski industry has going against it right now is the rediculously high price tags associated with the destination resorts. They need toto get creative with incentives -- and no, I don't mean a free parking voucher at Vail if you purchase 7 days of loding at $1,200 a night. They are going to have to get much more creative than that -- by about $700.

So since you seem to be on the inside track, do you think this is going to be a North America thing, or the skiing industry worldwide is going to be hit hard next year?

The reason I ask is because I'm taking an instructor course this winter through April, so next season is going to be my first full time season in North America if I decide to come back to this hemisphere for winter 09-10.

A little worried is an understatement...

Wait until after MLK day, after the JumboTronguration thing is over and done with.

I am just giving an opinion. I don't have access to any numbers or projections. I wouldn't base any decision on what I have to say.

It's not going to be a catastrophe, but there will obviously be an impact on the industry. Recreation and associated travel is always negatively influenced by a recession. Its too early for anyone to make projections or estimates about this year, let allone next. The season has barely started.

Just knowing how reccessions influence spending and travel, I think it is a given that there will be some sort of negative impact. Many skiers will cut some corners and spend less this year. Many families might just opt out entirely, due to the cost.

Given that we are now hearing that the recession won't end until 2010, I think it's safe to say next season will be worse than this year. Every time there is a new news report about major layoffs, people become frighened and clutch their wallets, afraid to spend unneccesarily, fearing they are next in line to get sacked.

The best-case scenario is the recession is not as worse as projected and the housing market picks up in 2009. The worse case is the dire projections are true and it won't be until mid-2010 that things start turning around.

Let's just say, if I owned any ski industry stock, I wouldn't be waiting for the numbers to come out before making a decision on selling. I would have already sold.

Meh. Worldwide, shmerlwide. Get a cert and teach at a destination resort, you'll be as OK as anyone else.

It's the instructors at small hills that are going to get hit big time.

I absolutely agree!

The airline is finally doing that. I grabbed a sub-$300 flight from New York to Jackson Hole for the gathering. Am also comtemplating another sub-$300 ticket to SLC. I'm asking for time off but not booking anything for late March to early April. I just know the discount HAS TO be there. Big ones too, when the time come near.

The resorts has an uphill battle in this "blinkmanship" game. I wait and wait and wait for the price to drop. For us less hardcore skiers, we can wait for the big discounts. But for resorts, they need the cash flow sooner rather than later. With a lot of people like me, who anticipate a big discount, and holding off booking so we can snatch up last minute deals, early season is going to look extra bleak from the industry's prospective. With SOME skiers skiing less, it's the resort that offer the biggest discount and best value that gets the remaining skier traffic and make it semi-healthy into next season. I hope the industry reads here though.

So yeah, the recession is definitely here and money is going to be tight for us skiers (and ski industry as well). But that doesn't mean I need to ski less. I only need to ski a lot, for a lot less!

Diehard skiers will still get in all they want by purchasing the passes. The majroity of income for the big resorts comes from lodging and incedental expenses, however. Lift tickets and passes are but chump change in the larger picture. To come out ahead, places like Vail, Aspen, and Telluride need to fill up the rooms, not the slopes.

Ski gear is relatively cheap compared to what it costs to use that gear, for the average destination skier who does not live close enough to a resort to purchase a pass. I think these skiers will just adjust their trip habits and perhaps stay closer to home or simply opt out this year, and perhaps next.

The resorts will still get their share of business but I suspect the end results will show this was not anything like a typical season when the sales are added up in May.

Its way too early to even be thinking about doom and gloom. I dont think they are overly concerned at the moment. Having a down year is no big deal in the larger picture. It happens. It's when you have a down year followed by another down year that's even worse when things have the potential to seriously wreak havoc on your bottom line and ability to stay afloat.

As I said earlier, I believe the period to watch is next season. That's when we might see some real damage, if things get as bad as the talking heads are claiming. Then again, the same talking heads kept changing their assesments of the economy just six months ago and haven't got much right so far. Maybe the economy picks up and starts coming together sooner, in 2009. Who knows.

Regardless, this might be a time for self-examination on the part of the resort industry, and consumers who have been maxing out their credit lines and cards, living beyond their means. Recessions, especially big ones like this, tend to bring this type of introspection out to the forefront. People start thinking about their overall spending habits into the future.

It's really the excess credit culture that has placed us into this mess. Seeing all this, the big resorts need to understand that this is likely going to knock some sense into consumers and they are going to be more reluctant to put big tag items on credit cards(like $7,000 ski vacation packages), even when things get better. I think a major shift in spending and credit habits is going to come out of this, when the dust settles. Rest assured, the days of quick, easy credit are over. There are going to be regulations out the gazoo.

I know I'm not! I watched CNN for a few minutes the other day and it scared the living $hit outta me! I'm spending the rest of the winter with the doors locked and the lights off - crouched in my kitchen with a shotgun pointed at the door!

I've decided this is all Al Gore's fault. If he hadn't invented the internet, we wouldn't have everybody looking at online snow reports, accuweather, weather.com and resort webcams. Much ofthe lodging here at STowe was sold out a week ago. As soon as it started to rain people were bailing as fast as they could.. Now it rained like crazy yesterday and it was 55 degrees today, but the skiing was good. Skiing is an outdoor sport for god's sake! We have weather! People should just deal with it! I've stopped looking at the weather that way I can't be disappointed.

PS - if it snows people will ski.

PPS - those people will complain about the "bad grooming".

Is there a magic knock code we should use when we visit?

One of my students today was telling me about a ski trip they have coming up that is $700/person for seven days and includes lodging, lifts, and airfair. I'm thinking it was Vail. That seems like a really good deal

I'm gonna call BS on that one, granted I have no real expert knowledge of the ski business or facts and figures, but I have stayed at a Holiday Inn before.

I think that people will be more likely to stay closer to home and ski (plus take lessons), versus going to a large (hence expensive) destination resort.

Especially beginning skiers. Why fly across the country, spend uber bucks on lifts and lessons if your just gonna be hanging out on the bunny hill. Go to a small hill, spend less to get there and spend less once there. Then again beginning skiers may not do any of this, because a recession is not exactly a great time to pick up a new hobby.

As far as more advanced skiers go, I could see some foregoing lessons due to the economy, but this may hit across the board.

Those with the cash will do it either way, but they are probably going to be at a destination resort.

I just see the local hills doing better since people won't want to drop cash to travel. Whether this translates to lessons as well is debatable.

(Damn the Libra in me!! I try to make a point and end up backing up the other point in the process.)

There was a news report here a few weeks back, that Switzerland was having a bumper powder season and that skiier numbers were very healthy, but it mentioned that fewer Americans were skiing in europe this season, but that more euros were getting out in it.

The Bush is doing great busnesswise this season, considering. Season passes up 17% over last year. Yesterday with the warm temps and no rain until the afternoon the parking lot was full. Mellon was less busy but that's pretty normal vs LP. Lost some terrain over the weekend but should be back by the end of the week. It's 31F right now but below 0F in a few days.

Maybe the day after Xmas is a travel day, esp considering where New Years falls in the week means a lot of people have the whole week off.

I really enjoyed conditions on the 26th. The natural snow trails were thin cover but open (BIG PROPS to Sugarbush for letting us make our own decisions!), fun to ski, and even had good snow in places. At the end of the day we did a couple of laps on the intermediate trail they were blowing snow on -- wonderful.

All in all, I really, really like the attitude of the new management at Sugarbush. Hope they do well.

Our small hill has been very slow for lessons. I've had 1 lesson so far this year.