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This weather...

#1
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8/12/08 at 6:19am
  • Joined: January 2008
  • Location: Springfield, MA
  • Post Count: 1,499
I've been reserving my anger and frustration with the pummelling we've been recieving all summer. My riding season, fishing season and beach seasons have all been met with thunder, lightning and dark clouds. Most of the time we've been getting 2-3 separate bundles of thunderstorms a day! Why aren't I angry, you ask? Because if this continues into the winter, it could be the most *ahem* epic winter ever- even better than last year! Hell, I could have fresh pow four days a week EASY if this trend continues! So instead of being grumpy, I picture the flakes and I get excited... Yeah, I wish I could ride my motorcycle but alas I am looking at the silver lining to the clouds here.

Any bets? Will it carry through to the winter? How has the weather been elsewhere in the country? How do you feel this winter will be?

My bet is that it will be the best winter on record, at least in the northeast. As I write this, I'm wearing long pants for the first time in months and cool, crisp air is coming through my office window... It's enough to make a guy get out his skis and start fondling! So what do YOU think?
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#2
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8/12/08 at 7:04am
  • Joined: May 2007
  • Post Count: 221
Yup! Pouring down here in Europe too. The jet stream hasn't been shoved up to the north this year, so it's just one Atlantic weather system moving in after another. I read that this had to do with "La Nina" in the Pacific, but, whatever: I agree, the real question is are we going to be rewarded with a really snowy winter?
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#3
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8/12/08 at 8:12am
  • Joined: January 2008
  • Location: Albuquerque, NM
  • Post Count: 575
The SW has been as wet as the rain forest this summer. I think we broke Albuquerque's record for precipitation in July and basically every afternoon we have big clouds rolling in.

I don't know if there is any correlation between a strong monsoon season and an epic winter, but I can only hope that is the case. Paging Tony Crocker for the stats...
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#4
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8/12/08 at 9:59am
  • Joined: January 2008
  • Location: Springfield, MA
  • Post Count: 1,499
Seriously! It seems like everybody's getting hammered on by storms... One can only hope this will translate into buckets and buckets of snow once old man winter wakes up...

Does anyone know the rain to snow conversion for inches? Isn't it like an inch = a foot? If someone can give a good conversion equation (maybe accounting for water % so each region can be accurate?) I'll definitely start another thread to see who would be getting dumped on if it were bizarro summer. Rainfall totals should be easy to get...
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#5
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8/12/08 at 10:31am
  • Joined: January 2008
  • Location: Albuquerque, NM
  • Post Count: 575
I dug the information for Albuquerque's precipitation from the NWS:
Quote:
There was 3.38 inches of rain at the Sunport in July 2008, which was an impressive 2.11 inches above the normal of 1.27 inches. The 1.18 inches of rain on the 22nd was a record rainfall for the date. The 3.38 inches for the month ranks as the 2nd wettest on record since 1931 and 4th wettest since 1892, and 10th wettest of any month since 1892!
From what I found in Google, a good rule of thumb is 1''rain = 10'' snow. That would mean 34'' of snow in the month which in the city would be absurd! I remember the biggest snowstorm I've seen in Albuquerque on Dec 06 dropped 10'' in the city and basically everything shut down for two days. It made for epic Xmas skiing once the roads opened, on the top of my head I remember the mountains getting anywhere from 35'' to 60'' in a two day span.

Dude, you're not helping to ease my snow cravings!
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#6
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8/12/08 at 10:47am
  • Joined: March 2008
  • Location: New York City
  • Post Count: 781
I heard that last year's great snow had to do with it being a La Niña year, but that's just hearsay...can anyone confirm or deny that? The conclusion being that if the mounds of precipitation last year were due to a cyclical weather effect, then this year just might not be as good...not to rain on anyone's (ski) parade or anything.
More Ovaltine, please!
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#7
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8/12/08 at 10:49am
  • Joined: January 2008
  • Location: Springfield, MA
  • Post Count: 1,499
Wow, you may like this... Here's a recent record broken in "Woostah", Courtesy of the NWS, of course...

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
120 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008


...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT WORCESTER ON JUNE 23RD...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.8 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT WORCESTER YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.76 SET IN 1934.


Yeah, the old record was .76" and is replaced by 2.8"... I'd say that 28" of snow in a 24 hour span would constitute as a snow day! WOO-HOO!!

Where can I get season rainfall totals? I haven't got all day to navigate that website can someone tell me???
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#8
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8/12/08 at 11:00am
  • Joined: October 2003
  • Post Count: 10,814
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoWork View Post
Seriously! It seems like everybody's getting hammered on by storms...
Meh, ours are -over- in 20 minutes and we've had a string of absolutely byoootiful days otherwise.

4 weeks ago I was fighting heatstroke going outdoors at dusk, now it's no-AC-windows-open at noon.

Now on Mondays.

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#9
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8/12/08 at 11:12am
  • Joined: October 2002
  • Location: Washington
  • Post Count: 1,660
We're having a much more summer-like summer than last year. I'm not complaining.

Of course, we still have last season's snow to ski on.

PS - to keep your fantasies alive, DO NOT visit the NOAA climate prediction center pages.
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#10
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8/13/08 at 11:46am
  • Joined: March 2005
  • Location: Glendale, Ca.
  • Post Count: 891
La Nina peaked in FEB/MAR and quickly dissipated over the next 3 months. Readings have been neutral since MAY/JUN.

Average water content of snow is 6-7% in Continental mountains (Colorado, Alberta), 8-9% in Intermountain (Utah, Tetons, Selkirks) and 10+% in Coastal mountains.

Ratios in lower areas or the Northeast are more complex, because we know that it does rain as well as snow in the winter in those places. So the ratio of water to snow on top of Mt. Washington, NH for example is 17%. You would need to separate out the rain days to see what the ratio was for snow only.

With regard to current weather, I have two comments.

1) Weather is volatile. It never makes sense to assume next month's weather has a bias from normal average/standard deviations based upon what's happening now. That goes many times over for next winter based upon this summer.

2) Then you get into the more controversial topic of long term weather trends. We all know about the predictions of warming trend. The opposing view is that the current unusually long period of low sunspot activity portends cooling weather. That view is supported by the past year, but see #1. One year is a far insufficient time period to draw any conclusions. A decade from now we might think differently.
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#11
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8/13/08 at 1:05pm
  • Joined: September 2007
  • Location: Mouth of the LCC => Heaven on Earth.
  • Post Count: 507
It's been nice here. Dry, but that's normal. It hasn't been nearly as hot as last summer though. Most days lately have topped out in the upper 80's at my house, last year I had lots of 100+ degree days. Snowbird is really beautiful this time of year. I hiked up to hidden peak from snowbird center a few days ago. It's very nice.

How knows about this winter? I'm not sure if there's a correlation to summer temps or not.
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#12
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8/15/08 at 10:27am
  • Joined: August 2006
  • Location: Nashua, NH
  • Post Count: 17
Funny, this is just what I was talking about with my wife a about a week ago... If this weather continues with snow in the winter, not RAIN, things could be really good.
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#13
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8/15/08 at 10:35am
  • Joined: February 2005
  • Location: Arizona
  • Post Count: 240
I agree with Simonbda - Our Monsoon Season here in Arizona has been one of the wettest! I'm hoping that makes for more snow this winter!
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#14
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9/11/09 at 1:45pm
  • Joined: September 2008
  • Location: Brazil, São Paulo
  • Post Count: 171
And Utah claims to have the greatest snow on earth...

Ok, 1%, 2% more water content then Colorado but more snow records...


Where would be the place with the driest snow on earth?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

Average water content of snow is 6-7% in Continental mountains (Colorado, Alberta), 8-9% in Intermountain (Utah, Tetons, Selkirks) and 10+% in Coastal mountains.
 
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#15
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9/11/09 at 2:51pm
  • Joined: June 2001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post

2) Then you get into the more controversial topic of long term weather trends. We all know about the predictions of warming trend. The opposing view is that the current unusually long period of low sunspot activity portends cooling weather. That view is supported by the past year, but see #1. One year is a far insufficient time period to draw any conclusions. A decade from now we might think differently.

Yep this guys a Meteorologist.
Antarctica has the driest Snow.
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#16
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9/11/09 at 3:50pm
  • Joined: September 2008
  • Location: Brazil, São Paulo
  • Post Count: 171


Quote:
Originally Posted by slider View Post

Antarctica has the driest Snow.

And the longest season as well...
but they should invest more in costumers service and ski-in ski-out chalets


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